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AceTraderFx Feb 17: Euro strengthens versus dollar on Friday after upbeat German &..
Market Review - 14/02/2014 18:35GMT
Euro strengthens versus dollar on Friday after upbeat German and French GDP
The single currency strengthened against the dollar and rose to a fresh 2-1/2 week at 1.3715 on Friday after release of upbeat German and French economic growth data, while recent disappointing U.S. economic reports still weighed on demand for the greenback.
Despite euro's sideways trading below Thursday's high of 1.3692 in Friday's Asian session, price rebounded from 1.3674 and then rose to 1.3713 after better-than-expected German and French GDP in Europe and then marginally higher to 1.3715. However, lack of follow through buying prompted profit-taking and the single currency later retreated to 1.3683 in thin New York morning.
Preliminary data showed that German GDP rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% expansion, and after a 0.3% rise in the 3 months to September. A separate report showed that French GDP expanded by 0.3% in the last quarter, compared to expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.1% contraction in the third quarter.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar rose briefly to 102.40 in Asia after the announcement on implementation of Japan's stimulus program, active cross-buying in yen knocked price down to 101.57 before recovering to 101.99 in European morning. Later, dollar chopped inside the range of 101.57-101.99 for rest of the day.
Japan's ministry of finance said that 70% of country's JPY 5 trillion stimulus will be implemented by the end of June and 90% by end of September.
Cable found support at 1.6644 ahead of European morning and continued its recent rally after the Bank of England revised up its U.K. economic growth forecast for 2014 to 3.4% from 2.8% on Wednesday. Price rallied above Thursday's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.6675 to 1.6718 in European midday and then further to 1.6731 before easing.
On the data front, U.S. official data showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in January, compared to expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.3% increase the previous month. Later, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 81.2 this month, higher than expectations for a fall to 80.6.
In other news, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent told the Committee for Economic Development of Australia in Sydney on Friday that the decline in the Australian dollar over the past year may lead to balanced growth. "The Bank has noted for some time that lower levels of the exchange rate, if sustained, will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy and bring about a quicker return to trend growth,” he said while adding that, “it will also add a little to inflation, for a time.”
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said 'the Bundesbank feels encouraged by the decision of Germany's top court to ask the European Court of Justice whether a key European Central Bank crisis-fighting programme is compatible with EU law.' Weidmann said 'Germany's Constitutional Court broadly shared the German central bank's concerns in its decision last week to refer the complaint against the ECB's bond-purchase programme to the European court.'
AceTraderFx Feb 17 : Daily Market outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1061.7
17 Feb 2014 05:32GMT
US Dollar's rebound after opening lower to 1058.5 suggests
consolidation is in store today b4 recent decrease line
from Feb's 1089.9 top resumes to 1056/57 later.
Sell on 'further' recovery and only above 1066.5 con
firms a temporary low is made, risks 1069/70.
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 16 Feb 2014 23:48GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
101.83
55 HR EMA
101.99
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
44
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
102.71 - Last week's high (Tue)
102.40 - Last Fri's high
101.99 - Last Fri's European high
Support
101.57 - Last Fri's low
101.40 - Feb 07 low
101.25 - Feb 06 low
. USD/JPY - 101.75... Although the greenback ratcheted higher fm Feb's 10-week low of 100.76 to 102.71 last Tue, sell off in the Nikkei due to renewed weakness in global stocks led to broad-based buying of the Japanese yen, dlr later fell to 101.57 in Asia on Fri b4 moving narrowly in NY session.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's aforesaid rise fm 100.76 signals
the recent erratic decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 has made a temporary low there n choppy sideways trading is in store with initial downside bias, however, as long as 100.76 low holds, prospect of another rise to 103.10 remains, being a 'natural' 50% r of above mentioned fall fm 105.45, however, only a daily close abv dynamic' 61.8% r at 103.66 wud turn outlook bullish for further subsequent headway twd next chart obj. at 104.92.
. Today, as price has remained under pressure after Fri's weakness to 101.
57, as long as 102.14 (50% r of 102.71-101.57) holds, downside bias remains for further decline to 101.39, being 100% measurement of 102.71-101.70 projected to 102.40. Therefore, selling dlr on intra-day recovery is cautiously favoured but profit shud be taken on decline as 101.25 wud hold. Abv 102.40 risks 102.71.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Euro climbs to 3-week high in subdued trade on Monday
Market Review - 17/02/2014 22:51GMT
Euro climbs to 3-week high in subdued trade on Monday
The single currency rose to a fresh 3-week high at 1.3724 against the dollar on Monday, as Friday's better-than-forecast data on euro zone fourth quarter growth continued to underpin demand for the common currency, however, price later eased to 1.3693 in quite North American session as some investors took profit due to U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar dropped initially below Friday's low at 101.57 to 101.39 at Tkyo open after official data showed that Japan's gross domestic product expanded 0.3% in the final three months of 2013 and grew 1.0% on a year-over-year basis, cross-selling of yen due to rebound in Nikkei index lifted price higher to 101.99 in European morning. Later, price moved in a narrow range of 101.83-101.99 for rest of the day.
Although cable continued its recent ascent in Asia on Monday and rallied to a fresh 4-year peak at 1.6823, lack of follow through buying and broad-based long liquidation of sterling pressured price lower to 1.6767 ahead of European open. Later, cable dropped further to 1.6720 and then 1.6694 in quite North American session.
On the data front, Rightmove said on Monday that the average selling price for houses in the U.K. was up 3.3% in February, from a 1.0% hike in January. On an annual basis, house prices spiked 6.9%, from an annual rate of 6.3% in January, the largest annual jump since February 2007.
In other news, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in London on Monday that 'ECB is not fulfilling its price stability goal; inflation forecast may show 2015 inflation may be below 2%; there might be good argument to wait and see on interest rates; ECB's OMT bond-buying programme "not that relevant" anymore because of improved European situation; negative deposit rate is one possible policy element but no decision made; sees improvements in real economy, need to discuss link to inflation rates.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA minutes, Japan machinery tool orders, Italy trade balance, EU current account, UK CPI, RPI, Germany ZEW current situation, ZEW survey expectations, U.S. empire manufacturing, net long-term TIC flows, total net TIC flow and NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3701
Update Time: 18 Feb 2014 00:54 GMT
The single currency's sideways trading after yesterday's resumption of rise from February's 2-month low at 1.3477 to 1.3724 suggests consolidation with upside bias would be seen and above aforesaid resistance would extend gain towards daily objective at 1.3740, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent strong rise above there and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only a daily close below support at 1.3657 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk retracement towards 1.3637.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 17 Feb 2014 23:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.3703
55 HR EMA
1.3692
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Sideways
Resistance
1.3775 - Jan 02 high
1.3740 - Jan 24 high
1.3724 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3657 - Hourly chart
1.3637 - Last Thur's Asian high
1.3599 - Hourly chart
. EUR/USD - 1.3704... Although the single currency rose marginally higher above last Fri's top at 1.3715 to a 3-week peak of 1.3724 in Asian morning on Mon, lack of follow-through buying prompted long liquidation in euro n price later ratcheted lower to 1.3694 in Europe, then 1.3693 in quiet N. American trading.
. Looking at the daily chart, euro's recent erratic rise from Jan's trough at
1.3477 to 1.3724 signals correction from Dec's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has formed a low there n as daily technical indicators are rising (macd has cut above the zero line), upside bias remains for gain to indicated obj. at 1.3735/40, being 61.8% are of 1.3894-1.3477 and daily res lvl respectively, a daily close above there would bode well for further headway to 1.3814 (80.9% r) where a break of this lvl would yield subsequent re-test of 1.3894. Only below 1.3563 (last week's low on Wed) would abort recent bullishness on the euro n may risk weakness twd 1.3477 in Mar.
. Today, expect intra-day sideways move to continue in Asia, as long as sup at 1.3657/62 holds, further gain twd 1.3740 is envisaged, however, as hourly oscillators' readings would display prominent bearish divergences on next rise, reckon 1.3775 would cap upside. Only below 1.3657 confirms temp. top made, 1.3600.
AceTraderFx Feb 19: Euro strengthens broadly & hits a fresh 1-1/2 month high....
