neural network and inputs - page 23
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And trading against the trend is nonsense? But they trade without thinking about it, the main thing is to prove that they could do it... The main thing is to prove that you were able to enter the market on the "right pip" :)
And trading against the trend is nonsense? But they trade without thinking about it, the main thing is to prove that they could do it... "on the very pip" to enter the market :)
Not really. I used to trade like that at one time or another. Here's an example, price approaches a yearly high, a strong support or resistance level, etc. We open a position in the opposite direction and place a stoploss just behind that level. A significant level will allow us to place a very short stop loss, the triggering of which will not cause any harm to our deposit. And in general, in any case it is either good or not bad... I.e. I traded when it was possible to place a short stop, the direction could be said to be determined by the stop.
So? I open a position (prediction of rise or fall) and put a stop loss
And trading against the trend is nonsense? But they trade without thinking about it, the main thing is to prove that they could do it... "I was able to enter the market right on the pip :)
They do it. That's because many people are trying to go against the trend and enter the market "right on the peak". (People do not change - they have predicted and will continue to predict, trying to look ahead instead of looking under their feet. This gives a faint hope that we will not be left without a piece of bread, and on holidays, we can even count on butter.
IgorM: Imagine yes, they do - they teach how to participate in the process, i.e. to trade - they do not care which way the market moves, against the crowd or with the crowd, they are still 2 steps ahead of the crowd
+100% There is a gulf between this "participating in the process" and this "predicting" or "guessing". And sooner or later many come to understand this difference, it is a stage in trading. Everyone starts with predicting, the first question (the most unimportant and stupid) - where will the price go?
It does not really matter whether against the crowd or with it, you can go both ways. First the limits, then the stops - a double benefit.
Really, let's be specific, shall we?
Task one, simple) to predict tomorrow's closing price. Let's not delve into the depths of NS, let's not talk about what is more productive to predict the high or low, or even "chew" on econometrics - also omit, just about inputs, who would use what for such a task? What contains the grit of information about tomorrow's closing price? Generally speaking, it seems to me that everything is simple here - we take the last 5 to 10 bars, their High, Low, Open/Close, and then we try the first and the second differences, all sorts of ratios, increments, etc. In general, if anyone thinks otherwise, it will be interesting to listen.
The task of the second, more difficult and I'm on the subject of the day, or rather night). We want to predict what is "next", roughly speaking, a trend or flat (or volatility or "calm", for example)? Here I am in a puddle. It would seem that it is much easier. One does not need to know the price, not even the direction, but simply to predict the nature of the market. My gut tells me that I cannot do without indicators that I hate (at least they must be able to interpret correctly the status quo on history), but what to use, how to use them - can't you imagine? Do you have any ideas?
Maybe I do. No, really... how will you define volatility/still? I mean by what formula? C-O of a future candle (of any TF, whatever)? H-L? What formula will it be in general? That is, what are we going to predict?
Regarding trend/flat. Equation of trend is known - it is straight line y=kx+b, but it will hardly help in this form, a flat is an illusion (there are many of them on the graph, this is one of them), no one can provide equations of a flat or separate a flat from a trend in real time.
"No one can" must be taken to mean "I can't, which means (since no one is smarter than me) no one can".
So far off topic that it seems to have been forgotten altogether. It's an interesting topic...
so develop it.
The question is, what is the output? A trend-flat is a difficult concept to formalise. What then?
Well, develop it.
The question is, what is the output? A trend-flat is a difficult concept to formalise. What then?
Difficult does not mean impossible. Everything we can discern with our eyes can be formalised, it is a matter of principle. After all, in addition to "trend" and "flat", a third state "don't know" can be added, thus eliminating situations that are difficult to solve.