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AceTraderFx Mar 3: Daily Market Outlook on Cross - EUR/JPY
DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 139.50
02 Mar 2014 23:49GMT
Despite Fri's rally to 141.11, intra-day gap-down
open to 139.39 suggests choppy trading below Feb's
peak at 141.29 would continue with downside bias n
below 139.12 would extend weakness to 138.79 before
prospect of rebound later.
Sell on pullback with stop as indicated, above would
abort n risk gain to 140.78 but 141.29 would hold.
AceTraderFx Mar 3: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11580
03 Mar 2014 07:53GMT
Intra-day breach of last Tuesday's low at 11585 signals
erratic fall from 12275 has once again resumed and
further weakness 11500 would be seen b4 recovery.
Hold short with stop as indicated and only above
11660 suggests temp. low made, 11700.
AceTraderFx Mar 3: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major - USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
03 Mar 2014 00:47GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.76
55 HR EMA
101.95
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Oversold
13 HR RSI
30
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
102.83 - Feb 21 high
102.30 - Fri's high
101.72 - Thur's low (now res)
Support
101.27 - Intra-day low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
100.19 - 61.8% r of 96.94-105.45
. USD/JPY - 101.37... Although the greenback traded sideways initially last
Mon, price weakened to 102.01 on Tue b4 staging a rebound to 102.61 Wed. Renewed
selling there on risk aversion pressured the pair lower to 101.55 on Fri, then
to 101.27 in Australia today due heightened political tension in Ukraine.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, intra-day break of key sup at 101.38
confirms the correction fm Feb's 10-week low at 100.76 has ended at 102.83 (Feb
21) n as price is trading below 21h n 55h EMAs, consolidation with downside bias
remains for erratic decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 to resume n yield re-
test of aforesaid low, break wud retain bearishness for further weakness twds
100.19, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of the rise fm 96.94 to 105.45. However, as
hourly oscillators wud be in o/sold territory on such move, sharp fall below
there is unlikely to be seen n psychological sup at 100.00 shud hold n yield strg
rebound later this week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis n continued political tensions in Ukraine,
selling on recovery is the way to go. Only a daily close abv 102.30 wud abort
bearish scenario n risk gain twds 102.61/68 but 102.83 shud hold initially.
AceTraderFx Mar4: Euro falls on risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine
Market Review - 03/03/2014 22:04GMT
Euro falls on risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine
The single currency fell against the dollar and the other major currencies on Monday as fears over the growing threat of war between Russia and Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to send troops into the Crimea region over the weekend sparked a broad based selloff in assets perceived as risky.
Euro 'gap-down' opened in New Zealand on Monday after rising to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.3825 last Friday. Price fell to 1.3755 before rebounding to 1.3793 ahead of European opening on short-covering. Later, despite release of a mixed manufacturing PMIs from euro zone and its members countries, euro fell further versus dollar to 1.3726 in late New York on dollar's broad-based strength except versus the Japanese yen.
In euro zone, data on Monday confirmed that the region's manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 in February from 54.0 in January. It was the first dip in five months, highlighting the fragile nature of the recovery in the euro area. Separate reports showed that the rate of decline in France's manufacturing sector eased in February, while activity in Germany's manufacturing sector rose for the eighth straight month.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar remained under pressure after opening lower from Friday's close of 101.80 to 101.32 in Monday's New Zealand due to broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion after Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to invade Ukraine. Price briefly staged a short-covering rebound to 101.67 in Australia before falling further to 101.20 in Europe. Later, dollar climbed back to 101.57 after release of a slew of encouraging U.S. economic data in New York morning and then traded sideways in New York afternoon.
