Discussing the article: "Data Science and ML (Part 45): Forex Time series forecasting using PROPHET by Facebook Model"

 

Check out the new article: Data Science and ML (Part 45): Forex Time series forecasting using PROPHET by Facebook Model.

The Prophet model, developed by Facebook, is a robust time series forecasting tool designed to capture trends, seasonality, and holiday effects with minimal manual tuning. It has been widely adopted for demand forecasting and business planning. In this article, we explore the effectiveness of Prophet in forecasting volatility in forex instruments, showcasing how it can be applied beyond traditional business use cases.

The Prophet model is an open-source time series forecasting tool developed by Meta (formerly Facebook). It's designed to provide accurate and user-friendly forecasts for business and analytical purposes, particularly for time series data with strong seasonality and trends.

This model was introduced by Facebook (S. J. Taylor & Letham, 2018), originally for forecasting daily data with weekly and yearly seasonality, plus holiday effects. It was later extended to cover more types of seasonal data. It works best with time series that have strong seasonality and several seasons of historical data.

Common terms:

  • Trend. The trend shows the tendency of the data to increase or decrease over a long period, and it filters out the seasonal variations. 
  • Seasonality. Seasonality is the variations that occur over a short period and is not prominent enough to be called a "trend". 


In this article, we are going to understand and implement this model given forex data and see how it can help us beat the market but, firstly, let's take a moment to understand this model in detail.

Author: Omega J Msigwa