[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts & Consequences (Episode 12: February 2012) - page 539
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Stranger, if this hour closes below the previous one - what happens?
The end of the world.
Currency pairs, Dow Jones, 20-24.02.12
20.02.2012 15:25
EUR/USD Pair
1st support level - 1.2974 /secondary/
1st resistance level - 1.3322 /moderate/
2nd support level - 1.2931 /secondary/
2nd resistance level - 1.3436 /secondary/
The EUR/USD is likely to continue consolidation this week as it remains below the two-month high of 1.3322 reached on February 9. The daily chart is giving mixed signals: The MACD indicator is showing a decline, but the stochastic is signaling an upside. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2974. A break of this level will target the pair to the low of 1.2931 on January 25 and then to the low of 1.2854 on January 23. In case of a further decline, the pair will target the low of 1.2732 on January 18 and then the low of 1.2624 on January 16. But a rise above the February 9 high of 1.3322, which is currently near the 100-day moving average, would restore the pair's short-term positive prospects and target 1.3436, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave of decline from the October 27 high of 1.4248 to the January 16 low of 1.2624. Further upside would target the pair at the December 8 high of 1.3459 followed by the December 2 reaction high of 1.3548. The pair's medium-term prospects are positive as the MACD indicator and the stochastic on the weekly chart are pointing upwards. In the coming weeks, the pair may rise to the 200-day moving average, which is now at 1.3747. However, a fall below 1.2624 would turn the pair's medium-term prospects into negative territory and target the reaction low of 1.2588, reached on August 24, 2010. A break-down of this level will open the way down to the psychologically important 1.2000 and then to the low of 1.1875, reached on June 7, 2010.
do you think this can be trusted?
I just don't know if i should go with this one!
Or not to read them at all?
End of the world
All the basic things as I subjectively see them, I have already laid out for you. So all that remains is to wait for the realisation of these views of mine, assuming, of course, that I am not wrong. Not wrong so far. So far it is obvious that others were wrong, UBS, for example, who expected that above 1.3045-55 EuR would not rise any more. Or Morgans Stanley, what the hell, how much blood they drank, just the positions on the yen and sterling alone. On Friday, smart guys like Dow's chief European analyst Bray were saying that the pound has no room to rise. Well, there's the nearest place at 1.5950 or even 1.6040 like. It's all there, and there's a lot more out there. It's just that as a leading daily indicator it's better to look at the euras relative to N2. I think it's more likely to go above N2 (just like it did with N1 and many, many times before) than it will work a big, spread-out H&S. By the way, what does it unfold other than itself and a small rise from 1.1872? On the day near my target at 1.3332 there will be a divergence, or rather, it is likely, everything will depend on the dynamics of the passing of 1.33 usd. If the day closes above 1.35, for instance, even if there is a divergence, who will play it down? Few will be willing bears in search of honey in such a market. The bears have started to get killed here, no matter how small and silly they are, and up to the size of UBS. Anyway, the target was and still is 1.3332, and let it come there first - and it will come! - and we will see there. The yen left early, but apart from the nervous winter spent in its company, there was and is a factor of repatriation of the yen, albeit hypothetical. Realistically, exporters will find an opportunity to sell off the aptics, and where to catch the very top is always an interesting question. Maybe 80.80 yen? I don't think it will make it. Smarties say 80.40 yen, I think it will be higher. Here's a 40-point fork at a glance, no charts, just an opinion, just from memory from experience. Like 80.67 and - the exporters will sell out. Japan may have another record deficit in January, but this is the third time, they will not play much if at all. In addition, although S&P left the rating untouched, the outlook remains negative as well, and they also threaten the government debt trajectory. That's not news either, they won't play. Today they won't. However, the time is coming when the Japanese debt will start to play strongly. The market will still get to the Japanese yield, I think, and that will be a big reason for the dollar to go back above 100, or just to 100 yen, doesn't matter yet. That's basically it, nothing more to say.
The euro rose against the dollar amid speculation that European finance ministers will meet today to resolve outstanding disagreements over the next tranche of financial aid to Greece. The meeting of EU finance ministers is scheduled to start at 13:00 GMT.
