At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.
However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.
Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.
Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.
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