Dear traders!

A new version of the indicator v3.5 has been published

Now, in addition to arrow signals, you can use the reversal probability of a fast and a slow HMA in your EA.

For this, two buffers with probability values have been added to the indicator.

See usage example:

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Уважаемые трейдеры!

Опубликовано новая версия индикатора v3.5

Теперь, кроме стрелочных сигналов, вы можете использовать в вашем советнике и вероятность разворота быстой и медленной HMA.

Для этого в индикатор добавлены два буфера со значениями вероятности.

Смотрите пример использования:

Dear traders!

The next update of the indicator v3.6 has been published

Now you can use the full power of statistics in your EA:

1. Reversal Probability

2. Mat.expectation of reversal

3. Standard deviation

4. The number of bars in the current movement of the HMA line

All statistical data are transmitted to the Advisor through indicator buffers.
See usage example:

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Уважаемые трейдеры!

Опубликовано очередное обновление индикатора v3.6

Теперь вы можете использовать всю мощь статистических данных в вашем советнике:

1. Вероятность разворота

2. Мат.ожидание разворота

3. Стандартное отклонение

4. Количество баров в текущем движении HMA

Все статистические данные передаются в советник через индикаторные буфера.
Смотрите пример использования:

Dear traders!

In accordance with the new Rules, it is prohibited to place demo versions of products on the Market service. Therefore, to test the functionality of the program, you can download a limited version from here.

This version is fully functional on NZDUSD. On the other instruments, the statistical data are demonstrative (not real!) and there are no preliminary signals.


Уважаемые трейдеры!

В соответствии с новыми Правилами, на сервисе Маркет запрещено размещение демонстрационных версий продуктов. Поэтому, для тестирования функционала программы вы можете скачать ограниченную версию отсюда.

Эта версия полностью функциональна на паре NZDUSD. На других инструментах статистические данные являются демонстрационными (не реальными!) и отсутствует предварительный сигнал.

I presumed you have received private message. Please share the answer or at least provide us explanation how to trade in that situation. Thank you

The first question was this:

I will explain a little what the indicator shows:

The probability of a slow HMA reversal is the probability of a trend reversal. The probability of a reversal of the Fast HMA is the probability of a reversal of the movement of the current timeframe. And the trend consists of several movements of the current TF.

Here is a similar situation on GBPUSD on Friday:

Down trend - the probability of a reversal is 74% and a new downward movement of the current timeframe has just appeared. The probability of a reversal of this movement is small - 12%. What to do in this case? To make a sell deal or not?

When a Slow HMA shows a probability of a reversal of more than 70% - this is a lot, the trend can end at any time, so I no longer make medium-term trades in such cases.

But a prolonged trend may still continue by inertia or a transition to a flat before a reversal is possible, therefore, if the probability of a slow HMA reversal is less than 80% and the price movement of the current timeframe has just begun in the direction of the trend (the probability of a Fast HMA reversal is 10-15%), then a short-term deal is possible. But please keep in mind that the goals of this trade are small, it requires constant monitoring and a mandatory StopLoss!

As for me, I miss such signals, because I can't constantly monitor my trades. I take fast HMA signals when the probability of a slow HMA reversal is no more than 60-70%.

In any case, I do not recommend opening trades if the probability of a slow HMA reversal is 80% or more! It is better to discard this instrument and take another one.

.

I'd rather tell you how I use the indicator in general. Then you will understand which parameters will be the best.

Note: First of all, be sure to use the free "HMA_Color" indicator to visualize the HMA_Trend_Pro indicator (it is in the comments).
The HMA_Trend_Pro indicator are located in subwindow, and HMA_Color draws a visual line in the main chart window, which allows you to understand the principles of HMA_Trend_Pro operation.

The main idea behind my indicator: the HMA line repeats the price movement, smoothing out noise very well.

How do I choose the periods of HMA?

