Sarowar Jahan

Fundamental Analysis - AUD
Date: 28-May-2019

AUD - Very Bearish

At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.

However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.

Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.

Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.

What do you think?

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Last 20 closed trades of Pips Factory

USDCHF: 96 Pips
USDJPY: 97 Pips
EURUSD: 96 Pips
AUDCAD: 80 Pips
EURGBP: 99 Pips
GBPNZD: 213 Pips
NZDCHF: 53 Pips
USDJPY: 101 Pips
AUDJPY: 116 Pips
NZDCAD: 84 Pips
AUDJPY: 190 Pips
EURUSD: 72 Pips
USDJPY: 75 Pips
AUDCAD: 130 Pips
GBPAUD: 171 Pips
NZDJPY: 139 Pips
EURAUD: 178 Pips
EURNZD: 166 Pips
GBPNZD: 139 Pips
GBPCAD: 130 Pips

Total: 2425 Pips

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Last 20 closed trades of Pips Factory

USDCHF 96 Pips
USDJPY 97 Pips
EURUSD 96 Pips
AUDCAD 80 Pips
EURGBP 99 Pips
GBPNZD 213 Pips
NZDCHF 53 Pips
USDJPY 101 Pips
AUDJPY 116 Pips
NZDCAD 84 Pips
AUDJPY 190 Pips
EURUSD 72 Pips
USDJPY 75 Pips
AUDCAD 130 Pips
GBPAUD 171 Pips
NZDJPY 139 Pips
EURAUD 178 Pips
EURNZD 166 Pips
GBPNZD 139 Pips
GBPCAD 130 Pips

Total: 2425 Pips

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Last 5 closed trades of Pips Factory

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NZDCAD: 169 pips (Date: 09-Apr-19)
AUDNZD: 217 pips (Date: 05-Apr-19)

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