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Hasanboy Beknazarov
Predicting Future Prices on the Forex Chart
This is the closest and most painful topic for traders 🙂
📊 Research (Trader Statistics)
70–90% of retail traders lose money
The main reason is not lack of accuracy, but poor risk management
📈 Realistic Forecast Accuracy
Basic technical analysis: 45–50%
Combined approach
(trend + session + volatility): 52–58%
Professional systems
(algorithms + risk control): 55–65%
High-frequency / institutional trading: 60–70%
(but this is inaccessible to retail traders)
🎯 Very Important Point
In Forex, 60% accuracy is considered extremely high.
🧠 Mathematical Reality
If:
Win rate = 55%
Risk/Reward = 1:2
👉 You will be consistently profitable in the long run.
🎲 What does 50% mean?
50% is a coin toss
Up ↕ down
No edge at all
🎯 What does 55% mean?
55% is an edge
It may look small, but mathematically it makes a huge difference
📊 Example
1,000 trades
55% wins → 550 wins / 450 losses
If:
Loss = 1R
Win = 2R
Result:
Profit = (550 × 2) − (450 × 1) = +650R
👉 Conclusion
This is the real secret of professional trading:
not chasing accuracy, but edge + risk management.
This is the closest and most painful topic for traders 🙂
📊 Research (Trader Statistics)
70–90% of retail traders lose money
The main reason is not lack of accuracy, but poor risk management
📈 Realistic Forecast Accuracy
Basic technical analysis: 45–50%
Combined approach
(trend + session + volatility): 52–58%
Professional systems
(algorithms + risk control): 55–65%
High-frequency / institutional trading: 60–70%
(but this is inaccessible to retail traders)
🎯 Very Important Point
In Forex, 60% accuracy is considered extremely high.
🧠 Mathematical Reality
If:
Win rate = 55%
Risk/Reward = 1:2
👉 You will be consistently profitable in the long run.
🎲 What does 50% mean?
50% is a coin toss
Up ↕ down
No edge at all
🎯 What does 55% mean?
55% is an edge
It may look small, but mathematically it makes a huge difference
📊 Example
1,000 trades
55% wins → 550 wins / 450 losses
If:
Loss = 1R
Win = 2R
Result:
Profit = (550 × 2) − (450 × 1) = +650R
👉 Conclusion
This is the real secret of professional trading:
not chasing accuracy, but edge + risk management.
· 2
Bwalya Tambule
Publicado o código Equity Trailing EA MT5
This EA started off as a job to trail equity. I then added the function of managing individual trades.
Thereafter I added the facility of manually putting the price of when it can send a grid of pending order's.
This EA does not have condition set in it to open trades. You have to determine that if market moves to an area you
believe you would open a grid of orders if you were by your computer watching the market. No what this EA helps is
you wake up in the morning you see the area you a grid to open. PUT THE PRICE FOR THE EA TO OPEN A GRID OF PENDING ORDERS.
If the market reaches the area price you have set. The EA will send the grid and will manage those trades putting Stop Loss (if you set it)
trailing(if you set it). Today 13 Sep 2022 the EA generates has NO ERROR when compiled
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