Fast HMA gives the current price movement (we can say that this is the wave of the current TF), slow HMA is the current trend (i.e. this is the wave of the higher TF).
I took the HMA period that defines the wave of the current TF, from 10 to 12. If you set the HMA_Color indicator with a period of 10-12, you will see how well this HMA line describes the current movement on any instrument and any TF!

The ratio of the higher TF and the working TF - the wave of the higher TF is a trend for the working TF

Larger TF / working TF
D1 / H1 (a movement on the D1 is a trend on the H1)
H4 / M30 (a movement on the H4 is a trend on the M30)
H4 / M15 (a movement on the H4 is a trend on the M15)
H1 / M5  (a movement on the H1 is a trend on the M5)
M15 / M1 (a movement on the M15 is a trend on the M1)

For example, if I trade on M5, then I look at the trend on H1.

Let HMA (12) determine the current movement on all TFs that I use.

Suppose that I trade on M5, then I need two HMAs describing the movement on from two TF (M5 and H1)
So I use two HMAs on the M5 with parametres:
HMA (12) - wave on TF M5
HMA (144) - trend on TF M5 (wave on H1) - (12*(60/5)=144)

Drop two instances of the HMA_Color indicator with periods of 12 and 144 on the chart and note that the movement of the HMA_Color indicator on the higher TF almost completely coincides with the trend for the lower TF!

Thus, if the HMA line describes the price movement, then the probability of a reversal of the HMA indicator is the probability of a price reversal.
And by the probability of the reversal of the HMA with different periods, we can estimate the probability of the reversal of the current movement and trend.

Trade first using this simple scheme, without using a statistical block. Just don't try to open trades if the probability of a reversal is more than 70-80%.
Don't try to open trades if the HMA line already has 5-6 bars in one direction. The probability of a reversal or correction is very high. This principle works on any instrument or TF.
You can read more about it here.

And of course, first try the system on a demo account!

Thank you very much for this info!

Здравствуйте!

Ваш вопрос очень хорош!

Конечно, Вы можете загрузить индикатор дважды, с разными параметрами. Ниже я покажу, как это сделать.

Давайте будем исходить из того, что движение текущего таймфрейма будет описываться линией HMA с периодом 12. Более подробно об этом написано здесь.

Тогда, для графика M1 периоды HMA будут такими:

M1: HMA(12)

M5: HMA(60) (12*5=60), т.е. движение цены, описываемое на M5 линией HMA(12), будет проецироваться на график M1 как HMA(60)

M15: HMA(180) (12*15=180), т.е. движение цены, описываемое на M15 линией HMA(12), будет проецироваться на график M1 как HMA(180)

H1: HMA(720) (12*60=720), т.е. движение цены, описываемое на H1 линией HMA(12), будет проецироваться на график M1 как HMA(720)

Теперь вы можете накинуть на график M1 четыре индикатора HMA_Color (можно скачать ниже) с периодами 12, 60, 180, 720 и два экземпляра индикатора HMA_Trend_Pro с настройками как на рисунке:

Hi!,

Just purchased your indicator, It doesn't show the moving average line on the chart ...Am I missing anything?

Thank you for purchasing my indicator!

These lines are a separate indicator HMA_Color, which is designed to visualize and monitor the operation of the HMA_Trend_Pro indicator.

Unfortunately, the terminal cannot display indicator data in the main window and sub-window at the same time. Therefore, you need a separate indicator for lines, which you can download for free.

double UpSignal=iCustom(NULL,0,AdressInd,note1,inpFastPeriod,inpSlowPeriod,MethodHMA,SignalFrequency,ProbabilityFilter,signalsInMainWindow,

                           PanelPosition,clUpTrend,clDnTrend,note44,Sound_On,Alert_On,Mail_On,Push_On,SoundFile,Potential_SoundFile,CurrBarMessage,true,4,1); // 4-th buffer is the UP-signal on 1-st bar

Print("Buy Signal :  ",UpSignal," UpSignal>0 : ",UpSignal>0," Empty: ",UpSignal!=EMPTY_VALUE);

XAUUSDp,H4: Buy Signal :  2147483647.0 UpSignal>0 : true Empty: false