EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 895

[margaret]

Global oil prices collapsed by almost 9% in Thursday's trading. As a result, WTI crude fell below the psychologically important mark of $100 per barrel. The collapse in the global market of "black gold" occurred amid the news from the United States, signalling high unemployment in the country, as well as amid investor concerns about the prospects for increased demand for fuel from Americans. Oil prices tried to return to growth on Friday morning, but failed to do so. Closer to noon the markets saw a continuation of the drop in oil quotations. Experts warn that this week's drop in fuel prices could be the biggest in 12 months.

[margaret]

Societe Generale has "reluctantly" revised up its forecasts for the ECB's main interest rate after Bank Chief Jean-Claude Trichet did not utter the coveted words of "high vigilance" at yesterday's press conference. SocGen analysts now expect a 25bp rate hike in July, then October and January, thus shifting the whole cycle one month later.

Societe Generale also noted that there is a new phrase in the ECB lexicon "monitor very closely" versus just "monitor closely", which could imply a rate hike at the earliest in two months. At the same time, analysts believe that members of the ECB's governing council could raise rates as early as June if there are signs that recent forecasts by Bank staff are coming true.

[margaret]

Many economists believe that the strong euro largely contributed to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's decision not to raise rates in June.

The euro has appreciated by almost 9% against the dollar this year amid a growing divergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe. Recall that ECB has already started to raise rates while Fed is still hesitant to do so. In his speech yesterday Trichet strongly disappointed investors who were expecting a rate hike in the next month, noting that the authorities are very concerned about the growth of the single European currency.

"The recent jump in the euro is one of the factors that contributed to the rate decision being delayed until July," suggested Holger Schmieding, senior economist at Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London.

While the strong euro is helping the ECB curb inflation, it also threatens the region's economic growth, especially in debtor nations such as Ireland and Portugal, which rely heavily on exports during a period of austerity.

[seolink74]

Alternatively, rebound from 1.43625 On H4 38 Fibo On W Tenkan line Sen

Second option is a return to the broken high on W to 142910

[evgen157]

margaret:

Thanks for the brevity and promptness....))) And yet foundation is more important in the 4th and 2nd wave than technique!!!!!!!!!

[Byrber]

Euro continues to fall on news that Greece may leave the eurozone - so we go further down

[Tantrik]

Evgen157:
Thanks for the brevity and promptness....))) And yet the foundation is more important on the 4th and 2nd wave than the technique!!!!!!!!!

The eu has failed everywhere else in other pairs on the quid the next target is 1.4180. Now need to get the foundations in place for the technique.

[odiseiff]

Tantrik:

The eu has failed everywhere else in other pairs on the quid the next target is 1.4180. Now we need to get the foundations in place for the technique.

it has always been driven by the technique .... only not everyone understands it

[Alexander Mostovnek]

Evra chose to go green.(https://c.mql4.com/forum/2011/05/H1_05_1.jpg)

So far such thoughts....

[[Deleted]]

On the euro to the dollar as well