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ZigZagProbabilities

This is an aggregator of several ZigZag levels predictions based on probability. It uses the same approach as another ZigZag-based prediction indicator - ZigZagProbability. But unlike ZigZagProbability, this indicator combines analysis of 5 zigzags with different ranges. For every zigzag, it processes the available history for calculating density distribution of the zigzag edges and conditional probability of their consecutive pairs. Then it sums up the probabilities of all noticeably price levels and thus estimates the most important points of future price movements without a bias that could be introduced by a voluntarily selected price range in a single instance of ZigZagProbability indicator.

The indicator displays up to 8 horizontal lines on price levels where future ZigZag extremum will most probably occur. The levels are shown using different width: the wider the level - the higher its probability. For the last bar the indicator does also show labels with exact probability values for every level. In addition, the indicator displays on the chart (in a specified corner) an overall decision about buy or sell condition, which is calculated as a ratio of all probabilities in the levels above and below current price. When the probability estimation is over 50%, the label is shown in blue (for buy) or red (for sell) colors. Otherwise the label is gray.

ZigZags themselves do not show up.

You may either trade by market orders using the decision provided, or place pending limit orders on the levels.

Parameters:

  • HistoryDepth - number of bars to use to gather statistics; default value - 5000;
  • ZigZagRange - the largest zigzag range (in points) to be passed as corresponding parameter to the HZZM indicator (used internally); default value - 0 means that indicator will autodetect overall range of current quotes and generate 5 appropriate custom ranges for every HZZM instance automatically; if a number 1000 or more entered, it is used as the largest range and other 4 smaller ranges are calculated from it by dividing it every time by 1.5;
  • Corner - a corner used to display the label with decision; default value - 3 (bottom right); other possible values: 0 - upper left corner; 1 - upper right corner; 2 - bottom left corner;
  • Offset - number of bars to shift processing to the left; this allows analyzing indicator performance on the history; default value - 0 - shows prediction on the latest bar;
  • Color - color for the levels;
  • Original - parameter passed "as is" to the HZZM indicator; it switches the zigzag mode from standard HZZ to modified HZZM algorithm; please, see HZZM description for details; default value - false;

As the resulting levels are combined from 5 zigzags, there are no distinctive singularity points in time, where all levels jump simultaneously from some old positions to new ones - this was true for single zigzag-based ZigZagProbability because its points correspond to the moments when the zigzag changes its direction. The levels of this indicator normally change smoothly, one by one, unless a very strong price move happens.

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Version 1.1 - 2014.08.19
Added 2 new modes, which can be enabled by corresponding parameters:
- SimpleProb - enable/disable simplified calculation of price probability; when true, only probability of a next zig-zag edge in dependence from a previous edge is counted, without unconditional probability of an edge of specific size; by default - false, meaning that total probability is used;
- TimeCorrection - enable/disable a special mode, when duration of an edge is used for correction of effective price length of the edge; by default - false;
Various instruments may require specific settings for efficiency.