Catastrophe theory - page 3
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This is not what catastrophe theory describes at all. If you are trying to apply this theory in practice, you must have dependent and independent factors. Catastrophe theory explores the moments when a smooth change in the independent factors leads to an inadequately strong change in the dependent factors (catastrophe).
There is a world-renowned trader who has built his TS on this theory. He writes books and travels the world giving lectures - Nassim Taleb.
Though Black Swan is more philosophical, but Fooled by Random is fully dedicated to trading.
But he trades options on "rare events" - long wait.
Also, if I'm not mistaken, everyone who uses this theory in trading uses American type options trading.
This is a cry of the soul in an ideological vacuum. My acquaintance with the catastrophe theory ends with reading of scientifically popular book, which was read about 25 years ago, i.e. practically 0. The question for superprofies, is there any path leading to the positive expectation in this dense forest of knowledge. Well and as usual a kick in the right direction, if possible with references preferably at sausage level.
Not a super or even a pro can I?
"To be able to read a sliver of cotton correctly, you have to do the same thing with a sliver of...
the equity tape - stay away from it. Have a timetable with you and read the tape
and stay out of the influence of the brokerage and the rumors that always prevail.
always prevail. They confuse you and make you see things in the wrong light.
Gunn W. D. The truth about the quotation feed. Be sure to read it. Find the N difference, so to speak. From the modern market.
ivandurak:
Это крик души в идейном вакууме. _
Пока только мысли никакой конкретики. _
Предположим, что нормальное состояние для системы это флет ( определения тренда и флета намеренно не даю дабы не погрязнуть во флейме), предположим, что научились предсказывать точку, когда система из одного устойчивого состояния перейдет в другое, устанавливаем отложки на пробой, _
I understand from your registration date on the forum that you have been involved in system development and trading for at least 5 years. What does that tell you? That there is no vacuum, but something else - a huge number of ideas, working half-heartedly, taken from the pages of the Internet.
1. A normal price condition is neither a flat nor a trend. Any price condition is normal - both trend and flat, whatever they are.
2 It is a shame that you don't define trend and flat. Without these definitions, it is impossible to understand the market and create a normal system. Definitions should be clear, concise, understandable and mathematically sound.
3. There are as many flutes on the market as there are trends, i.e. the total distance that price passes in the flutes is equal to the total distance that price passes in the trends on a long history period.
This is why it is so difficult to build a system that works. Once you start trading trend systems - as you start to lose on the flotsam, with the flotsam you lose on the trends.
4. Predicting the transition point from one state to another is possible, but no system can make predictions with 100% accuracy.
1. A normal price condition is neither a flat nor a trend. Any price condition is normal - trend and flat, whatever they are.
2) It's a shame you don't give definitions of trend and flat. Without these definitions, it is impossible to understand the market and create a normal system. Definitions should be clear, concise, understandable and mathematically sound.
3. There is as much of a flat market as there is a trend, i.e. the total distance that price travels in a flat is equal to the total distance that price travels in trends over a long period of history.
there you go - concrete at last!
1. then what is the abnormal state of the price?
2. you, as a professional trader, of course, have created a normal TS. Give the definitions, only "clear, concise, understandable and mathematically sound".
3. this is news! show the calculations and statistics
2. it's a shame that you don't give definitions of trend and flat. Without these definitions it is impossible to understand the market and create a proper system. Definitions should be clear, concise, understandable and mathematically sound.
Well, here we are - concrete at last!
1. then what is the abnormal state of the price?
2. you, as a professional trader, of course, have created a normal TS. Give the definitions, only "clear, concise, understandable and mathematically sound".
3. this is news! show the calculations and statistics
2. I do not create systems myself, but participate in their creation together with other traders. If I give clear, precise and understandable definitions of trends and flotsam on this forum, then _, you know what will start, for many, many pages. Because everyone has a different vision. And behind these visions are months and even years of hard work (I will not hesitate to use this phrase).
3. There will be no calculations or statistics. Behind them are months of work by other traders. Give definitions and you will see for yourself.
Then there are no flutes at all, but only multiple trends at different sampling frequencies, it is possible to sum up the trends and probably in some cases the superposition of trends (or sums) can result in something. the same flute is the sum of trends that are opposite in sign.
Let's start by defining a flat, for example this. On a chart, look for sections of length not less than N bars and not more than M bars, for which the angle of linear regression is not more than (let it be until degrees). Therefore transition between flat areas will be a trend.
Thus, the task is reduced to identifying the moment of transition from one flat to another, like the catastrophe theory describes exactly that if we believe Wikipedia.
:)
1. When a trader comes to the market, does he trade with the seller? No. This is not a market. So, a broker is a shop, not a flea market. It's your right to buy or not. But, do not discuss the price of goods with the cashier or seller.
2. I do not create systems myself, but participate in their creation together with other traders. If I give clear, precise and understandable definitions of trends and flops in this forum, then _, you know what will start, for many, many pages. Because everyone has a different vision. And behind these visions are months and even years of hard work (I will not hesitate to use this phrase).
3. There will be no calculations or statistics. Behind them are months of work by other traders. Give definitions and you will see for yourself.
1. if all prices in the market are normal, then what is an abnormal price state?
2. don't be afraid, even if it starts, the main thing is that it's on topic! Be brave! Let's discuss your vision - "crisp, clear, understandable and mathematically sound". All the more so, no one has shown such a thing here yet.
3. If there is no statistics - "There isas much of a flat on the market as there is a trend, i.e. the total distance that price goes in a flat is equal to the total distance that price goes in trends over a long period of history" we will take it as a joke.