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Check out the new article: Determining Fair Exchange Rates Using PPP and IMF Data.
At some point, I realized I was spending more time searching for the "perfect" forecasting module than understanding what really drives exchange rates. So I asked myself a simple question: what if I put all those charts aside and tried to find the real value of a currency? Not the value the market happens to show at any given moment under the influence of emotion and speculation, but the one that follows from fundamental economic laws?
That question led me into several months of work. I started by studying purchasing power parity theory and ended up writing a full-fledged exchange rate analysis system in Python. This turned out to be much more interesting than any technical indicator.
Author: Yevgeniy Koshtenko