Expectations regarding the decision to provide financial assistance to Greece also provide support to European stock markets, which in turn negatively affects the dollar, which is under pressure against major currencies.Also positive for stock markets is a decision of the People's Bank of China to reduce by 50 basis points the reserve requirements for Chinese banks, or the percentage of deposits that banks should hold as a reserve and not use for lending.
It is worth noting that the US financial markets will be closed today due to Presidents' Day celebrations. Against this backdrop, trading volume in the market will be reduced, which could cause a significant increase in trading volatility.
Currency pairs, Dow Jones, 20-24.02.12
20.02.2012 15:25
EUR/USD
1st support level - 1.2974 /second resistance level/
1st resistance level - 1.3322 /moderate/
2nd support level - 1.2931 /secondary/
2nd resistance level - 1.3436 /secondary/
The euro/dollar pair is likely to continue consolidating this week as it remains below the two-month high of 1.3322 reached on February 9. The daily chart is giving mixed signals with the MACD indicator indicating a decline, but the stochastic has started to signal an increase. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2974. A break of this level will target the pair to the low of 1.2931 on January 25 and then to the low of 1.2854 on January 23. In case of a further decline, the pair will target the low of 1.2732 on January 18 and then the low of 1.2624 on January 16. But a rise above the February 9 high of 1.3322, which is currently near the 100-day moving average, would restore the pair's short-term positive prospects and target 1.3436, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave of decline from the October 27 high of 1.4248 to the January 16 low of 1.2624. Further upside would target the pair at the December 8 high of 1.3459 followed by the December 2 reaction high of 1.3548. The pair's medium-term prospects are positive as the MACD indicator and the stochastic on the weekly chart are pointing upwards. In the coming weeks, the pair may rise to the 200-day moving average, which is now at 1.3747. However, a fall below 1.2624 would turn the pair's medium-term prospects into negative territory and target the reaction low of 1.2588, reached on August 24, 2010. A break-down of this level will open the way down to the psychologically important 1.2000 and then to the low of 1.1875, reached on June 7, 2010.
Do you think this is believable?
I just don't know if i should rely on these forecasts!
Or do not read them at all?
To continue the bulls now need to be able to consolidate above the 1.3200 level, above which while price is still trading. Otherwise I expect price to return to the 1.3120-1.3140 area. Technically on H4 rising, on H1 indicators mark sideways for the nearest time, which I do not rule out as the foundation is not particularly important expected today. The trading tactics for today are as follows. I will consider selling below level 1.3190 target 1.3140, further probability small correction is high. Small buying I will consider above 1.3240 target 1.3280, above go will not easy. For now, I am more inclined in the first half of the day to narrow trading range of 1.3190-1.3240.
i feel the same shit
Currency pairs, Dow Jones, 20-24.02.12
20.02.2012 15:25
EUR/USD
1st support level - 1.2974 /second resistance level/
1st resistance level - 1.3322 /moderate/
2nd support level - 1.2931 /secondary/
2nd resistance level - 1.3436 /secondary/
The euro/dollar pair is likely to continue consolidating this week as it remains below the two-month high of 1.3322 reached on February 9. The daily chart is giving mixed signals with the MACD indicator indicating a decline, but the stochastic has started to signal an increase. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2974. A break of this level will target the pair to the low of 1.2931 on January 25 and then to the low of 1.2854 on January 23. In case of a further decline, the pair will target the low of 1.2732 on January 18 and then the low of 1.2624 on January 16. But a rise above the February 9 high of 1.3322, which is currently near the 100-day moving average, would restore the pair's short-term positive prospects and target 1.3436, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave of decline from the October 27 high of 1.4248 to the January 16 low of 1.2624. Further upside would target the pair at the December 8 high of 1.3459 followed by the December 2 reaction high of 1.3548. The pair's medium-term prospects are positive as the MACD indicator and the stochastic on the weekly chart are pointing upwards. In the coming weeks, the pair may rise to the 200-day moving average, which is now at 1.3747. However, a fall below 1.2624 would turn the pair's medium-term prospects into negative territory and target the reaction low of 1.2588, reached on August 24, 2010. A break-down of this level will open the way down to the psychologically important 1.2000 and then to the low of 1.1875, reached on June 7, 2010.
Do you think this is believable?
I just don't know if i should rely on these forecasts!
Or not to read them at all?
I don't like the situation, you can smoke 157p for a whole week now.