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VaR Bands

This is an indicator for setting stop levels. It is based on the VaR criterion.

To coordinate the financial risks, it is necessary to quantify them. This can be done using the VaR criterion. This parameter is used by almost all banks to assess the financial risks (of course, they use more complicated formulas than those used in this indicator).

This indicator calculates to what level the price will not change for a certain period of time with a given probability. The probability is specified in the indicator settings. The following probabilities are calculated (parameter Veroyatnost): 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 99%. Also the time period for calculating the required period in candlesticks should be set

The best settings are obtained if you already have statistics of your system performance. Use the percent of profitable trades (this will be the probability) and the average trade time - it is the period (do not forget to convert this time into the number of candlesticks).

The indicator is drawn as two channels of the two lines - one channel line is above the price, the other one is below. Accordingly, to buy place a stop level at the lower line, to sell - at the upper one. Vice versa for the take profit level.

The indicator has only to inputs:

  • VarPeriod - time in candlesticks.
  • Veroyatnost - probability of take profit hit.

Good settings: VarPeriod=6, Veroyatnost=75%.

In the attached figure red line is used for stops, blue one - for take profit.

Suppose there is a level, from which we want to enter at a rollback. This is not important, it's just an example (any signal may be used). Set stops at the upper red line. Set take profit at the bottom blue line.

Maksym Mudrakov
2016.08.31 18:18 

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