Week 3 - 8H Time Frame: new Bearish Trend starting?
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newdigital, 2014.01.11 14:01
Analysis for GBPUSD for the next coming week (adapted from this article).
Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bearish
newdigital, 2014.01.13 07:40
GBPAUD is on the verge of deeper correction (based on fxstreet.com article)
started the trading week on a softer note and moved below the
resistance area of 1.8300 right from the start, as the bears are eager
to show who is running the show here.
Watch out for Head-and-ShouldersFrom the
technical point of view the GBP/AUD is on the verge of deeper correction
as the cross has formed the head and shoulder pattern on the daily
charts. The break below 1.8256 is needed to confirm the model
completion. GBP/AUD has come vary close to this level today morning as
the current intraday low is 1.8261. The upside dynamics is likely to be
contained below 1.8300. Australian home loans and investment lending
data came out slightly better than expected, though it is hardly the
factor behind the move. It is all about post-Non Farm Payrolls reaction
and stops, triggered below 1.8300. No fundamental data of interest is
published today so keep an eye on the above mentioned technical levels
level, if the crosse breaks the resistance level at 1.8300, we may spend
still more time in the range. What are today’s key GBP/AUD levels?Today's
central pivot point can be found at 1.8395, with support below at
1.8229, 1.8135 and 1.7969, with resistance above at 1.8489, 1.8655, and
1.8749. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 1.8446
and the daily 20EMA at 1.8346. Hourly RSI is neutral at 27.06.
newdigital, 2014.01.14 08:29
After NFPs, Focus Turns to Potential Tops for GBPAUD (adapted from this article)
In light of last week’s data and the softening yield environment, the British Pound enters the coming period with a more uncertain future. Central to Sterling weakness has been budding expectations for a dovish shifting in the Bank of England’s forward guidance policy - the Unemployment Rate threshold would be lowered to 6.5% from 7.0%.
Ironically, this is a result of recent economic momentum, as it looks like the UK Unemployment Rate will hit 7.0% sometime in early-2014.
The BoE is worried that higher rates resulting from a stronger economy
will be self-defeating; right or wrong, it is attempting to front-run an
accelerated tightening cycle.
Accordingly, because the BoE needs a soft price
environment in order to justify a dovish shift in policy – the desire to
keep rates low so as to not choke off growth - we are watching this
Tuesday’s December UK Consumer Price Index release with great
Confirmation that inflation remains pinned below the BoE’s +2.5% (y/y) forward guidance circuit may bethe signal for a dovish shift at the February meeting – and that may be setting up the GBPAUD and GBPJPY for technical corrections in the coming days.