Probability. - page 3
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Are you going to open a bookmaker's office with bets on currency appreciation?
You think the price will go up? Bet on it with odds of 2.1.
You think the price will go down? Bet on it at odds of 1.5.
That only happens in sports. Because there are strong teams and weak teams. And the odds are always higher on weak teams.
In forex there are no strong and weak currencies. In forex, central banks keep their countries' currencies stable.
Well there are weak countries currencies... but it's all equalised by the swap...
forex always pays out at a rate of 2. minus the spread.
if you think there is a 60% chance of the price going up and a 40% chance of it going down, you simply bet that the price will go up and 60% of the time you get a payout with odds of 2.
Although I've seen on binary options the odds are 60% that the price will go up, the odds are 70% if the price goes down.
and every minute the coefficient changes.
they calculate it somehow)))
i think they come from bookmakers. they work in the usual way. they know the odds for one event and the odds for the other.
they still pay out profit at odds that are not 100%. that's why they are still in profit.
i've come up with a ts on working with binary options odds. where they put the highest odds, you open in that direction.
i don't think they know how to make correct predictions.)
I have no desire to open the beeches.
And the principle of analysing them is fine by me.
Perhaps someone will share some interesting information on this topic.
Not really. At the moment it is 60 and in 20 minutes it will be 30.
It is important to determine the probability within a certain range over time. That's the focus of my interest right now.
it depends on your trading system. what principle you use to open trades.
if you open a trade with a system that has 60% profitable trades - then the probability that the trade will work will be 60%.
if you open a trade with a system that has 65 profitable trades, there's a 65% chance the trade will close.
If we look at the history, we see that the chart has gone up in the last 100 pips.
what is the probability that it went up the last 100 pips? 100% because it's an event that's already happened.
And how do you know in advance what the probability is that it will go up? It depends on your trading system.
But if you think about it, every trade must be analysed separately, and this means new conditions and a different forecast.
How do you check this? You can only check it on history.
You need to enter into the Expert Advisor when there were moments with the same conditions and test it on the history - see how many trades were profitable.
You can verify the results only by using the history.
It depends on your trading system. what principle you use to open trades.
if you open a trade with a system that has 60% of profitable trades - then there's a 60% chance that the trade will work.
if you open a trade with a system that has 65 profitable trades, there's a 65% chance the trade will close.
If we look at the history, we see that the chart has gone up in the last 100 pips.
what is the probability that it went up the last 100 pips? 100% because it's an event that's already happened.
And how do you know in advance what the probability is that it will go up? It depends on your trading system.
It is a complete misconception that if"which has 60% profitable trades - then there is a 60% chance that the trade will work out. "
The system can work. No argument there. But private trades from it can't be 100% in prediction and outlook.
And the principle of their analysis is fine by me.
their principle of analysis?)
You don't know how they analyse.
According to their analysis, the pair should go up - on an upward move, they put the standard coefficient of their firm, and on a downward move, a few percent lower coefficients.
Different coefficients - to entertain the crowd.
They don't care if their predictions are correct or not. They've got odds of 60-65%, not 100%.
it doesn't matter if their prediction is based on technical analysis or fundamental analysis.
The problem is that they don't do technical analysis, they don't do fundamental.
It is a complete misconception that if"which has 60% profitable trades - then there is a 60% chance that the trade will work out. "
The system can work. No argument there. But private trades from it can't be 100% in prediction and perspective.
It's "statistically".
if we accept the theory that the system will continue to behave as it did before.
There is a 50/50 chance of it going up or down.
If you know that there is more than a 50% chance that the price will go either way, then you will be winning.
That's complete nonsense. The probability of winning in poker is 1/9-1/6 - that's only 15% or less. Nevertheless good players are in profit, although their winnings are within the specified probability range. I am a good poker player myself and my winnings don't exceed 20% of games played (I can show you statistics from my web-site); nevertheless my profit is rather good.
By the way, poker technology is very well applied to the market.
How do you check this? You can only check it on history.
You input into the Expert Advisor the moments with the same conditions and test them on the history - see how many trades have been profitable.
You can check this only through history.
I wondered...
Logically correct.
But in reality, new conditions are being created in the world and consequently in the market, which will create a new version that does not correspond to the historical image.
How should we proceed in such a case?
My view. Analyse only the current moment.
Total nonsense. The probability of winning in poker is 1/9-1/6. Nevertheless, good players are in profit, although their winnings fall within the specified probability range. I am a good poker player myself, and my winnings do not exceed 25% of games played, but the profit is very good nevertheless.
By the way, poker technologies are very well applied to the market.
It's only 10%)))))))))))
It was playing poker that made me think about the probability of events on the financial markets.
It's hard for anyone who hasn't played poker to understand).
it's "statistical".
if we accept the theory that the system will continue to behave the way it did before.
Theory in theory, but every day we hear complaints that the TS has stopped working after n-times. This is normal for my vision of such a problem.