Experimental system development

[Beno]

[Linuxser]

[Beno]

The formula that I posted could well be wrong. is there any excel wiz kids out there that could post a formula to help Please.

basicly what are the chances the X tp will be hit and what are the chances that X SL will be hit.

Open High Low High Diff Low Diff

2.7733 2.8132 2.7678 0.0399 0.0055 Long

2.7938 2.8111 2.7785 0.0173 0.0153 Long

2.8218 2.8545 2.7609 0.0327 0.0609 Short

2.8064 2.8378 2.7677 0.0314 0.0387 Short

2.8047 2.8249 2.7608 0.0202 0.0439 Short

2.7749 2.7854 2.7043 0.0105 0.0706 Short

2.7534 2.7557 2.7443 0.0023 0.0091 Short

2.7438 2.7706 2.7146 0.0268 0.0292 Short

2.7222 2.7581 2.7115 0.0359 0.0107 Long

2.7147 2.7362 2.6878 0.0215 0.0269 Short

2.7165 2.7362 2.6826 0.0197 0.0339 Short

2.7238 2.7578 2.7134 0.0340 0.0104 Long

2.7443 2.7711 2.7007 0.0268 0.0436 Short

2.7597 2.7678 2.6707 0.0081 0.0890 Short

2.6921 2.6991 2.6073 0.0070 0.0848 Short

2.6196 2.6311 2.5194 0.0115 0.1002 Short

2.5711 2.6177 2.5571 0.0466 0.0140 Long

Cheers

Beno

[bobfourie]

Beno:

Look at the historical data.

You look at each bar and calculate the how many points are from the Open to the High (Long) and the Open to the Low(Short).

From that I look for the highest probable Take Profit (TP) and the highest probable Stop Loss (SL) for both the potential Long and Short positions

The starting point for the TP and SL calculations is 50 points so the idea is to run a program to find the probability of the price reaching both the TP and SL if the probability is very high I am looking for the system to add a point to the starting point. Then continue to add a point until the probability reaches a predefined point e.g. 0.75

basicly what are the chances the X tp will be hit and what are the chances that X SL will be hit.

Hi Beno,

sorry have been gone so long, will somewhere in Jan get back to that last project of ours. I've put in an example of the binomial function in the xls sheet, excel has that function build in. Also added an win/loss column to show if the last trade was successful or not.

I'm still not sure how you want to calc the probability(p) and get the # of successful trades(k) since you will have to calc p by p = k/n (the mean).I don't know of another way to do this.

You could work with different periods, to calc p use long periods and k shorter periods. I have included that example in the sheet as well. Played with the Bin function to calc the amount of pips that must used with the next trade, a different kind of mm.

Or I'm I missing something here about how you want to calc p?