@Zzuegg, thats why I said 98% ;). A trend have to develop before you can say it's a Trend IMO. For this reason u as well as I have searched for predictive methods. Also, just to clarify, by trend I mean price-action trend and not pattens which repeat themselves.
My grand-mother can spot a trend. Once you do, the question becomes how long would it last and how much should I risk. If you risk too much the intra day movement would put you in Over-betting risk exposures. If you risk too little, you're not gonna make much, if and only if it lasts. The best systems in the world would only ketch 50% of the trend move. The part that says oh-yea it's a trend and oh-no the trend is over cannot be determined by technical analysis alone.
But don't think fundamental analysis is all heaven and is less useful for entry/exits than even TA. IMO.
Added: I'm not a Mathematician or anything. But I'll guess even a randomly generated chart would show signs of what we call Trend. Like clouds creating faces.
No;) That's what I thought. when you try it though, you get randomly generated nothing:)
Thanks for the kind words.
Systems based on statistics by definition have the same characteristics as overoptimized systems with the advantage that the adapt automatically.
In theory you should gain a nice edge by combining statistical informations such as how many candles goes in the same directions as the previous. (the attached indicator does that)
If the value is higher then 0 you should trade only in the same direction as the previous candle, if it is below 0 should countertrade. In theory, by analyzing all timeframes simultaneosly the probabillity should increase, and so does you edge. However, as good it sounds, it never worked for me. Maybe by adding statistics about the size of bars in each direction allows you to extract good stoploss and takeprofit values.
zzuegg... However, as good it sounds, it never worked for me.
Did it not work live or in the back-tester?
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