Market Review - 18/02/2014 22:05GMT
Euro strengthens broadly and hits a fresh 1-1/2 month high against the dollar
The single currency rose broadly on Tuesday and rose to a fresh 1-1/2 month peak at 1.3770 against the dollar due to active cross-buying of euro, although a report showed that German economic sentiment deteriorated in January due to concerns that the economic recovery in the U.S. could lose momentum.
The ZEW Centre for Economic Research said that its index of German economic sentiment came in at 55.7 in February, down from 61.7 in January. Meanwhile, a separate report showed the current conditions index improved to 2-1/2 year highs of 50.0 this month from 41.2 in January.
During the day, despite euro's sideways trading below Monday's high of 1.3724 in Asia, renewed weakness in greenback lifted price to 1.3734 near European midday and the single currency later rallied to fresh 1-1/2 month peak at 1.3770 on active buying in euro crosses in New York morning before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar staged a brief drop from 102.17 to 101.77 in Asian morning on Tuesday, price swiftly rallied to 102.74 after the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold, but extended a bank lending scheme in an attempt to boost the effectiveness of its monetary stimulus program. Later, profit-taking pressured price to 102.31 in European morning and then 102.24 in New York session.
Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady by unanimous vote on Tuesday and stated 'board turns down by 8-1 vote a proposal by Kiuchi to make 2% inflation target a medium-term goal; economic assessment unchanged, economy continues to recover moderately; improvement in job market and incomes have continued; exports have generally been picking up; domestic and external demand is increasing moderately; can see front loading in demand ahead of sales tax hike; inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.' The central bank is however likely to scale up its low-interest loan program for commercial banks that are investing in growth-oriented sectors. It may also extend the deadline for applying for the loans by one or two years.
Cable traded in a choppy fashion on Tuesday, despite a briefly rise to 1.6741 ahead of European open, release of lower-than-expected U.K. consumer price index reinforced the view that the Bank of England is unlikely to raise interest rates any time soon and triggered broad-based selling in sterling. Price extended fall from Monday's 4-year peak at 1.6823 to 1.6655 in European morning but climbed back to 1.6708 and then 1.6728 in New York morning.
Data showed that consumer price inflation in the U.K. fell back below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since November 2009 in January. U.K. consumer prices fell 0.6% in January from a month earlier, while core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs rose 1.6% in January, slowing from 1.7% in December.
On the data front, U.S. Fed's Empire state index came in at 4.48, much lower than economists' forecast of 8.5.
In other news, RBA released its February minutes and said ' period of stability in interest rates likely most prudent course; RBA board saw further signs policy stimulus was having its intended effects; RBA board felt Q4 inflation figures likely contained “some noise”, as well as signal; inflation puzzle could also reflect lower A$, lag in impact from slower wages; lower A$, if sustained, would be expansionary for economy; leading indicators of employment had stabilized, but pointed to only moderate growth; board recognized that labour market conditions tended to lag economic growth; recent data more positive on consumption, home building, business conditions and exports; liaison suggested retail sales through Christmas were reasonably good; possible household consumption could outpace income thanks to house, equity prices; reasonable prospects that growth in major trading partners would pick up in 2014; board noted conditions in some emerging markets had become more unsettled.'
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia conference board leading index, Japan leading index, UK BoE minutes, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, U.S. housing starts, building permits and PPI.
AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Feb 2014 00:12GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8891
55 HR EMA
0.8907
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
29
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline
Resistance
0.9038 - last Wed's high
0.8989 - last Tue's high
0.8949 - last Thur's NY res
Support
0.8870 - Y'day's low
0.8860 - Dec 30 low
0.8800 - Dec 27 low
. USD/CHF - 0.8879... Despite dlr's recovery fm Monday's low at 0.8900 to
0.8929 in Asia on Tuesday, intra-day rally in euro together with selling in
eur/chf cross pressured price lower in Europe n dlr later fell to a fresh 6-week
trough at 0.8870 in NY morning b4 stabilizing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's fall below Mon's low at
0.8900 to 0.8870 suggests bias for dlr remains to the downside n decline fm
Jan's peak at 0.9156 shud pressure price further to 0.8860 n then 0.8832, being
Dec 30 low n Dec 17 low respectively, after consolidation. However, as hourly
oscillators wud display prominent bullish convergences on such move, sharp fall
below there is unlikely to be seen n reckon Dec's 2-year low at 0.8800 wud hold
on 1st testing n yield minor correction later this week. Looking ahead, a daily
close below 0.8800 wud confirm MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 has 'finally'
resumed n extend weakness twd 0.8700 in late Feb/early Mar.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery is still
favored today but one shud take profit on next decline. On the upside, only abv
0.8949 wud indicate a temporary low has been made n risk retracement to 0.8989.
