Probability indicator

New comment
 

Hi, I would like to ask you, if exist an indicator that have as input the number of pips that you want gain, and as output the percentage of success about target. I don't know which indicators could be used for this purpose.

I'd like that this indicator worked on 5min time frame.

If it don't exist, is it possible to create it?

Thanks

Bolla

 

change the spread according and then input your pips loss and tp

Files:
probability.zip  10 kb
 
trevman:
change the spread according and then input your pips loss and tp

Thanks but I mean probability real time during trading with an indicator write in mql language.

Bolla

 

take that spreadsheet to be completely mathematically accurate (as far as i know it is). now assume the market is completely mathematically random (so no previous event effects the current probability). this would mean that the spreadsheet shows the true outcome probability.

until you know the market depth you can not gauge accurately any probability, by market depth i mean - a stock is at 1p the chance of it going bust is quite likely as its closer to the low of the market than the high (which we don't know) but in forex we don't know how far a currency will go down. so to say that it has fallen 5000pips does not mean is has anymore chance of coming back up than it has of continuing to fall.

however, the market DOES remember and trend and have a bias. so by just placing a MA and trading in the same direction as it, increases the odds of you winning. you have to bear in mind that the market will out run and then return back to the MA, at which point the bias is against you.

looking for an indicator that shows probability you will do just as well to look at any oscillator. the RSI will show the probability of a trade going up or down depending on whether is it over bough or sold, in a flat market as there is no bias - BUT look what happens in a trend, it goes overbought and STAYS overbought. so it keeps telling you to sell even though there is an upwards bias. you can not apply probability to the market itself, but merely the trade.

hope this helps and you can understand.

 

This site may be the same as the excel file: Risk Probability Calculator

It seems to me that having an indicator that gives the risk/probability of the trade along with other indicators, MA, RSI, etc... could be of great use. One could use the standard indicators to get the trade signal and then use the calculator determine if there is a high probability that the trade will make the minimum expected pips.

Seems like this would be a great tool to have...

 
jerzhere:
This site may be the same as the excel file: Risk Probability Calculator

It seems to me that having an indicator that gives the risk/probability of the trade along with other indicators, MA, RSI, etc... could be of great use. One could use the standard indicators to get the trade signal and then use the calculator determine if there is a high probability that the trade will make the minimum expected pips.

Seems like this would be a great tool to have...

yes. I hope same programmer could make it for us.

Bolla

 

could you explain to me how you can calculate the probability?

 

i made the spreadsheet.... and that calculator is just a fib retracement calc

 

This is the code in used on this site: Risk Probability Calculator

I have not looked at the spread sheet posted in this tread yet to see how it is doing it.

removed the javascript code from the above url... tis just wasting space

 

Probability?

It is a good idea.

 
12
New comment
Reason: