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I am a professional Forex trader and Money manager hailing from Bangladesh, with a trading background that spans back to 2015.
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Join here for more updates:
Telegram: https://t.me/mql5signals_Sarowar
Personal Contacts:
WhatsApp: +8801617276927
Telegram: https://t.me/SarowarJahan
Email: sarowarjahan@outlook.com
Sarowar Jahan
Gold: Three main ways to get exposure to XAU/USD – Morgan Stanley
After years of trading in a narrow range of around $1,200 an ounce, gold has been trading above $1,700 for the past year. While the yellow metal is not a strategic asset class, there are tactical reasons to consider adding it now. The Morgan Stanley analyst team lays out three ways to go about it.
Physical gold
“Investors may pay a premium over the spot price of gold. The gold is physically held by a third party, not Morgan Stanley. Storage fees usually apply. Investors can also take delivery of physical gold if they want to store it themselves. In such cases, delivery fees would apply.”
Gold funds that own the metal
Some mutual funds and exchange-traded funds also offer investors exposure to gold. For those that are pure-play, their value tracks the price of gold. The fund shoulders the cost of holding physical supply and passes it along to the investors in the expense ratio. There are some drawbacks: Some gold funds are taxed as collectibles, so they don’t benefit from the lower long-term capital gains rates for which stocks may qualify. Plus, they don’t produce any income, so the expense ratio can eat into principal every year.”
Mining companies
“Investors can get exposure through equity in companies that mine for gold, including the purchase of individual stocks or as part of a fund. ‘The mining companies tend to be more volatile than physical gold,’ says Michael Jabara, a Managing Director of Wealth Management’s fund due to diligence group. Typically, the mining sector correlates with the price of gold, but individual stocks may face company-specific risks, Jabara says.”
After years of trading in a narrow range of around $1,200 an ounce, gold has been trading above $1,700 for the past year. While the yellow metal is not a strategic asset class, there are tactical reasons to consider adding it now. The Morgan Stanley analyst team lays out three ways to go about it.
Physical gold
“Investors may pay a premium over the spot price of gold. The gold is physically held by a third party, not Morgan Stanley. Storage fees usually apply. Investors can also take delivery of physical gold if they want to store it themselves. In such cases, delivery fees would apply.”
Gold funds that own the metal
Some mutual funds and exchange-traded funds also offer investors exposure to gold. For those that are pure-play, their value tracks the price of gold. The fund shoulders the cost of holding physical supply and passes it along to the investors in the expense ratio. There are some drawbacks: Some gold funds are taxed as collectibles, so they don’t benefit from the lower long-term capital gains rates for which stocks may qualify. Plus, they don’t produce any income, so the expense ratio can eat into principal every year.”
Mining companies
“Investors can get exposure through equity in companies that mine for gold, including the purchase of individual stocks or as part of a fund. ‘The mining companies tend to be more volatile than physical gold,’ says Michael Jabara, a Managing Director of Wealth Management’s fund due to diligence group. Typically, the mining sector correlates with the price of gold, but individual stocks may face company-specific risks, Jabara says.”
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
The first BOE meeting for the year is scheduled for Thursday and is set to be a very interesting event as the bank will finally reveal its long-awaited study on the impact of negative interest rates.
Recently we’ve taking a bullish bias on the GBP as there has been more positive drivers than negative ones. The first positive took place on the 12th of January after Governor Bailey pushed back against negative interest rates, which saw the markets pushing back their expectations for the bank taking rates to negative territory later this year.
After that we’ve also seen a remarkable reduction in new virus cases across the UK as the extended lockdown measures have started to do their job. We’ve also had a huge cloud of uncertainty removed after the EU and the UK agreed on a trade deal at the end of the last year.
Arguably, one of the most positive developments has been the UK’s vaccination program, which is currently well ahead of the EU and US by getting the population towards herd immunity. There is still a long way to go of course but a good start, nonetheless.
Thus, we believe there are more positives for the GBP right now, and this week’s upcoming BOE meeting might just be the cherry on top of the cake to seal the deal for more GBP strength to come.
#GBP #FUNDAMENTAL
Recently we’ve taking a bullish bias on the GBP as there has been more positive drivers than negative ones. The first positive took place on the 12th of January after Governor Bailey pushed back against negative interest rates, which saw the markets pushing back their expectations for the bank taking rates to negative territory later this year.
After that we’ve also seen a remarkable reduction in new virus cases across the UK as the extended lockdown measures have started to do their job. We’ve also had a huge cloud of uncertainty removed after the EU and the UK agreed on a trade deal at the end of the last year.
Arguably, one of the most positive developments has been the UK’s vaccination program, which is currently well ahead of the EU and US by getting the population towards herd immunity. There is still a long way to go of course but a good start, nonetheless.
Thus, we believe there are more positives for the GBP right now, and this week’s upcoming BOE meeting might just be the cherry on top of the cake to seal the deal for more GBP strength to come.
#GBP #FUNDAMENTAL
· 3
Sarowar Jahan
USD/CAD: Risks Remain Elevated To The Upside On structural Flow Grounds - BofA
Bank of America Global Research flags upside risks for USD/CAD over the medium-term from structural flows.
"Canada's net portfolio investment (PI) balance with the rest of the world (RoW) deteriorated to a deficit of -C$6.7bn (-C$4.6bn debt, -C$2.1bn equity) in September from a surplus of C$9.6bn (C$11.1bn debt, -C$1.5bn equity) in August. This was the result of weaker foreign purchases of Canadian debt and stronger Canadian purchases of foreign debt and equities...The precipitous falloff in appetite for Canadian debt (due in part we think to scaling back of BoC asset purchases) has vastly overwhelmed the uptick in appetite for Canadian equities, at the same time as Canadian appetite for foreign (emphasis: US) assets has sharply increased," BofA notes.
"We therefore remain concerned about Canada's external financing prospects as well as its large, increasing bilateral deficit with the US. Given Canada's persistent structural deficit (the result of deficits in the current account and net direct investment), net PI inflows are consistently needed. Accordingly, downside CAD TWI and upside USD/CAD and risks remain elevated on structural flow grounds, in our view," BofA adds.
Bank of America Global Research flags upside risks for USD/CAD over the medium-term from structural flows.
"Canada's net portfolio investment (PI) balance with the rest of the world (RoW) deteriorated to a deficit of -C$6.7bn (-C$4.6bn debt, -C$2.1bn equity) in September from a surplus of C$9.6bn (C$11.1bn debt, -C$1.5bn equity) in August. This was the result of weaker foreign purchases of Canadian debt and stronger Canadian purchases of foreign debt and equities...The precipitous falloff in appetite for Canadian debt (due in part we think to scaling back of BoC asset purchases) has vastly overwhelmed the uptick in appetite for Canadian equities, at the same time as Canadian appetite for foreign (emphasis: US) assets has sharply increased," BofA notes.
"We therefore remain concerned about Canada's external financing prospects as well as its large, increasing bilateral deficit with the US. Given Canada's persistent structural deficit (the result of deficits in the current account and net direct investment), net PI inflows are consistently needed. Accordingly, downside CAD TWI and upside USD/CAD and risks remain elevated on structural flow grounds, in our view," BofA adds.
· 6
Sarowar Jahan
Sell USD/JPY - TD trade of the week.
TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The spot is at 104.85
"Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.
"As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."
TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The spot is at 104.85
"Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.
"As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."
· 4
Sarowar Jahan
EUR/USD: On The Defensive Ahead Of A Volatile Week; What's Next? - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections.
"We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes.
"That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range.
Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved – eg, a surprise re-election of President Trump and a Republican control of the Senate – could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections.
"We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes.
"That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range.
Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved – eg, a surprise re-election of President Trump and a Republican control of the Senate – could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.
· 4
Sarowar Jahan
GBP/USD: Brexit A Sideshow For Building COVID Risks; Staying Short - MUFG
MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630.
"The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vlieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was “skewed towards adding further stimulus”. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes.
"In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.
MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630.
"The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vlieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was “skewed towards adding further stimulus”. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes.
"In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
GBP/USD: Cable's Stable Floor Around 1.28 But Uncertainty Is Acute - TD
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term.
"A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes.
"Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the “Deal” on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term.
"A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes.
"Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the “Deal” on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
BoC To Cut In April - CIBC
CIBC discussed its interpretation of today's BoC meeting; arguing the meeting supports their call for a rate cut in April.
CIBC explains:
Sitting comfortably with an economy near full employment and the 2% inflation target, there was no pressing reason for Governor Poloz to get up from his easy chair today, but the Bank is now a bit more worried that it will have to act. Rates were left on hold at 1.75%, but the accompanying statement didn't sound as assured that this would continue to be the case. Its concluding line mentioned that it will be "watching closely" for signs that the recent slowdown persists, particularly watching consumption, housing and business investment.
We'll hold to our view that a climb in unemployment in the coming months will tests the Bank's confidence about consumption, leading to a quarter-point cut in April. Bullish for short rates and bearish for the C$, given the more dovish statement than expected by markets today.
CIBC discussed its interpretation of today's BoC meeting; arguing the meeting supports their call for a rate cut in April.
CIBC explains:
Sitting comfortably with an economy near full employment and the 2% inflation target, there was no pressing reason for Governor Poloz to get up from his easy chair today, but the Bank is now a bit more worried that it will have to act. Rates were left on hold at 1.75%, but the accompanying statement didn't sound as assured that this would continue to be the case. Its concluding line mentioned that it will be "watching closely" for signs that the recent slowdown persists, particularly watching consumption, housing and business investment.
We'll hold to our view that a climb in unemployment in the coming months will tests the Bank's confidence about consumption, leading to a quarter-point cut in April. Bullish for short rates and bearish for the C$, given the more dovish statement than expected by markets today.
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
Fundamental Analysis - AUD
Date: 28-May-2019
AUD - Very Bearish
At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.
However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.
Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.
Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.
What do you think?
Date: 28-May-2019
AUD - Very Bearish
At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.
However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.
Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.
Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.
What do you think?
· 1