My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 40
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of September 29, 2014
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support near the 108 level to turn things back around and form a hammer at the top of a very strong move. Because of this, it appears that the market is ready to continue going higher, but we do recognize of the 110 level just above is going to be resistive. Because of this, we are bit hesitant to start buying but recognize that a daily close above the 110 level is probably enough of a reason to start buying this market yet again, as it most certainly cannot be sold at this point in time.
Truth be told, the 105 region with much more resistant than the 110 region is on the longer-term charts, so it would not surprise us at all if we continue going higher. We won’t lie though, we would prefer to see a pullback in order to collect more buyers going forward as a US dollar should continue to gain against the Japanese yen overall. After all, the two central banks are completely diametrically opposed when it comes to monetary policy, and as a result this should be a “one-way bet” given enough time.
The market has a massive floor and it down at the 105 level even if we do pullback, and all that would do is have us buying aggressively at that point in time on supportive candles. We see no reason to think that this market is going to break down now, and even if we get something like a shooting star at the 110 level, we are not interested in selling, we just look at it as a sign that the market was ready to take a little bit of a break. Because of that, we are simply not interested in selling whatsoever, as the markets have no sign of pulling back for any real length of time. Ultimately, we think that this market will continue to go higher over the next several years, and that the long-term trend has started.
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EUR/GBP forecast for the week of September 29, 2014
The EUR/GBP pair fell during the course of the week, but not before testing the 0.7875 level first. After that, we fell and broke to a fresh, new low but the range was in exactly impressive. If we can break the bottom of the range for the week though, we feel that this market will then head down to the 0.75 handle given enough time. On the other hand, as far as buying is concerned we need to get above the 0.80 level on a daily close at the very least in order to do so.
Japanese yen gains ahead of busy data day in Asia
The Japanese yen gained and the Australian dollar held steady ahead of busy data sets in Asia on Tuesday.
USD/JPY traded at 109.43, down 0.05%, while AUD/USD 0.8721, up 0.01%.
In New Zealand, ANZ's September business confidence and activity outlook is due at 1300 (0000 GMT). The last survey showed a big fall in confidence, down 16 points
and a total fall of 46 points since the peak in February.
In Japan are August unemployment rate, household spending and job offers to seekers ratio all due at 0830 Tokyo time (2330 GMT).
The forecast for the unemployment rate is 3.8%, unchanged from July, while that for household spending is down 3.8% on year in real terms, a fifth consecutive year-on-year drop.
Later, at 0850 (2350 GMT), there's August preliminary industrial output and retail sales data. The forecast for industrial output is a fall of 0.2% on month, while for retail sales, it is a gain of 0.5% on year, a second straight year-on-year rise.
Then at 1030 (0130 GMT), August preliminary average cash earnings are then due followed by August housing starts at 1400 (0500 GMT), seen down 14.2%
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases private sector credit numbers at 1130 Sydney time (0130 GMT) with a forecast for a gain of 0.4% month-on-month.
In China, HSBC/Markit is due to release the final reading of their September PMI at 0945 local (0145 GMT). The flash reading, released last week, showed a surprise uptick to 50.5 from August's final 50.2, helping lift sentiment in a market which had been braced for a sub-50 reading.
Markets in Chins will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for the week-long National Day holidays.
Overnight, the dollar traded mixed against most major currencies as investors digested a mixed bag of U.S. data.
The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that its pending home sales index fell 1.0% to 104.7 in August from 105.8 in July. Economists had expected the index to tick down 0.1% last month.
Separately, the Commerce Department said that U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for an increase of 0.4%, after a 0.1% dip in July.
The report also showed that personal income, reflecting income from wages, investment, and government aid, rose 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July, broadly in line with forecasts.
On Friday, the dollar advanced after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with the consensus forecast.
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USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 6 - 10
The dollar moved higher against the yen on Friday, re-approaching six year peaks after data showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month, indicating the economic recovery is on track.
USD/JPY was up 1.22% to 109.77 in late trade, not far from Wednesday’s six year highs of 110.07.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 1.23% to 86.79 in late trade, a high last seen in June 2010, capping its twelfth consecutive weekly gain. The twelve-week rally is the longest since the index was created in 1971.
The U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department reported, well ahead of forecasts for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008.
The upbeat jobs report was tempered by slow growth in wages. Average hourly earnings rose by 2.0% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.
The robust employment data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner. The central bank is on track to end its asset purchase program later this month.
In contrast, the Bank of Japan looks likely to stick to a loose monetary policy stance amid concerns over the outlook for inflation and growth.
The yen had pushed higher against the dollar earlier in the week as concerns over unrest in Hong Kong sent stocks lower, boosting safe haven demand for the Japanese currency.
Disappointing U.S. data on manufacturing activity and consumer confidence had also dented optimism over the outlook for the recovery, sending the dollar lower.
Elsewhere, the euro was little changed against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY at 137.38, holding above Thursday’s almost one month lows of 136.85.
The European Central Bank refrained from implementing additional stimulus measures at its meeting on Thursday, despite euro area inflation slowing to a five year low last month, indicating that it will wait to see the effects of recent stimulus measures on the region’s economy.
Data on Friday showed that the bloc’s service sector slowed more sharply than initially estimated in September, fuelling fears that the economy is losing momentum.
