Summer holiday in forex market?

[Garnak]

Hello,

I have a question on what to expect from the upcoming summer holiday season.

Last year we experienced crazy conditions in the forex market during summer time, but what has been the norm throughout the years?

I'm asking since I'm a bit uncertain whether I should put my EA's to rest or let them run through the summer. I know there are no guarantees in forex, but just wanted to hear some more experienced traders/programmers opinion on this.

Looking forward to your reply.

Best regards

Garnak

PS: If you have additional advice on which periods to let your EA's rest I'm more than interested in learning about this.

[Brian Dee - Random Trader]

G

> what has been the norm throughout the years?

No such thing in Forex, its just too dynamic

> last year we experienced crazy conditions in the forex market during summer time

And in the fall...

It merely reflected general market conditions of instablility relating to the start of the global recession, triggered by the sub-prime issues and subsequent domino effect

In 2007 they were at least 3 major periods of market action, with hindsight these were pointers to storm clouds brewing for 08
Many good long term EA's went into losing periods for a while

We saw at least 8 changes of market pattern in 2008, many/most EA's lost the plot in the last 6 weeks of 08

So far in 09, I have lost track of how many different pattern changes, around 6-8 depending how you look at it, even systems that have a 10 year track record started losing

Some stabillity came back mid-April and May and I had hoped this years summer would be steadier but there is a definite paranoia around and EA's just have to get smarter in relation to the big picture

I thought that this years sub-prime failures would have an effect in the fall, but instability has come sooner, with everything from N Korean nukes to Chinese and ECB policy comments are causing reversals at every turn

> should put my EA's to rest

If they are in profit, let them run, if there are losses are outside their expected values in number or size, turn them off until weekly back-testing shows they are back "in the zone"

Do this with as much objectivity as possible, be ruthless, even with an EA that has been great for a long time...

FWIW

-BB-