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Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their lowest levels since the start of September yesterday as the Bank of England signalled that we could see a further interest rate cut at the next meeting due to take place in November. Earlier this week UK

There is a very high degree of uncertainty over market developments in the week ahead, but a fresh surge in volatility is guaranteed. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday a few hours after the latest Bank of Japan

The UK and other EU governments will both face major difficulties finding a mutually-agreeable negotiating stance, increasing the risks of stalemate, which would further undermine confidence and intensify demands for stronger growth. German popular

UK data has surprised positively in recent weeks, but only in the context that markets were anticipating a contraction in Q3 activity. The actual results are probably closer to signalling a stalling to zero growth, still not a great scenario for the

The top G10 currencies over the last week are those with most yield, NZD, AUD, GBP, CAD and the only big change in the last 24 hours is the performance of the Yen (yet again). The real story though, is of money moving out G2, with EUR/USD somnolent

Weak US data...  Following the release of the US non-manufacturing ISM falling to its weakest level since 2010, US rate expectations and USD have fallen. However, the Exhibit below illustrates that rate expectations adjusted less than USD, which

ECB: Balancing act: We argue the ECB cannot keep its options open until December. With macro data still weak and high market expectations after a dovish July meeting,  we believe a commitment to continuing QE after March 2017 is the least

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius: BOTTOM LINE: San Francisco Fed President John Williams advocated for raising rates “sooner rather than later”, but offered no new clues on whether the committee will be ready to act on this month. His speech followed

JP Morgan: On Hold, QE Extension In December We no longer expect a rate cut and think that a decision to extend QE beyond March 2017 will be taken only in December. In addition, we think the staff will assume only a modest 0.2%-pt hit to the level of

The results of August's ISM surveys haven't been doing Fed hawks any favours. With the Manufacturing Index coming materially below expectations, today's reading on the services sector fell from 55.5 in July to 51.4 for August. That's the lowest print

Considering that speculative short positioning remains relatively elevated, further position squaring related upside cannot be excluded after data confirmed better business activity for the broader economy. Even if the BoE is likely to remain

Currency investors should consider buying GBP/USD this week,  advises Credit Suisse in its weekly FX pick to clients. " With a light data schedule for the US week ahead, we see potential for the GBP to rally the most among G10 currencies against

We think the EUR is likely to fall towards the end of the year and target a fall in EURUSD to 1.08. The principal driver of our view is our expectation of a 25bp rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which is not fully priced into markets. In

The currency to buy the Euro against is the Pound, at last for today.  MPC Governor Mark Carney survived his brush wit the Treasury Select Committee largely unscathed and was pretty clear that further easing is possible. We’ve priced in good

We do not expect the Bank of England (BoE) to announce any significant change to its monetary policy stance at its meeting next Thursday (15 September). The GBP continues to benefit from a squeeze in short positioning as UK data has not showed as

Markets are increasingly shifting focus from monetary to fiscal policy . Yet the currency impact of fiscal policy is typically more complex. We set up a simple framework to think about the relationship and apply it to the G4 currencies. The FX impact

EUR/USD – BULLISH BIAS – (1.1100-1.1500) Next week will see us enter into the FOMC black-out period ahead of the policy meeting on 21st September and hence the only developments that might alter the current low expectations of a rate hike would be a

Our friends at Fasanara Capital have released a new report, which in keeping with the Mayfair fund's recent trend of gloomy predictions, has looked beyond the current set of adverse socioeconomic development jarring Europe, and looks forward to the

The more that Federal Reserve officials speak, the more confused investors and economists become. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo repeated his cautious assessment of the economy during an interview Friday on CNBC television, while Boston Fed President

Former congressman Ron Paul is outspoken. When he retired from Congress, he called lawmakers psychopathic authoritarians to their faces . He’s also called Donald Trump an authoritarian  and asserted Hillary Clinton could have run as a Republican