I ad here the report of a very simple RSI based EA.
Put the ea at SL500 TP50 TS15 (I did not optimesed TP and TS they are what I tought logic, I did 4 runs with different SL)
What strikes me is that it makes in a 2.5 year period 408 winning trades and only 20 losers. But as you can see even a system with 95% winners can still make (almost) no profit, because the stop is to far away.
My 100 million dollar question is: Is there any afordable way to hedge against these 8 negative trades/year ?
Its random, and over optimized. I guess the only way to make sure your profit is to enter buy/sell at the same time. 1 with reduce stop loss, 1 with increased TP. You'll get 49% winning trades at the end, but you'll win some small money and a spikey equity curve.
You want optimised ?
No David, it was not optimised like I said. But I runned a few tests with different SL. But if you want optimisation ... Putting my super quad core Intel on it I could in 15 minutes nearly triple the profit over the same period. Set file attached
This is not the purpose of posting this here. What I want to say is in other words: Lets asume you trade manualy and you win nearly always. 8 losers in a year, thats not a lot. And in my manual trading I am always in this dilema. Or I turn very fast and I am ofcourse always out to soon. Or I sweat it out a bit longer and (this means, I put my stop a bit farther) and than i start to win more often. But it makes also the losers bigger.
We traders we are on the losing side of the table and the house is matematicaly the winner. But could we not hedge the few losers we produce ?
Ok mate. 1st thing 1st. I'm not giving critics. But thanks for the clarification about over optimized issue. I have some EA that did exactly the same way your equity chart shows. May be a dynamic stop loss is needed? Parabolic SAR? ATR? I dont know, but I used ATR6 for my H4 MA cross system works pretty well. Hope this help.
Not really. A dynamic stoploss ... mm interesting! One with a binocular, to see a bit up front? Yes that should be nice. Pleace attach it here and make us all happy!
Pipperoni, no pun intended, but your ea is flawed from the start. Take any macd settings, set tp 10, set sl 1000 and you will have 99% (at least) win ratio on any pair. But first loss will be your last one.
How to improve? Try to make tp:sl at least 1:2 or 1:3 for a start, but then you will probably see win rate of about 40 - 50%, which will not give you any profit. Then you will start adding all kinds of different filters, and (if you will have patience and determination to go that far) you will end up with ea, that is 100% profitable, but trades only 3 - 5 times a year, which is an obvious sign of overoptimization.
If your ea's only edge is sl = 10 x tp, then, no matter what kind of magic rsi settings nor timeframe you are using, it is not worth effort and time. Sad but true.
What ? MRV, only 99% booooo loser ! LOL! Kurka Fund made a scalper with 100% winning trades and with REAL MONEY !!! see link at undersite of page
Who does better ?
I want 110% winning trades! Come on boys show me !
PM me your email address.
No thank you. Been stolen code too many times. I'm not sayin the code cant be break. But at least I wont make it as simple as "Get the code, modify the name and resell it!".
p/s: Below shows the backtest after modification with dynamic stop loss and multi RSI as signal indicator.
Ticks modelled 6986355
Modelling quality 90.00%
Initial deposit 1000.00
Total net profit 1275.48
Gross profit 7751.37
Gross loss -6475.90
Profit factor 1.20
Expected payoff 0.71
Absolute drawdown 137.44
Maximal drawdown 433.69 (16.25%)
Relative drawdown 16.25% (433.69)
Total trades 1804
Short positions (won %) 837 (87.81%)
Long positions (won %) 967 (88.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 1586 (87.92%)
Loss trades (% of total) 218 (12.08%)
profit trade 12.00
loss trade -62.40
profit trade 4.89
loss trade -29.71
consecutive wins (profit in money) 48 (285.32)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-86.70)
consecutive profit (count of wins) 285.32 (48)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -114.08 (3)
consecutive wins 9
consecutive losses 1
Wow David, you proved your point!
Still 87.92% profitable trades, but you cut these big losers considerably. Impressive! Thanks. You hear from me.
Please check your email. If you feel comfortable, you can post the EX4 so people can test it out too. Cheers
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