In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy. Meanwhile, the BoJ is to conclude its two day policy meeting on Tuesday.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.
USD/JPY forecast for the week of October 13, 2014
The USD/JPY pair broke down pretty significantly during the course of the week, making the previous hammer a so-called “hanging man.” This of course is a very bearish sign, but at the end of the day we do not look at this is a selling opportunity. Quite the opposite to be honest, as we see the 105 level as the “floor” in this market. We are looking for some type of support, and the fact that we have not pullback after the recent break out above the aforementioned 105 level suggests that we need this pullback in order to pick up enough momentum to go long and start heading above the 110 level again.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of October 20, 2014
The USD/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the previous week, but found the 105 level to be supportive enough to turn the market back around and form a massive hammer. This hammer of course as you can see is a very positive turn of events, as the 105 level was in fact a significant point of breakout. The 105 level previously was very resistive, and the fact that we have now come back to test that area and form a hammer tells us that the market is going to go higher given enough time. This is will we believe anyway, and it appears now that we will test the 110 level given enough time as well.
On a break of the top of that hammer, we would be a buyer, just as we would buy pullbacks and show signs of support on shorter-term charts as well. Quite frankly, the reaction that we’ve seen at the 105 level tells us that the market should continue to go and find buyers in that general area as it is obviously an area of great interest by the bullish traders out there.
Once we do get above the 110 level, the market should then head to the 115 level given enough time, but we believe that the market will continue to offer buying opportunities as we pullback, and we will essentially “buy on the dips” all the way through the rest of the year, quite frankly farther than that we believe. In fact, we believe that this is the beginning of a multi-year uptrend that should continue to offer plenty of profitable opportunities as we had seen for several years before the financial meltdown.
The candle shaped is just about perfect, so we really do like the idea of buying at this point. We believe that one 10 will of course offer resistance again, but ultimately this pair will break out to the upside and should continue to go much higher. We find it very difficult to imagine breaking down below the 105 level, and we believe that there are plenty buyers below that area to keep that from being realized.
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USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 20 - 24
The dollar moved higher against the yen on Friday, as upbeat data on U.S. consumer sentiment boosted the outlook for an early rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
USD/JPY was up 0.53% to 106.88 late Friday, from 106.32 on Thursday.
The pair is likely to find support at 106.12, Friday’s low and resistance at 107.65.
The dollar strengthened broadly after a report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 86.4 in October, the most since July 2007.
Another report showed that U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in September, bolstering the outlook for the sector.
The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in the second half of 2015.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.33% to 85.31, but still ended the week lower, its second consecutive weekly decline.
The dollar fell against the other major currencies on Wednesday, touching a one month low against the yen amid a selloff sparked by fears that slower global growth would act as a drag on the U.S. economy.
Germany’s government cut its forecast for economic growth for this year and next on Tuesday, after recent data pointed to weakness in exports and industrial output.
The euro area’s largest economy now expects growth of 1.2% this year down from 1.8% previously and growth of 1.3% in 2015, down from 2%.
The euro edged higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY easing up 0.15% to 136.38 in late trade, off Thursday’s 11-month lows of 134.12.
On Thursday, European Central Bank official Ewald Nowotny said the bank still has leeway for more action to address slowing inflation in the euro area and added that quantitative easing would start as soon as December.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of October 27, 2014
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer yet again. This is the second hammer in a row, and as a result it appears of the market will then head to the 110 level. With that, the 110 level will be tested and eventually broken above as we had to the 115 level. The 105 level below should be a bit of a “floor”, as the market should not go below there. If it did, things would change drastically, but at this point in time that looks very unlikely.
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USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 27 - 31
The dollar ended slightly lower against the traditional safe haven yen on Friday as concerns over a confirmed Ebola diagnosis in New York City spurred increased demand for the Japanese currency.
USD/JPY was down 0.12% to 108.14 late Friday, after falling as low as 107.77 earlier in the session.
The dollar slid against the yen after a doctor in New York tested positive for the Ebola virus after returning from Guinea. The news fuelled concerns that a widespread outbreak of the virus could derail global economic growth.
The dollar later pulled away from session lows after data showed that U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% from a month earlier to hit a six year high of 467,000 in September.
The pair still ended the week with gains as the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and Japan’s central bank continued to underpin dollar demand.
The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.
Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.
The Bank of Japan looks likely to stick to a looser monetary policy stance amid signs that the economic recovery in the world’s third-largest economy is faltering.
Japan’s government downgraded its assessment of the economic outlook for the second consecutive month last week, and a report earlier in the month showed that sentiment in the services sector deteriorated in the third quarter after a sales tax hike in April hit consumption.
Elsewhere, the euro was almost unchanged against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY trading at 137.01.
The single currency found support after the forward looking Gfk index of German consumer climate ticked up to 8.5 for November from a revised 8.4 in October.
The index had fallen sharply in the preceding two months as concerns over geopolitical risks and the ensuing economic slowdown weighed.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of November 3, 2014
The USD/JPY pair absolutely shot out of the consolidation area like it was being launched out of a cannon on Friday. That being the case, the market has finally shown that it’s ready to go much higher, and now that we have closed above the 110 level, we feel that this market is ready to continue to go much higher, probably heading to the 115 level. That being the case, every time we pullback we feel that the USD/JPY pair will offer value and will continue to be bought.
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