Big problem I can't solve
quincarroll:
My questions...
1. Is back testing something I can actually use as an indication of the possible profits/losses in real trading?
2. Is it really possible to make the profits I am seeing in the 2003-2005 back testing?
Yes, if you can go back in time to 2003 and get the same data from a Broker offering the same spread you are using and you curve fit your parameters in the same way . . . and assuming your Strategy won't be upset between the difference in real ticks vs synthetic ticks.
quincarroll:
This information is very useful for you . . . you should concentrate on understanding why you have such a difference in results . . .
Because I know that the forex market can change a lot over the months and years, I tested the EA from Jan 2012 on wards, with very different results. It looses everything in the account in a pretty quick time!
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I have written an EA that I have spent a few hundred hours back testing with various settings. Because of these tests, I think I have come up with very specific settings that seem to work unbelievably.
Most of my testing has been from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2005.
In this time, the EA masses over US$9M profit starting with just US$200...
I know that back testing results aren't something to use, but those figures are mind blowing to me.
Because I know that the forex market can change a lot over the months and years, I tested the EA from Jan 2012 on wards, with very different results. It looses everything in the account in a pretty quick time!
My questions...
1. Is back testing something I can actually use as an indication of the possible profits/losses in real trading?
2. Is it really possible to make the profits I am seeing in the 2003-2005 back testing?
3. What happened in the market to make the massive difference in profits after 2005? (I'm pretty sure that no one will be able to give me a really accurate answer to this one)
The basics of my EA... (1 Min time frame)
1. Works on SMA of 30 Periods and 0 shift.
2. If the Bid Price is 130 pips above the SMA place a Sell order (130 TP and 650 SL)
3. If the Bid Price is 130 pips below the SMA place a Buy order (130 TP and 650 SL)
4. Only open one order at a time, so if there is an un-closed order, there are no others placed.