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Over recent weeks, the EUR moved moderately higher, while the JPY accelerated sharply, with USDJPY now nearing our USDJPY 105 year-end target. The negative reaction of the European and the Japanese equity markets to FX strength suggests that the two

In their weekly FX round up Morgan Stanley fancy an aussie short I'm not going to tell you where they want in though. Oh, alright then, as it's Friday. 0.7650 is the magic number they see for shorts "We look to sell AUD on rallies, particularly if

JPY has been the biggest beneficiary from the recent USD-selloff among the major currencies. Several factors seem to have contributed to the rally on the flow side. Hedging flows from the Japanese exporters likely intensified when USD/JPY broke below

George Akerlof offers hints of where he stands George Akerlof is a nobel prize winning economist but he's better known now as Janet Yellen's husband. He rarely weighs in on what needs to be done in central banking but he spoke with the Globe & Mail

EURUSD initially fell to 1.1326 last week, but then managed to return stronger and climb to 1.1453. There has been plenty of news during the last five trading days. From U.S. trade balance, through services ISM reports and FOMC minutes to initial

If you can get the FT (its gated) this is an interesting read (its from last week). It says: under no circumstances will Britain leave Europe, regardless of the result of the referendum on June 23 The author of the piece goes on: Britain looks

We expect further flows from various market participants to continue to support JPY. First, Friday's reluctance for JPY to weaken (indicating de-risking ahead of the weekend) suggests that 'the Street' has not traded JPY long in significant amounts

Deutsche Bank has an interesting argument for why the Federal Reserve may not be able to raise interest rates at all this year. In a note on Monday, Joe LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist, argues that the Fed may be unable to move because

Last week’s MoF data continued to signal strong appetite for foreign securities , with Japanese investors purchasing some JPY 2.3 trn in foreign dent on the week ended March 18, notes BNP Paribas. "Faltering risk environment and strengthening JPY do

Currency investors should consider buying USD/JPY this week , advises Morgan Stanley in its weekly FX pick to clients. " We recommend buying USD/JPY with a target of 117.00 and a stop at 110.50 . Our ARIA indicator points to stronger February US

Williams finishes up the Q&A Won't do negative rates in the foreseeable future Brexit is clearly a risk scenario we are worried about Comments about negative rates should be furthest from their minds if they really wanted to show confidence in their

It’s been only weeks since the Fed’s dovish decision in March, so it’s no surprise today’s speech by Yellen didn’t diverge much from the wait and see stance adopted by the FOMC. But the topic of the speech, why rate hikes when they come will likely

BMG poll Another poll puts the Brexit side with a slight lead. It was an online poll so it doesn't carry much weight

The Fed has done its best to propagate confusion recently. Why the Fed chose to walk the dovish path in March is crucial for the medium-term outlook for the currency If the Fed’s move does reflect a policy shift reflecting a readiness of “falling

While Yellen’s speech was perhaps similar to the March FOMC meeting press-conference, markets have focused on the overall cautious tone with respect to global risks and the lack of any hawkish hints similar to those coming from several regional Fed

A detailed look at US indicators suggests that the economy is unlikely to turn decidedly back upward anytime soon. We expect the data to remain patchy for now, and believe the economy overall, while firm, will continue to lack upward momentum. Still

We argue that the EUR is underpricing the potential economic disruption related to Brexit and shorting EUR/USD is a cheaper way than shorting GBP/USD to hedge for such a possibility. If the UK does exit the EU, we think it is unlikely to only affect

The USD has a seasonal tendency to weaken in April especially if expressed via long AUD/USD, short GBP/USD, and short USD/NOK, notes ANZ. "Figure 1 shows how G10 and Asian currencies have performed during the month of April over the 2000- 15 period

Although the commodity complex has been more stable recently and that has removed some downside pressure on the euro via the disinflation channel, we anticipate that other factors will soon come into play. First, the extent of dovish stance by the US