THE "GRAIL" EXISTS!!! - page 14
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Paul the octopus and probability theory
If we assume that the experiment with predictions was performed cleanly, without interference of "human factor", then the probability that the octopus will get into one or another basket is equal 1/2. Accordingly, the probability of guessing the results of all 8 matches Paul before the World Cup 2010, was 1/28 = 1/256 ≈ 0.39% or 1 hit per 255 misses.
The probability of Paul's guessing 12 matches out of 14 is equal to the probability of getting 12 heads or tails on the flip of a coin 14 times and is 0.5554% or 1 in 180
Paul the octopus and probability theory
If we assume that the experiment with predictions was performed cleanly, without interference of "human factor", then the probability that the octopus will get into this or that basket is equal 1/2. Accordingly, the probability of guessing the results of all 8 matches Paul before the World Cup 2010, was 1/28 = 1/256 ≈ 0.39% or 1 hit per 255 misses.
The probability of Paul's guessing 12 matches out of 14 is equal to the probability of getting 12 heads or tails if the coin is tossed 14 times and is 0.5554% or 1 in 180
The statement is incorrect, because the results of the matches are not 50% / 50%. Favorites are more likely to win than underdogs (bookmakers pay pennies for favorites' wins, vs. rubles). Note: A favourite is a team which is placed higher in the standings than the underdog. For this reason it is much easier to pick a few wins in a row by the favourites than it is to pick one by the underdogs.
It is possible that the owners of the octopus nostradamus simply smeared the cards (or whatever it was) with the names of the favourites with something tasty and the outsiders with something nasty.
The statement is incorrect, as match results are not 50% / 50%. Favorites are more likely to win than underdogs (bookmakers pay pennies for favourites' wins, against the ruble). Note: A favorite is a team which is placed higher in the standings than the underdog. For this reason guessing a few wins in a row by the favourites is much easier than showing the same trick on the underdogs.
It's possible that the owners of the octopus nostradamus simply smeared the cards with the names of the favourites and the outsiders with some nasty stuff.
Moose has predicted a German defeat to Serbia. Serbia the favourite and Germany the underdog?
Octopus predicted the defeat of the Germans against Serbia. Serbia is the favourite and Germany the underdog?
Are there really no such things as a done deal? Don't the Germans want to earn money for the Serbs kicking a ball into their net? They are human beings too, despite the fact that they are descended from fascists (although it is more likely that they are descended from our fathers and grandfathers).
The owners of the octopus could also make a mistake and smear shit on the wrong card. They are humans too, because they are descended from monkeys, so they are sometimes mistaken.
A two-way! The psychic predicted and the octopus was smeared with caviar, wasn't he auctioned off?
Are there really no such things as a done deal? Don't the Germans want to earn money for the Serbs kicking a ball into their net? They are human beings too, although they are descended from fascists (although it is more likely that from our fathers and grandfathers).
The owners of the octopus could also make a mistake and smear shit on the wrong card. They are also human because they are descended from monkeys, so sometimes they make mistakes.
Who didn't sell at the auction? The psychic or the octopus?Guys, the full moon is long over and you're all raging about it. That's enough, for fuck's sake.
Once again, all the masterpieces (spiders) have gone to hell... :((
Grams have no conscience ))