Most sucessful? - page 3
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Exactly. Nobody is going to publish a wining EA. Even if the EA is commercial and claiming it will make millions then why sell it? Why does the person that wrote the EA not just make the millions and have a happy life? Forget about all the EA's you see on the net other than to look at coding techniques and to get ideas.
On your second part the only success I have had with an EA I have developed so far is using exactly the method that you describe above - macd to find entry, stoch and ma's as filters. This is over about six months of trying to find a strategy that works without having commited one cent in the real market. And I have coded LOTS of EA's. I am currently refining the above strategy which should take me another couple of months. One important lesson that I have learned is not to mess with lower timeframes - I started at 30mins and have now moved up to 4h timeframe and get the same equity gain over time but with a fraction of the number of trades and consequently far lower risk.
Actually people claiming that a good ea won't be selled are wrong. Suppose you have an EA that can take you from 1.000usd to 300.000usd in 5 years. Do you picture it? Good. Now, sell it at 300usd a copy and you will get there just with 1000 copies sold: way before 5years have passed. It's just another way of capitalizing on your work, two different sources of income. Intelligent people have several sources of income coming from different types of assets.
Even if I found my top-notch-holy-grail, I would definetely sell it with some added value to my customers. Selling an EA is not just a piece of code that I can also share in this forum, is a service. People will pay you to get the product, learn how to install it and make some money. Most people don't make a 10% of their money per year, the assets that have performed well last decade are minoritarian (For instance, gold, silver and some tech stocks) and most people would gladly pay for a product than can make a measly 30-40% a year.
The "it won't be sold" mentality only cares about the product, but there is much more being sold with it.
Cheers :)
Exactly. Nobody is going to publish a wining EA. Even if the EA is commercial and claiming it will make millions then why sell it? Why does the person that wrote the EA not just make the millions and have a happy life? Forget about all the EA's you see on the net other than to look at coding techniques and to get ideas.
On your second part the only success I have had with an EA I have developed so far is using exactly the method that you describe above - macd to find entry, stoch and ma's as filters. This is over about six months of trying to find a strategy that works without having commited one cent in the real market. And I have coded LOTS of EA's. I am currently refining the above strategy which should take me another couple of months. One important lesson that I have learned is not to mess with lower timeframes - I started at 30mins and have now moved up to 4h timeframe and get the same equity gain over time but with a fraction of the number of trades and consequently far lower risk.
Lower timeframes are my personal pain, they move too much! What do you base your stoploss on?
I use the average bar length over X periods. Optimal X found using optimizer. Once you have the average, check this against your risk as the average could be quite high during times of high volatility. If the average falls within your risk profile, use the average as your stoploss. Another handy feature of the average is to get the average over 2 bars and then to compare against a longer term average to check for spikes or sharp moves. I also use the above trick to check if there has just been a very sharp movement before entering a trade.
Hello,
I'd like to share my opinion with you and it is the following: trading and markets are complex. You can write a great EA that makes you tons of profits, but it all depends on how good is your trading strategy and your hability to code it. We are all looking for our holy grial in different directions, and we would all point you to different places. So I'll point you into mine, which comes from my personal experience: the simplest way to make a killing EA is to find a simple hedge against the market (52%-48% is enough) and use an aggresive money management strategy to exploit it. The goal of my ea's are to behave like a casino, being my broker or whichever is taking the opposite trade the irreponsable gambler.
Great traders will tell you that a measly 30% winning trades selection must be enough to make a fortune, and for some of them, it is.
Exploit your hedge and make the broker play against you like a madman.
That being said: trading is fun for me. But I make the big bucks by value investing.
Cheers.
There are good ea's, but how they are used can be bad.
Before I go into that, let me share some more things with you that might give you some other insights. I have attached another spread sheet that you might find enlightening. When you open it, you will see a chart. Zoom in to 50% and you will see it better. The green line is a 100 sma, the red line is a 20 sma, the grey line is an 8 sma, and the black line is a line graph of the price. Use the bottom bar to scroll the chart left and right. Hit cntrl c to generate a new chart.
Now, someone who knows about reading charts will tell you there are obvious patterns on the chart-- double and triple tops and bottoms, head and shoulders, support and resistance, consolidation periods, and strong trending periods. They might even venture to give you the fundamentals of why these patterns occur.
But surprise, this chart is generated by a random sequence of numbers. Zoom in to 100% and look at the cells in column A. You will see random functions.
The chart is generated by the following rules: a "1" means an uptick, a "0" means no change, and a "-1" means a downtick. These 1's, 0's, and -1's, were than continously summed, each cell representing an increment of time. The resulting sum was the cumulative price for that point in time. The results were than graphed as seen in the chart.
Interesting, isn't it? The chart resembles a "real" chart, but the whole thing was generated by a random sequence of numbers!
There has been an on going debate among academics about the nature of the real market. Is it just pure randomness or is it driven by other deterministic factors?
Well, evidence-- historical data-- shows it is not just a random process. There are too many things that occur in the market that do not agree with standard finance models, such as ones that use the normal bell curve to describe the market. If you want more info on this, read MandelBrot's, The (MIS)Behavior of Markets. (Mandelbrot is the discoverer of fractals.) Reading this book is where I got my inspiration to make this excel chart.
Now, whether or not the real market is random, pseudo-random, or all of it is driven by fundamentals, doesn't really matter for a trader or one who writes ea's. What matters in my opinion is that trends occur in the real charts and even in random charts. The trend is your friend and it is the core reason why you can make any money trading, no matter what system or method you use. Think about, you go long or short, but you only make money if the price continues in the direction you initated the trade. If the market trends, you make money no matter if it trends for 1 minute, 5 minutes, 1 hour, or a day. It's the only way you can make money.
