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Research from Morgan Stanley USD looking south:  The Fed has little to gain by hiking rates early. Hence, we regard the recent rise in real US yields that has supported the 4% USD rally seen since May as unsustainable. Our long-held framework

The holiday season is in full swing and for some this may mean that markets will settle down as liquidity dries up in the coming weeks. Our evidence suggests that FX vol tends to go up in August, however, and data releases and events can trigger

It may be the most important FX cross, but the average EUR/USD level since the start of February 2015, after the ECB cut rates below zero, is 1.11, which is where it is as I write. The average real yield difference is 8bp narrower than current

Strategists at Morgan Stanley have told clients that they continue to see value in selling the British Pound against both the US Dollar and Euro. Pound to Euro Exchange Rate today: 1 GBP = 1.1829 EUR Euro to Pound Sterling Exchange Rate today: 1 EUR

I think it’s possible that the Fed will push rates below zero when the next recession arrives. I explained why a few months ago in my free weekly column, Thoughts from the Frontline , at Mauldin Economics. In that regard, something important happened

The dollar is set to fall 5 percent in the next few months, the Federal Reserve isn’t raising interest rates anytime soon and U.S. economic data is only going to get worse. That’s what Morgan Stanley chief global currency strategist Hans Redeker told

I’m watching the Trump phenomenon with some mix of horror and amusement, like I suspect most people are. I will say up front that I am no fan of Trump. I sincerely wish Gary Johnson would become president, having been a Libertarian long before it

Why voters are rejecting the economic elites. New York Times article spectacularly backfires The arrogance of an article in this weekend's New York Times on economics is astonishing. It sets out to ask an important question: Why Voters Don't Buy It

UPS was just the icing on the cake.  Capping off a week of gloomy commentary from American companies, the package-delivery giant — which arguably has a unique view into the global economy — said it too sees "head winds" in the second half

The British Pound is being driven almost exclusively by expectations for a policy announcement from the Bank of England at their August 4th meeting - but what should you expect? The British Pound has struck a sideways tone against the likes of the

Limited room of changing rate expectations should leave the single currency broadly range-bound.  This is especially true as the currency maintains relatively low level of sensitivity to risk sentiment for now. Regardless of inflation

Looking at the charts to begin with, the pound to euro has formed what is known as a triangle pattern on the four-hour chart (see chart below). The triangle is now complete having unwound the minimum five waves (a,b,c,d and e). It is therefore likely

The US dollar gained against all the major currencies over the past week. It also rose against many emerging market currencies. A notable exception was the Chinese yuan. The yuan rose before the weekend, extended its advancing streak to four

We saw more USD strength last week , which I think partly reflects lingering global growth concerns, due to Brexit and what not. I would not fight the USD now. Especially so, as with the recent few weeks of strong US data, we could still get the

Britain’s divorce from the European Union is not going to be easy given there is no precedent and no planning was done before the historic referendum result. A bit more than one month on, here’s what we know -- and what we still have to find out --

The Fed has released their FX report. Total daily volume $893.2 Volumes +10.0% since Oct 2015, mainly on swap turnover Biggest increase from USDJPY, +35%

A fundamental and technical note on the GBP/EUR conversion's outlook over the coming five days and why JP Morgan are forecasting 1.12 longer-term. The Pound to Euro exchange rate is today trading at 1.1963 - well within the ranges witnessed in the

BNPP: Long USD Vs GBP, EUR & JPY Into FOMC. Heading into the FOMC we hold three long USD recommendations: vs GBP through cash and EUR and JPY via options*. Our economists expect the statement to present a more upbeat economic assessment. They

Highlights of the FOMC decision on July 27, 2016 FOMC leaves fed funds rate in range from 0.25% to 0.50%, as expected Near term risks to economic outlook have diminished George dissented again in favor of a hike (after removing dissent last

Capital Economics The language added to today's statement that "near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished" is a clear indication that a September rate hike might be coming... Otherwise, the statement was predictably more upbeat