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Currency investors should consider buying EUR/CAD this week , advises Morgan Stanley in its weekly FX pick to clients. " Insurance against an early hike: As long as the markets have to deal with the prospect of the Fed hiking rates, the USD should

Although the Fed Chairman suggested that a rate hike in Sept remains an option market pricing discounts only a 40% probability. Just 15%of analysts forecast a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in a few weeks. We have checked expectations ahead of

In our view the Fed are trying to guide the market to increase pricing for a September hike, but rates markets remain reluctant to react and against this backdrop  our FX Momentum model  shows overall USD momentum now at multi-year lows

When the BoJ started Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), the Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the BoJ would achieve its 2% inflation target by doubling the size of its balance sheet. Currently the BoJ has nearly tripled its balance sheet

With volatility plumbing multi-decade lows, traders across all asset classes are starved for volatility, not just in equities and bonds, but also across FX crosses. There is no assurance that Yellen's Friday statement, which many say has been priced

This is The Economist (magazine) on machine learning; the article relates to its application to public policy, but its of interest to trading decisions too (or not?): Sendhil Mullainathan of Harvard University  ...  problem

The recent rally in the GBPUSD exchange rate is giving some the chance to press the sell button again say CitiFX. The call comes as the GBP/USD breaks above the 1.32 level once again and some analysts suggesting the British Pound will struggle to

That was fast. Yesterday I told you how a consortium of 15 Japanese banks had just signed up to implement new financial technology to clear and settle international financial transactions. This is a huge step. Right now, most international financial

EUR/USD – NEUTRAL BIAS – (1.1150-1.1450) The performance of the US dollar in the week ahead will be dictated by the market’s interpretation of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole. We believe that Fed Chair Yellen is unlikely to explicitly

Tough to see how the Fed could survive another financial crisis intact It's not surprising that the Fed is facing criticism as the economy stagnates. What's shocking where it's coming from and how quickly it's grown aggressive. It's like a

Lower USD, higher EUR: A weaker USD,  looser financial conditions and the Brexit risk event out of the way have meant that there are signs of businesses starting to grow around the world. We are not saying that all is rosy and that growth rates

Morgan Stanley: Yellen to disappoint USD bulls. Given the plethora of Fed commentary in recent weeks,and not much else going on,attention has turned squarely to Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow for any insight on the likelihood of a Fed rate

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speech highlights on August 26, 2016 at Jackson Hole Topic of the speech was The Fed's monetary policy toolkit Case for interest rate increase has strengthened in recent months Economyc nearing Fed's

Royal Bank of Scotland says it will charge some corporate customers for accepting their deposits — the first U.K. bank to impose so-called negative interest rates after the Bank of England slashed borrowing costs to spur investment. RBS, bailed out

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government plans to tell citizens to stockpile food and water in case of an attack or catastrophe, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday. Germany is

Michael Every, is head of financial markets research for Asia Pacific at Rabobank He has appeared on CNBC with a sobering assessment: The consequences of telling the market that hikes were off the table this year would be "quite shocking" and an

13 years on from Jackson Hole’s ‘idiot savant’ hubris, many years into a regime of QE that has singularly failed to lift either global growth rates or inflation, and with a rising number of central banks themselves suggesting that monetary policy

The ‘triumvirate’ of Dudley, Fischer and Yellen are usually regarded by the markets as setting the tone for FOMC debate. So the likelihood is that Yellen is set to echo these comments which could easily force a re-pricing of interest rate

Barclays believe Pound Sterling undervalued at current levels and they projected it to move higher against the Euro over coming months. The Pound recorded a fourth weekly loss gain against the Euro in the week ending 19th August. In fact, since mid

SD weakness rests on two pillars.  First , the carry trade pushing funds into higher-yielding environments.  Second,  real yield differentials working in favour of the EUR and the JPY, which could even push EURUSD to 1.18. The threat