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Sherif Hasan
Published post What changed in the FOMC dot plot and economic projections
How Fed estimates changed 2016 growth downgraded to 2.0% from 2.2% in the March projection 2017 growth downgraded to 2.0% from 2.1% It's officially a 2% economy (and the Fed has a history of overestimating) Unemployment forecasts for 2016 and 2017 unchanged...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged - highlights of June 15, 2016 statement
Highlights of the FOMC interest rate decision June 15, 2016 Rates left unchanged in 0.25% to 0.50% range Labor market slowed since April meeting despite economic pickup Expects labor market indicators 'will strengthen' Repeats that economy to warrant only gradual hikes...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post What's priced in for the Federal Reserve
No chance of a hike today but the odds rise in the year ahead The Fed doesn't like those numbers so low. My best guess is that the Fed is a bit hawkish to preserve the possibility of a June hike. The non-farm payrolls report looks like an outlier...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Here are the latest Fed forecasts, dots and statements
Where the Fed stands "Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative...
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Sherif Hasan
Previews of today's Federal Reserve decision from all the big names Deutsche Bank: Mixed Message...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post European stock market losses find a bottom
European stock market close 15 June 2016 FTSE +0.7% Cac +1.0% Dax +0.9% Ibex +1.5...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post ECB's Weidmann FX must not become an active policy instrument
ECB's Jens Weidmann speaks in Frankfurt We must give agreed stimulus time to show effects Doesn't see any signs that ECB's credibility has been hurt by low inflation Inflation target is appropriate Expansive policy is needed for the foreseeable future...
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Sherif Hasan
If there's one thing that's featured heavily over the past few years, it is Fed excuses not to do something Weather, housing, jobs, international markets, dog ate the dot plot, you name it and they've used it...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Scottish Brexit poll: 53% remain 32% leave
An Ipsos Mori poll run in Scotland by STV For crying out loud can no one get these polls right. The figures from Mori are 58% stay 33% leave...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post US MBA mortgage applications -2.4% vs 9.3% prior
US MBA mortgage market index week ending 10 June 2016 Mortgage index 507.7 vs 520.4 prior Purchase index 237.6 vs 249.9 prior Refi index 104404 vs 2070.8 30yr mortgage rate 3.79% vs 3.83% prior...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post FOMC Statement, Economic Projections & Press Conference
FOMC Statement and Economic Projections will take place today at 7.00pm BST, shortly followed by the Press Conference at 7.30pm BST...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post China M2 money supply May yy +11.8% vs +12.5% exp
Latest Chinese lending data out from the PBOC 15 June 2016 yuan lending yy +14.4% vs +14.2% exp new yuan loans 985.5bln yuan vs 750bln exp fx deposits $658bln vs 666.8bln end-April outstanding total social financing up 12.6% yy end-May...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post May 2016 UK labour market report: Claimant count -0.4k vs 0.0k exp
Details from the May 2016 UK labour market report 15 June 2016 Prior -2.4k. Revised to 6.4k. Apr ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 5.1% exp. Prior 5.1% Apr average weekly earnings 2.0% vs 1.7% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.0% Ex-bonus 2.3% vs 2.1% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.1%. Revised to 2.2...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Pound liking the labour data but sellers still lurking
Better than expected UK wages/jobs data sees GBP rally 15 June 2016 GBPUSD has been up to test the 1.4200-20 offers/res I highlighted but stalled at 1.4215 so far. Let's see if we get a second wave. Currently 1.4202. EURGBP had a look below 0.7900 again but has bids/support still lined up into 0...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Japan govmt. spokesman says there are volatile moves in financial markets
Japan's Deputy chief cabinet secretary Seko: Desirable for UK to stay in EU Government closely watching markets including impact from UK referendum No comment on specific FX levels related to Brexit vote There are volatile moves in financial markets...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Japan JGBs hit new record low yields, China onshore yuan to 5 year low
Just another day in Asia Japan: 20 year JGB to a record low yield, 0.145% 30 yr also, 0.215% 10 yr record low -0.185...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post More Brexit referendum implications ... Calling the SNB's bluff on CHF strength
From CitiFX Strategy, comments on the CHF and the referendum Calling SNB Bluff: Limited Scope To Respond To CHF Strength Before The Referendum - Citi Absent the upcoming referendum, this week's policy meeting would probably pass a nonevent...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Australia - Westpac Consumer Confidence for June -1.0% m/m (prior +8.5%)
Westpac Consumer Confidence for June Down 1% on the month to 102.2 Last month it had a good sized jump, up 8.5% to 103.2 OK ... more info... The survey was conducted last week. You may recall I was on holiday last week, so my infectious enthusiasm and cheerfulness was absent from the internets...
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Sherif Hasan
Published post Japan economy ... maybe not so bad after all. Watermelon sells for ¥500,000
Ya gotta love Japan. A black watermelon grown in Hokkaido sold for ¥500,000 It was the first auction for the year 260 Densuke watermelons were auctioned on Tuesday. Oh, that price was down from the all-time record of ¥650,000, set in 2008...
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Sherif Hasan
ADDED: Bloomberg reporting this poll result is Unconfirmed Bloomberg reporting. Nothing further at this stage. I checked out BMG's website and there is nothing further there either. It does appear that the poll was of people jumping out of airplanes though. So, that's good to...
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