Now, here is my philosophy of using EA's. First, I think they are mis-used when they are over-used. I am very leery of any EA system that has the EA going 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This is stretching the "artificial intelligence" of the EA to its extreme, and beyond. Read how many commercial EA's out there that make spectacular claims, that bomb out in the long term. There are many garden variety of them.
We need to remember an EA is a computer program. It uses Boolean logic to "think". It is a machine, that uses the impedance states of transistors to store logical ones and zeroes. It could just as well, but not as fast, use mechanical switches to store ones and zeroes. Its a stretch for an EA to "read" the market like a human can. Some computer scientists might create ultra-fast systems that mimic this, but who can afford to have a Cray multi-processing computer in their house or apartment running an EA? The advantage that an EA has over a human is two fold: an EA is fast and it can store lots of information. And yes, it doesn't need sleep or food.
When I trade using an EA, I like to use the analogy of the falconer. I am a forex falconer. The ea is the falcon or golden eagle or whatever raptor you want.
How does a falconer operate? He takes his bird out for the hunt and looks at the conditions-- the weather, the sky, and then releases the bird. He does not release the bird in a storm or leave the bird for days and nights to hunt and return days later to see how the bird is doing. No, the falconer releases the bird to capture the prey only as long as the falconer needs to, to accomplish his goal of capturing a prey, and then the falconer goes home with the bird.
When I trade I look at the market conditions, not my ea, for the dips and rallies in trends at or near fibonacci levels. Then I use an EA to get into the trade to buy on a rally or sell on a dip after a moving average crossover occurs. The crossover is the trigger point in most cases for my bird to be released, my EA to take the trade, if this crossover occurs near a fibonaaci retracement. Then, I let the trade fly has long as the market conditions allow it. I use the EA because I might be asleep when the crossover occurs. If the trade reaches a point when the trend ends, my bird is tired and ready to come home. This can happen when one ma crosses over another ma or I might let it fly to a fibonacci extension. When the trend is clearly ending, I get out and stay out for the next trade when the market conditions are ready for another trade.
Whipsaw is a market storm, keep the bird home when this happens. The ma's will be a tangled mess. Cherry pick when you will release your falcon EA. A diving falcon has been clocked at 180 mph, the fastest mammal on earth. But the falcon won't do this in a storm.
Any success I have had in trading has occured when I use this one-time trading, falconer-bird partnership method, when I don't over-trade. Don't try to over-use an ea or make one that runs all the time. There might be some out there that claim to work, but has there really been a third-party objective test of their claims? Time is the final sifter that allows the true expectation value to fall out.
Forest,
I can relate to this story, the falcon and the hunt. I have always been close to nature and the hunt. I am a person of the land---not a trader ---or a programmer----and never will be a programmer---but I may learn enough to make a few changes in one. Now if you wanted to ask me about producing a healthy product----grass fed beef I could probably tell you about it. You guys know by now that I do not know anything about programming but I did trade options some years ago and attended a seminar and studied with these guys for a while, take a look at this video. It will explain the idea better. It worked well ten years ago on stocks before everything went crazy. Does anyone think it would work with pairs? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlyB5ST9K-Yk Look at the clip if you have time. I know things are not as simple as this clip implies since I have used them and their website. I considered it big bucks for me ----would have been different if I had been trading a large account so I dropped it. I have been looking at charts with all this in my mind and manually adding the arrows to the charts as they appear. Lots of times I do not have time to keep up with the charts and the timing at times is critical with pairs. I just think that a ea with certain parameters would be a really good tool to have. I generally look at four pairs --with a tool like this who knows!!!!!!!
Exactly. Nobody is going to publish a wining EA. Even if the EA is commercial and claiming it will make millions then why sell it? Why does the person that wrote the EA not just make the millions and have a happy life? Forget about all the EA's you see on the net other than to look at coding techniques and to get ideas.
On your second part the only success I have had with an EA I have developed so far is using exactly the method that you describe above - macd to find entry, stoch and ma's as filters. This is over about six months of trying to find a strategy that works without having commited one cent in the real market. And I have coded LOTS of EA's. I am currently refining the above strategy which should take me another couple of months. One important lesson that I have learned is not to mess with lower timeframes - I started at 30mins and have now moved up to 4h timeframe and get the same equity gain over time but with a fraction of the number of trades and consequently far lower risk.
Forest,
I can relate to this story, the falcon and the hunt. I have always been close to nature and the hunt. I am a person of the land---not a trader ---or a programmer----and never will be a programmer---but I may learn enough to make a few changes in one. Now if you wanted to ask me about producing a healthy product----grass fed beef I could probably tell you about it. You guys know by now that I do not know anything about programming but I did trade options some years ago and attended a seminar and studied with these guys for a while, take a look at this video. It will explain the idea better. It worked well ten years ago on stocks before everything went crazy. Does anyone think it would work with pairs? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlyB5ST9K-Yk Look at the clip if you have time. I know things are not as simple as this clip implies since I have used them and their website. I considered it big bucks for me ----would have been different if I had been trading a large account so I dropped it. I have been looking at charts with all this in my mind and manually adding the arrows to the charts as they appear. Lots of times I do not have time to keep up with the charts and the timing at times is critical with pairs. I just think that a ea with certain parameters would be a really good tool to have. I generally look at four pairs --with a tool like this who knows!!!!!!!