Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Profil

Major Calendar News

Time (GMT) Name Country Vol. Prev. Cons. Sentiment

12:30 Core Retail Sales m/m USD High -0.1% 0.4% Negative

12:30 PPI m/m USD High -0.2% 0.3% Neutral

12:30 Retail Sales m/m USD High -0.1% 0.1% Negative

12:30 Core PPI m/m USD Med. 0.0% 0.1% Neutral

14:00 BOC Monetary Policy Statement CAD High - - Neutral

14:00 BOC Rate Statement CAD High - - Neutral

14:00 Overnight Rate CAD High 0.5% 0.5% Neutral

14:30 Crude Oil Inventories CAD High -4.9M 0.9M Negative

15:15 BOC Press Conference CAD High - - Neutral

18:00 Beige Book USD Med. - - Neutral

01:30 (14/04) Employment Change AUD High 0.3K 18.6K Neutral

01:30 (14/04) Unemployment Rate AUD High 5.8% 5.9% Neutral

Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus

Dollar bears were installed with inspiration during trading on Tuesday with the USDCAD plunging to fresh weekly lows at 1.285 as expectations continued to fade over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates again in Q2. The USDCAD has declined over 150 pips this week and with oil markets displaying violent bursts of volatility, this pair may be set for a very steep depreciation in April. From a technical standpoint, the candlesticks are trading below both the 20 and 50 SMA while the MACD trades deep into the downside. Previous support around 1.3050 may transform into a dynamic resistance which could encourage a further decline towards 1.280 and potentially lower.

EUR/USD

The single currency keeps trading sideways between 1.1430/50 zone in the upside and 1.1335/00 in the downside as investors are waiting for a catalyst to drive this pair.

Therefore, we maintain our neutral outlook in the short-term while in the daily chart; the trend remains bullish as far as the single currency keep trading above 1.1140 level.

If the pair manage to overtake its hourly resistance zone, then we expect another rally towards 1.1500 psychological barrier to begin. In addition, traders should keep in mind that the single currency has already broke higher from its symmetrical triangle, which keeps the upside pressure very strong.

Support: 1.1335-1.1300-1.1250

Resistance: 1.1450-1.1500-1.1710

Changing the game plan in FX


Currency markets are in what can only be described as a state of flux at the moment. Leaving aside the yen, which has risen for the past seven consecutive sessions, we’ve seen the dominant trends of the past few weeks partially reversed (or at least stalled), making the bigger directional movements far harder to call. We see that in sterling, the Canadian dollar, the Aussie and the single currency to varying degrees. Beneath all of this, we see the dollar struggling as many have been forced to ditch the view of a dollar rising on the basis of divergent monetary policies. The dollar index is now 6% lower on the year to date, which was not in the game plan of longer-term investors. For sterling, the focus this week is less on the Brexit story and more on the domestic agenda, with inflation data released today and the Bank of England decision following on Thursday. For now at least, this is of secondary importance for the currency as compared to the EUR referendum in June, as expectations for a near-term change in policy are very low in either direction. Interest rate markets suggest around a 30% chance of an easing before the year-end, which is not a view widely expressed by commentators, but nevertheless is another factors that has been weighing on the currency of late.

Elsewhere, Brazil is catching the headlines as the political turmoil continues, edging towards the possible impeachment of President Rousseff. The currency, having been battered last year, continues to rally on the basis that the end is that much nearer for the currency period of political turmoil and stalemate. The real remains the strongest performing emerging market currency so far this year, but beneath the surface the fundamentals remain fairly ugly, with another year of negative growth forecast for this year after last year’s decline. So whilst promising, the political story can only drive up the currency so far before the ugly fundamental

EUR/USD

The single currency keeps trading sideways between 1.1430/50 zone in the upside and 1.1335/00 in the downside as investors are waiting for a catalyst to drive this pair.

Therefore, we maintain our neutral outlook in the short-term while in the daily chart; the trend remains bullish as far as the single currency keep trading above 1.1140 level.

In the meantime, momentum indicators began to show some signs of slowdown in the near-term, which may keep the scenario of a downside correction likely, especially if the pair breaks below 1.1335 hourly support. In the other side, a break above 1.1450 will call for 1.1500 in the next days.

Support: 1.1335-1.1300-1.1250

Resistance: 1.1450-1.1500-1.1710

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The GBPUSD unexpectedly sprung towards 1.4250 during trading on Monday which had nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the Sterling, but potential ongoing Dollar weakness. Regardless of these short-term gains, this pair is bearish and may be set to decline ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday at which most broadly anticipate that UK interest rates will be left unchanged. Investors must keep in mind that ongoing Brexit concerns have haunted investor attraction towards the Sterling while tepid data from the UK economy has heightened fears over a potential economic deceleration. From a technical standpoint, there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD still trades to the downside. The technical bounce may offer an opportunity for sellers to send prices much lower towards 1.400 with bears keeping control as long as the 1.4400 resistance defends.

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: further advance.






Pivot: 39.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 39.00 with targets @ 41.25 & 41.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39.00 look for further downside with 38.25 & 37.44 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Gold spot Intraday: further upside.






Pivot: 1239.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1239.00 with targets @ 1255.50 & 1262.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1239.00 look for further downside with 1232.00 & 1226.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.



Pivot: 0.7520

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7520 with targets @ 0.7590 & 0.7635 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7520 look for further downside with 0.7490 & 0.7455 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 0.7520 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.



Pivot: 108.50

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 108.50 with targets @ 107.00 & 106.15 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 108.50 look for further upside with 109.15 & 109.95 as targets.

Comment: as long as 108.50 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.



Pivot: 1.4145

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.4145 with targets @ 1.4280 & 1.4320 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4145 look for further downside with 1.4050 & 1.4000 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.1360.



Pivot: 1.1360

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1360 with targets @ 1.1430 & 1.1455 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1335 & 1.1310 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.