AceTraderFx Feb 20: Euro eases from a fresh 6-week peak against the dollar on Wed
Market Review - 19/02/2014 21:43GMT
Euro eases from a fresh 6-week peak against the dollar on Wednesday
Although the single currency rose marginally above Tuesday's high at 1.3770 to 1.3773 shortly after Asian opening on Wednesday, cross-related selling of euro especially versus Japanese yen pressured price lower to 1.3739 in New York morning before rebounding. Later, euro fell briefly to 1.3725 after the release of FOMC minutes that suggested policymakers would keep up the pace of a withdrawal of monetary stimulus.
Dollar retreated versus yen after meeting renewed selling interest at 102.42 in Australia and the pair continued to edge lower in early European trading on active cross-buying of yen due to falling Nikkei futures. Price dropped further to 101.84 in New York morning and then rebound to 102.47 after the release of FOMC minutes.
Bank of Japan released its monthly economic report, which stated 'prices are rising moderately, first such description since Oct 2008; overall economic view unchanged, economy recovering moderately; rises view on exports; raises view on employment situation.'
Despite cable's brief rise to 1.6734 in European morning, the pair retreated sharply to 1.6662 after data showed that the U.K. unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher in the three months to December. Cable eventually fell to 1.6637 ahead of New York open but short-covering emerged and lifted price back to 1.6725 in late New York.
The Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday that the rate of unemployment in the U.K. ticked up to 7.2% in the three months to December from 7.1% in the previous three months. A separate report showed the claimant count fell by a seasonally adjusted 27,600 last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 20,000 people. December's figure was revised to a drop of 27,700 people from a previously reported decline of 24,000.
Bank of England released its February's meeting minutes and stated 'Carney did not ask MPC vote on new forward guidance policy on Feb 6; MPC judged there was scope to absorb spare capacity before raising rates, rates rises would be gradual; note FX strategists attribute recent sterling appreciation to stronger U.K. demand outlook; past month's news strengthens sense of momentum in U.K. economy, see 0.9% Q1 growth, similar in Q2; upside news about euro zone periphery must be balanced against heightened risks from emerging economies; CPI to be lower than expected due to sterling appreciation, low global inflation pressures, fading one-off effects; strong short-term bounce in productivity unlikely, but normalizing banking sector may help; MCP voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 bln pounds; MPC voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%.'
On the data front, U.S. showed that the number of building permits issued last month declined by 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted 937K units from December's total of 991K, while housing starts plunged by 16% in January to hit a seasonally adjusted 880K units from December's total of 1.048 million.
FOMC minutes stated 'several Federal Reserve policymakers wanted to drive home the idea that their asset-purchase program would be trimmed in predictable, $10-billion steps unless the economy's performance surprises them.' Beyond the expected cut to bond buying, the Fed at the meeting made no changes to its other main policy plank: its pledge to keep interest rates low for some time to come.
Data to be release on Thursday:
New Zealand PPI, consumer confidence, Japan trade balance, imports, exports, China manufacturing PMI, Germany PPI, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, France CPI, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK CBI trends, U.S. CPI, jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed survey and leading index.
AcetraderFx Feb 20: Daily Market Outlook on Minor - AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8950
20 Feb 2014 01:54GMT
Despite yesterday's rebound from 0.8989 to 0.9044, sub
sequent retreat on Dollar's strength suggests downside
bias would be seen n below 0.8989 would yield stronger
retrace. of rise from Jan's 3-1/2 year trough at 0.86
60 twds 0.8966, then 0.8945/50.
Trade from short side with stop now as indicated,
above would signal pullback from Tuesday's 0.9081 top is over