EURUSD Technical Analysis 05.01 - 12.01: Bearish Reversal? - page 2
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Press review
newdigital, 2014.01.10 06:44
2014-01-10 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China Export Growth Misses Forecast, Trade Surplus Falls
China's exports growth eased more than expected in December, while imports beat expectations signaling robust domestic demand, the latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs showed Friday.
As a result, the trade surplus missed forecast sharply at the end of the year.
Exports grew 4.3 percent year-on-year in December, slower than a 5 percent expansion forecast by economists. The pace of growth decelerated sharply from November's 12.7 percent increase.
Meanwhile, import growth accelerated unexpectedly last month, taking the annual growth rate to 8.3 percent. This followed a 5.3 percent gain in November and exceeded forecasts for a 5 percent rise.
The trade balance showed a surplus of $25.6 billion, down from $33.8 billion in November and $32.15 billion surplus forecast.
In the whole year of 2013, exports recorded a gain of 7.9 percent compared with 2012. Imports rose 7.3 percent. The trade surplus for the year amounted to $259.75 billion.
The country's exports and imports value totaled $4.16 trillion last year, recording an increase of 7.6 percent from the previous year. Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng said that this was the first time the total value exceeded the $4 trillion-mark.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.01.10
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EURUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by CNY - Trade Balance news event
Breakout is going on for EURUSD H4 timeframe (good for buy trades) - look at the image :
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EURUSD, H4, 2014.01.10
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breakout
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newdigital, 2014.01.10 10:24
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 197K in December and a better-than-expected print may heighten the bullish outlook for the dollar as it raises the Fed’s scope to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A pickup in job growth may spur a further shift in the policy outlook as the Fed starts to wind down its asset-purchase program, and the central bank may take a more aggressive approach in moving away from its easing cycle as the economic recovery gathers pace.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Rises 197K+; Unemployment Holds or Falls from 7.0%
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Falls Short of Market ForecastMetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.01.10
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
temp_file_screenshot_21070.png
more - nfp is going on :
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.01.10
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
temp_file_screenshot_36775.png
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newdigital, 2014.01.10 20:37
EUR/USD halts decline ahead of important Gann level (based on dailyfx article)
CADJPY? I do not have this pair in MT5 now sorry so ...
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But if we understand NFP as the following :
actual > forecast = good for currency (and it is USD NFP so means - "good for USD").
==========================
We have forecast as 196K and actual data is 74K (and 74K is less than forecast - bad for USD). "Bad for USD" is the following:
and so on
Thus, in case of CADJPY: we had immediate downtrend for USDCAD and immediate downtrend for USDJPY ... and about CADJPY - it is related to the movement of each currency ... may be - no influence during this nfp for this pair.
This is USDCAD :
This is USDJPY :
I was talking about immediate influence (M5 candle - just one this candle only). But if we look at H1 or H4 candles so we understand that influence of nfp for the price movement is much more effected than any other news event (because we will see the result/effect of nfp on Monday too).
CADJPY had immediate influence. So if the USDCAD downtrends, which means the CAD gets stronger, and the JPY gets stronger then the USD, but why the CAD gets weaker relative to the JPY? Thank you.