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Hi In my signal name "Lets Trade", according to MQL5 equity is $4646.03 (No Running trades) but according to my MT4 equity is $4695.33. Why there is a difference of $49.3? Please check the attached screenshots
USD/CAD: Risks Remain Elevated To The Upside On structural Flow Grounds - BofA
Bank of America Global Research flags upside risks for USD/CAD over the medium-term from structural flows.
"Canada's net portfolio investment (PI) balance with the rest of the world (RoW) deteriorated to a deficit of -C$6.7bn (-C$4.6bn debt, -C$2.1bn equity) in September from a surplus of C$9.6bn (C$11.1bn debt, -C$1.5bn equity) in August. This was the result of weaker foreign purchases of Canadian debt and stronger Canadian purchases of foreign debt and equities...The precipitous falloff in appetite for Canadian debt (due in part we think to scaling back of BoC asset purchases) has vastly overwhelmed the uptick in appetite for Canadian equities, at the same time as Canadian appetite for foreign (emphasis: US) assets has sharply increased," BofA notes.
"We therefore remain concerned about Canada's external financing prospects as well as its large, increasing bilateral deficit with the US. Given Canada's persistent structural deficit (the result of deficits in the current account and net direct investment), net PI inflows are consistently needed. Accordingly, downside CAD TWI and upside USD/CAD and risks remain elevated on structural flow grounds, in our view," BofA adds.
TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The spot is at 104.85
"Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.
"As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."
EUR/USD: On The Defensive Ahead Of A Volatile Week; What's Next? - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections.
"We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes.
"That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range.
Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved – eg, a surprise re-election of President Trump and a Republican control of the Senate – could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.
GBP: Cable Still A Sell Above 1.30; EUR/GBP Likely Heading Towards 0.92 N-Term - Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse likes selling GBP against the USD and the EUR in the near-term.
"We still see no reason to change our view that EURGBP should gravitate to 0.9200 while Brexit talks proceed, with GBPUSD still a sell above 1.3000. Given the government’s general approach to emotive talks, the odds of talks being concluded in a manner that rules out more apprehension and misunderstandings before a conclusion seem slim still," CS notes.
"We note that the EU parliament, which would need to vote through any agreed deal, does not next month till 23-26 Nov, suggesting that the level of urgency to reach a conclusion will stay relatively low for some weeks to come," CS adds.
GBP/USD: Brexit A Sideshow For Building COVID Risks; Staying Short - MUFG
MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630.
"The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vlieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was “skewed towards adding further stimulus”. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes.
"In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.
GBP/USD: Cable's Stable Floor Around 1.28 But Uncertainty Is Acute - TD
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term.
"A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes.
"Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the “Deal” on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds
I'm glad that you are interested in 'Lets Trade'. This is a 100% manually trading strategy. I use both technical and fundamental analysis to take trades or close my entries. I do not take trades on a daily basis, but you will find trades on a weekly basis. Maximum trades are held for long period of time. Don't worry, it's a part of my strategy. I might take multiple entries on a currency pair and I do not provide SL and TP on the trades but you can check my history that I took losses too
CIBC discussed its interpretation of today's BoC meeting; arguing the meeting supports their call for a rate cut in April.
Sitting comfortably with an economy near full employment and the 2% inflation target, there was no pressing reason for Governor Poloz to get up from his easy chair today, but the Bank is now a bit more worried that it will have to act. Rates were left on hold at 1.75%, but the accompanying statement didn't sound as assured that this would continue to be the case. Its concluding line mentioned that it will be "watching closely" for signs that the recent slowdown persists, particularly watching consumption, housing and business investment.
We'll hold to our view that a climb in unemployment in the coming months will tests the Bank's confidence about consumption, leading to a quarter-point cut in April. Bullish for short rates and bearish for the C$, given the more dovish statement than expected by markets today.