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Sergiy Podolyak
1820
Sergiy Podolyak 2015.08.31 09:38 
What will be with Forex when (or "if") the really profitable expert ("Graal") wiil be revealed?

Under "revealed" I mean "will be available to everyone for reasonable price", for example in "Market" on MQL5 here.

Under "profitable" I understand "steadily profitable every quarter" at any broker at reasonable drawdown, without tricks with pipsing arbitrage. Reasonable dradowns can be received, by reducing the position size on each pair and trading on many pairs. Thus "really profitable" expert has to trade "on average profitably" on many currency pairs, on say 20-30 at the same time, instead to catch a 2-3 months' wave on one pair.

The results of it of this "awful event" for retail Forex:

First, credit leveradges will be sharply reduced to retail brokers: brokers usually receive a leverage no greater than 1:10... 1:50. And if a percent of profitable traders wiil rise from 1...3 to 10...30, the broker won't be able to manage small positions within his/her balance, and will put more often the cumulative position to big interbank. The problem of profitability of the broker can be solved if brokers will use this expert too - in the relations with their bank. The broker will earn profits not only on spread, but also on the forecast of the price.

Secondly, banks will start losing on forex at retail-brokers. It will be unusual and unpleasant for them. Now large banks are profitable by the means of spread, and also due to good-or-bad forecasting of the prices.  Some countermeasures from large banks are possible against retail Forex.

I suggest not to discuss a hypothesis "and the really profitable expert will be not revealed. No fools here!".
We suppose there is a fool.

What do you think about it?
Rinor Memeti
2683
Rinor Memeti 2015.08.31 12:59  
I think if this would happen the ea wpuld be profitable for a long time, till to many people are using it. Then it will not work anymore.
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