On the data front, U.S. personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December. U.S. personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%, however, December data was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
Cable traded in a choppy fashion on Monday. Although price moved closely with euro in Asia and rebounded from New Zealand low at 1.6710 to 1.6751, price retreated to 1.6698 (Reuters) in European morning and then rebounded to 1.6751 after data showed that the strong upswing in the U.K. manufacturing sector continued in February and more-than-expected mortgage approvals in January. Later, broad-based rebound in greenback pushed price lower again n cable nose-dived to 1.6652 in late New York after penetrating 1.6698 level.
The Markit U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers' index for February came in at 56.9, up from a revised 56.6 in January. Market had expected the index to tick down to 56.5. A separate report showed that the number of mortgages approved in the U.K. rose to 76,947 in February, the highest level since November 2007, from 72,798 in January.
In other news, ECB's President Mario Draghi gave testimony before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Monday and said 'government bonds will be stressed according to stress parameters like all other assets in stress test; very important to reach swift conclusion on single resolution mechanism; financial linkages of Ukraine with euro zone are "rather small", economic impact likely to be limited; geopolitical dimensions of Ukraine could go beyond actual links of statistical numbers, must watch carefully; we have to find a way whereby the changes of our monetary policy will be passed to the real economy; start seeing some progress now in lending channels improving; funding for lending scheme is one of the instrument we could use; euro exchange is not our policy target, but it is important for price stability; premature to speculate about a debt relief for Greece, Greece should focus on programme implementation; looking at house price increases in some parts of euro zone with "great attention", too early to speak of bubble.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI and U.S. ISM New York.
AceTraderFx Mar 4: Daily Market Outlook on Cross – GBP/JPY
DAILY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 169.70
04 Mar 2014 06:07GMT
Although sterling intra-day rebound after Monday's
sell off to a 2-week low at 168.85, as long as 169.81
res holds, fall from 171.89 would head twd 168.55.
Raise short entry for 168.80 1st and only above 170.00
risks gain twd 170.30 (61.8% r from 171.89).
AceTraderFx Mar 4: Daily Technical Outlook on Major USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
04 Mar 2014 01:08GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8820
55 HR EMA
0.8829
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.8930 - Last Wed's high
0.8889 - Last Fri's high
0.8850 - Last Mon's low (now sup)
Support
0.8777 - Last Fri's fresh 2-year low
0.8742 - 100% proj. of 0.9038-0.8850 fm 0.8930
0.8674 - .618 ext. of 09156-0.8904 fm 0.9082
. USD/CHF - 0.8805... Dlr found support after a brief selloff fm 0.8809 to
0.8783 in Aust. on Mon on short-covering in eur/chf cross n price later edged
higher to 0.8812 in early Europe n continued to strengthen after release of
upbeat U.S. eco. data, posting session high at 0.8836 in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's rebound to 0.8836 suggests
1-2 days of choppy trading abv last Fri's fresh 2-year bottom at 0.8777 wud be
seen b4 MT downtrend fm 0.9972 (2012 top) resumes for a re-test of said sup. A
stronger recovery twd 0.8854, being the 'natural' 50% r of intermediate fall fm
0.8930-0.8777, cannot be ruled out, however, reckon chart res at 0.8889 (last
Fri's high) wud hold n downside bias remains for another fall later. Looking
ahead, a breach of 0.8777 wud confirm aforesaid decline to correct early LT
uptrend fm 2011 record low at 0.7072 has resumed n price shud en route to 0.86
36, being 50% projection of the intermediate fall fm 0.9839 (2013 peak) to
0.8800 measured fm 0.9156, later this month.
. In view of abv analysis, we're standing aside initially n wud sell on
recovery twd 0.8889 as only abv 0.8930 aborts bearishness, risks gain to 0.8989.
AceTraderFx Mar 5: Yen weakens broadly on Tuesday as Ukraine-Russia tensions ease
Market Review - 04/03/2014 21:17GMT
Yen weakens broadly on Tuesday as Ukraine-Russia tensions ease
The Japanese yen fell broadly against other major currencies on Tuesday on improved risk appetite after Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that the use of force in Ukraine would be a last resort and ordered troops engaged in military exercises close to Ukraine's borders to return to base, however, market sentiment remained fragile, with Russian forces still maintaining a military presence in Ukraine's Crimea region.
