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Sherif Hasan
Published post China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 (expected 49.2, prior 49.2)
This is the private survey manufacturing PMI. It's a different survey, different firms surveyed than in the official survey we got earlier. Tending to be smaller firms than those in the official survey. Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.6 expected 49.2, prior 49...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Australia election this weekend - here's the risk
The big risk is a bunch of politicians will win I guess. OK ... lets get on with it. Expectations are that the current government will win the election. But its not as if it'll be a landslide and the Opposition is in with a chance...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post "You've called the BOJ! Your call is important to us ...."
The Bank of Japan wants to hear your problems! Bloomberg report on enhanced communication activities at the bank: The BOJ has added its own surveys of investors and primary dealers since last year, on top of separate Ministry of Finance panel discussions with traders and economists...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post BOJ Q2 Tankan: Large Manufacturing Index: 6 (4 expected)
The Bank of Japan's Tankan Survey. Its a survey of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan. The BOJ Tankan is conducted quarterly...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Japan May CPI: -0.4 % y/y (expected -0.5%)
Japanese inflation data, National for May and Tokyo for June National CPI -0.4% y/y, expected is -0.5%, prior was -0.3% National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food, -0.4% expected is -0.4%, prior was -0.3...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Saudi energy minister says oil market still has more supply than demand
US energy secretary says agreed with Saudi energy minister that oil market still has more supply than demand (US energy secretary speaks after meeting with Saudi energy minister in Beijing) Says: Saudi energy minister sees oil market in balance towards the end of 2016 He expects oil market to be...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Australia data: Manufacturing PMI for June : 51.8
Australian Industry Group (AiG) Performance of Manufacturing Index for June comes in at 51.8 prior 51...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Forex technical analysis: What are the technical tea leaves saying in the GBPUSD
1.3500 was nice. 1.3219-22 eyed below The GBPUSD tumbled lower on the back of the BOE Carney comments and in the process solidified the 1.3500 level as a key line in the sand. The level was the low price going back to January 2009. The high price's today stalled at 1...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post The S&P 500 has nearly recouped the Brexit losses
Dovish BOE talk adds to gains The S&P 500 is up 22 points to 2092 after briefly trading in negative territory at the start of the day. The idea isn't that global growth will be any better. It's that central banks will never hike rates and will do whatever it takes to achieve 1-2% growth...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post ECB press officer denies QE problems report - Livesquawk
Apparently on social media Michael Steen the ECB press officer has apparently scotched the story. The euro's bounced but you know the saying, nothings official until it's been officially denied...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post What policies could the BOE let loose in August?
Here's some quick thoughts on what the BOE may choose to use Firstly, I'm not pulling a rate cut off the table but I think it's a low probability, just from assessing Carney's comments and tone...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post BOE will do its job no matter who is in power says Carney
Into the Q&A All MPC members are committed to discharging their duties whatever the Government Bank can react more rapidly than other institutions This meeting is part of our communication Bank can meet any time and make a decision...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Full speech from BOE's Mark Carney
Here's the speech link and the pertinent parts Here's the main important part of the speech. "The Committee will make an initial assessment on 14 July, and a full assessment complete with a new forecast will follow in the August Inflation Report...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Pound gets the rug pulled out as Carney tips action
GBPUSD to 1.3245 from 1.3425. EURGBP 0.8380 from 0.8275 He's waffling on now about the possible effects of Brexit on the economy and the BOE's role in getting through it. The seed is sown though. They'll talk in July and maybe act in August...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post BOE's Carney: Some monetary policy stimulus likely to be needed over summer
BOE's Carney impromptu speech Economic outlook worse MPC will make initial assessment at July 14th meeting and make a decision at August meeting Uncomfortable truth that the BOE cannot fully offset a large economic shock from leaving the EU BOE will hold ILTR repo operations weekly rather than mo...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Verbatim: What Theresa May said on a Brexit, an election and negotiations
Theresa May is the prohibitive favourite to be the next Prime Minister Even before Boris Johnson dropped out, Theresa May was the betting favourite. A poll put Johnson as the only person within striking distance. Now betting sites put her as a relative shoe-in...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post OPEC output rises to 32.82mbpd in June - Reuters
Another survey from Reuters June output up 250kbpd Output led by Nigeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE Higher output held back by lower production in Iraq and Venezuela The rally this year looks like it's taking a pause as we knock around between 46 & 51...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Canada April GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% expected
Canadian monthly GDP Prior was -0.2% Goods -0.1% Services +0.2% Canada is one of the few countries to report on GDP every month. This is the first gain after two straight months of declines...
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