stratjag / Profil

Gold basically did a controlled gravity turn. After ripping to ~4,26k on Monday (fresh six-week high), XAUUSD has spent the latest session sliding back into the 4,21k–4,20k zone, printing a small red daily candle: high near 4,23k, low in the high-4,18x, close just above 4,21k. Big desks are all calling it the same thing your chart shows - a tidy correction, not a crash. Traders took profits into that 4,25k–4,26k wall, the dollar and yields got a bit of a bounce, and price is now testing 4,20k as the main pivot. Most serious tech reads still frame 4,16k–4,15k as “deep but okay” support and 4,25k–4,26k as the ceiling that needs a real macro catalyst to break. So the signal is basically on point: we’re in a cool-down loop inside an uptrend, and the big question for the next leg is simple - does 4,20k hold as launchpad, or do we finally get a proper flush toward those lower supports before the next attempt at orbit (market commentary only).

XAUUSD was cruising around the 4,23k zone after tagging ~4,26k earlier today, still only a few percent below the all-time high near 4,38k and up roughly 6% on the month and about 60% year-on-year. The story is pretty straightforward: markets are leaning hard into 2025 Fed-cut bets, real yields are capped, the dollar isn’t putting up much of a fight, and central banks + ETFs keep hoarding metal, so every dip gets treated like a bug to be bought, not a feature to panic about. On my signal, today’s tape looked like a classic “overclock then cool-down” sequence. Bright green grind straight into the ~4.26k spike, then the moment that move exhausts around mid-session, price flips red and starts cascading lower, so keeping track.

Gold is trading in the low $4,200s/ounce after the rally, with spot XAUUSD hovering just off record highs as investors lean into a softening dollar, growing conviction in 2026 Fed rate cuts, and heavy central-bank plus ETF demand. The move left gold up by roughly 40%< YTD, cementing its role as a core hedge. Technically price is consolidating beneath the all-time high near $4,380, with a cluster of short-term support levels in the $4,140-4,180 area and resistance building from roughly $4,245 up to $4,300. Market experts note that as long as spot holds above that mid-$4,100 shelf the broader structure remains a bullish trend pause rather than a reversal, even if momentum indicators are inviting tactical pullbacks. Looking ahead, the near-term path for XAUUSD hinges on incoming U.S. data and Fed communication: a re-acceleration in growth or renewed hawkishness could trigger a sharper correction, but the medium-term backdrop is still skewed to the upside, with major banks now projecting average prices in the high-$3,000s to mid-$4,000s for 2026 and upside scenarios that extend toward the $4,900–$5,000 zone if real yields drift lower and official-sector buying stays robust.

Sources/Data: Investing.com; Bloomberg; FXStreet; J.P.Morgan Research;

My current mix of internal strategies plus a couple of high-quality EAs is delivering solid results on my demo account. The plan is to keep scaling it until the 90-day mark. If you want to collaborate or explore ideas, feel free to reach out.

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