EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 807
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In fact, I read a couple of weeks ago that a new wave of crisis was brewing in the US....
The USmacroeconomic indicators, with positive results, are false (fictitious)...I was doing the math myself and couldn't understand where, out of the blue, "such beauty" in the indicators had formed.... They used to be at least corrected, revised, but now all significant macroeconomic indicators look implausible...
Now there is a slight correction after which we will go up to 1.4700.
Possible course movements:
Yes, the man on the programme on the first "However" at the end of last year was talking about false positive reports, and no one believes him. However
The way out for America is to sell part of the state to China, they have just had enough of them, a little bit of land to the Japanese, they have an ecological catastrophe. With the proceeds to pay out the debts and learn from our people how to live without money, not how they can not afford it now. :)))
Trichet, in an interview with two Finnish publications, said that he sees no significant secondary signs of inflation, leading investors to close long positions on the euro, even though many believe that the dollar will continue to remain under pressure in light of the Fed's monetary policy outlook, which will probably not rush to raise interest rates yet.
....
"The G7 communiqué immediately after the dollar index fell to a record low in March 2008 said the G7 countries were concerned about currency movements. The US does not necessarily want a cheap dollar against the euro or the yen. Their target is China. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are moves of an international nature in the market (to curb the fall of the dollar," the expert added.
....
...The US currency will continue to remain on the outs, given the fact that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to roll back its ultra-loose monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its main refinancing rate in the 0-0.25% range at Wednesday's meeting, while sticking to its quantitative easing plan to complete its $600bn bond-buying programme in June.
The main focus, however, will be on the speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke - the first scheduled speech by a central bank governor after a meeting in the Fed's 97-year history.
Scotia Capital currency strategists note that potentially the Fed chief has something to say to give a positive boost to the US currency. In their view, we should pay attention to the central bank's forecasts, especially on inflation.
Nevertheless, experts do not think that the Fed can move away from its overly soft monetary policy, especially given the abundance of peace-loving comments from the central bank's leadership over the past few weeks.
According to Scotia Capital, interest rates in the United States will remain at record lows between 0% and 0.25% through the first quarter of 2012. Economists expect the US currency to fall to $1.50 per euro.
Important trading levels for EUR/USD
$1.4750 intermediate offers
$1.4720/25 minor offers
$1.4685/700 strong offers to barrier $1.4700/$1.4686 technical level
$1.4660 intermediate offers approaching/stops
$1.4653 intraday European high (new 2011 high), Asia $1.4588
$1.4615 ***current level
$1.4605/00 intermediate demand / large option expiry $1.4600
$1.4585/80 intermediate demand / stops
$1.4550 intermediate demand
$1.4510/00 intermediate demand/$1.4500 option expiry
$1.4494 intraday Asian low
margaret