During the day, despite euro's initial fall below Monday's low at 1.3726 to 1.3718 in Asia on Tuesday, short-covering limited intra-day losses there and price later rebounded to 1.3774 in European morning on improved risk appetite. The single currency then climbed higher to 1.3782 in New York morning, helped by active cross-buying of euro versus yen and Swiss franc before retreating to 1.3726. Eur/jpy and eur/chf crosses rose from 139.28 to 140.53 and from 1.2126 to 1.2187 respectively.
U.S. dollar moved higher against the Japanese yen on Tuesday on active cross-selling in yen as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine eased. Price rose from Asian low at 101.20 to 101.95 in European morning and then further to 102.29 in late New York.
In other news, BOJ Kuroda said 'foreign investors haven't become downbeat on Japan cos; change in expectations helping to boost demand for funds; exit strategy from QE is extremely important; too early to discuss QE exit now; will act appropriately when exiting QE.'
Cable rose in tandem with euro on improved risk appetite and price rallied from Asian low at 1.6640 to 1.6717 in European morning and then retreated to 1.6670 after data showed that activity in the U.K. construction sector slowed in February. Later, cable climbed back to 1.6705 in New York morning and then chopped inside 1.6640-1.6717 for rest of the session.
Markit U.K. construction purchasing managers' index fell to 62.6 in February from a reading of 64.6 in January, the highest level since August 2007. Market had expected the index to fall to 63.2 last month. The report said heavy rain and flooding in parts of the country had contributed to softer construction output growth in February, especially in house building.
In commodity currency, the Australian dollar fluctuated wildly after the central bank held its cash rate at a record low 2.5% as expected and indicated a continued stable outlook and the need for a weaker currency to help re-balance the economy. Aussie fell from 0.8970 to 0.8909 in Asia and then climbed back to 0.8967 in European morning before trading sideways.
RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2.50% and said 'Prudent course is for stable rates; monetary policy appropriate to foster growth; inflation seen consistent with target band; signs of improvement in non-resources investment plans only tentative; labor demand remains weak; fall in A$ to date will help growth; wages growth down noticeably; A$ remains high by historical standards; unemployment to rise further before it peaks; monetary policy remains accommodating.'
In other news, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Tuesday that the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations are discussing whether to hold a meeting in the near future, a move that would pointedly exclude Russia.
Data to be release on Wednesday:
Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, UK BRC shop price index, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, GDP, U.S. ADP employment, ISM non-manufacturing and Canada BoC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Mar 5: Daily Technical Outlook on Major GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
05 Mar 2014 00:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.6675
55 HR EMA
1.6685
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6823 - Feb's 4-year high
1.6769 - Last Fri's high
1.6717 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6640 - Y'day's low
1.6617 - Last Thur's low
1.6583 - Feb 24 low
. GBP/USD - 1.6671... Although the British pound staged a brief but strg
rebound fm 1.6640 (Asia) to 1.6717 (Europe) as tension on Russia-Ukraine eased,
renewed selling interest pressued cable to 1.6651 in New York b4 stabilising.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's strg retreat fm last Fri's
top at 1.6769 to 1.6640 y'day suggests the rebound fm last Mon's 1.6583 low has
indeed made a top there n as long as 1.6769 holds, 'choppy' consolidation below
Feb's 4-year peak at 1.6823 wud continue with downside bias. The price action fm
there is possibly developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 1.6583; b-leg
: 1.6769 n c-leg decline is still unfolding n may bring weakness twds 1.6617 n
possibly twds 1.6600, however, anticipated low readings on hourly oscillators
shud limit downide to 1.6583. Only below 1.6583 wud risk stronger retracement of
the MT intermediate rise fm 1.6252 to 1.6538 (50% r).
