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Deutsche Bank has an interesting argument for why the Federal Reserve may not be able to raise interest rates at all this year.
In a note on Monday, Joe LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist, argues that the Fed may be unable to move because its policy meetings coincide with key events on the election calendar.
The Federal Reserve expects to raise its benchmark rate twice this year.
LaVorgna said that a rate hike in April is unlikely because of expectations for weak first-quarter growth.
In June, the Fed's hands may be tied for the same reason. Also, there's the British referendum on whether to remain in the European Union a week after the Fed meeting on June 23 that, combined with a rate hike, could spike the dollar.
Here's LaVorgna on the other meetings (emphasis added):