. In view of abv consolidative view, we're trading cable on both sides of
the market today. On the upside, only abv 1.6769 res wud signal correction fm
1.6823 is over n MT rise fm 2013 2-year trough at 1.4814 (Jul) may resume n
extend gain to 1.6936 (61.8% proj. of 1.6252-1.6823 fm 1.6583) later.
AceTraderFx Mar 6: Japanese yen extends weakness on increasing risk appetite
Market Review - 05/03/2014 21:16GMT
Japanese yen extends weakness on increasing risk appetite
The Japanese yen weakened broadly the second day on Wednesday as concerns over tensions between Russian and Ukraine continued to abate. Investors shrugged off weaker than expected data on U.S. private sector jobs growth and turned their focus on Thursday's monetary policy decision from Bank of England and European Central Bank.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rebounded after finding support at 102.12 in Wednesday's Asian trading and price later rose above Tuesday's high of 102.29 in European morning. Usd/jpy pair later climbed higher to 102.55 in New York morning before easing. Eur/jpy, aud/jpy and gbp/jpy crosses rose from 140.20 to 140.78, from 91.35 to 92.08 and from 170.15 to 171.40 on Wednesday respectively.
Euro remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling at 1.3745 in Australian session and despite release of upbeat reports on euro zone private sector activity and retail sales, the single currency fell below Tuesday low at 1.3718 to 1.3707 in European morning as investors remained cautious ahead of the ECB's monthly policy meeting on Thursday amid concerns that the bank could tighten monetary policy to help shore up the fragile recovery in the region. Later, euro traded in a choppy fashion inside 1.3707-1.3749 in New York session, ended around 1.3732 near New York closing.
On the data front, the final euro zone composite PMI was revised up to a 32-month high of 53.3 from a preliminary estimate of 52.7. The euro area services PMI rose 52.6 in February, from a final reading of 51.6 in January and higher than the flash estimate of 51.7. Meanwhile, Germany's composite PMI climbed to a 33-month high but France's fell to a two-month low of 47.7. Italy's service PMI soared to an almost three year high last month at 52.9.
Cable traded sideways above Tuesday's low at 1.6652 in Asian on Wednesday before active cross-buying of sterling versus yen and euro pushed price higher in Europe. The pair rose to 1.3734 in New York morning and then further to 1.6742 before easing in New York afternoon.
Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rate unchanged at 1.00% on Wednesday, repeated that timing and direction of next rate move to depend on how new data influence balance of risks. BoC said in the statement that 'with inflation expected to be well below target for some time, downside risks to inflation "remain important" roughly follow path outlined in January MPR; recent inflation readings slightly higher than expected; still expects underlying 2014 Canada growth of around 2-1/2%, Q1 2014 likely to be softer; risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed; exports a little stronger than previously thought but continue to underperform, overall business investment has yet to pick up; recent data support bank's expectation of soft landing in housing market, stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households; fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada continue to strengthen gradually, as expected; global economy evolving as anticipated, growth seen strengthen in 2014/2015; tensions in Ukraine have added to geopolitical uncertainty.' However, BoC statement did not mention of C$; in Jan it said weaker C$ should help boost exports, confidence and investment.
In other news, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said "the economy continues to operate considerably short of these objectives of maximum employment and stable prices; the economy is stronger and the financial system is sounder; we have come a long way, but we have farther to go."
Data to be release of Thursday:
Australia trade balance, retail sales, Germany factory orders, UK BoE rate decision, ECB rate decision, Canada building permits, U.S. labor cost, productivity, initial jobless claims and factory orders.
AceTraderFx March 6: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1069.0
06 Mar 2014 01:13GMT
US Dollar's strong rebound from yesterday's low at 1067.6
suggests choppy trading above last Fri's 1063.5 low would
continue and gain to 1075.2 is seen before retreat.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated and only below
1067.6 aborts and risks weakness to 1065.0