What is it? - page 18
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Да Вы батенька прямо академик Лысенко :) . Вы всерьёз полагаете что выбрасывая по два орла имеете шансы после третьих бросков иметь среднее 1,5 по этим сериям? После третьего броска у Вас будет либо 2 орла, либо 3. Среднее по таким сериям будет 2.5.
Вам что, никто не объяснял никогда, что теория вероятностей это как раз наука о том, почему 50/50 если мы же видим, что 100% орёл?
Не бойтесь, сегодняшняя лотерея не отменит ваш выигрыш во вчерашней. И не надейтесь что она отменит мой вчерашний выигрыш :).
The Wisest. Don't delude the youngsters.
The average on three throws is by no means a mathematical expectation. ;)
Sorento писал(а) >>
The average on 3 throws is certainly not the expectation. ;)
Read again what I wrote. The average for such series is 2.5. And don't start a flurry.
Как у Вас получилось МО=1100 не понимаю ((
После первой серии у Вас уже состоялись 600 событий. Матожидание для следующей серии - 500. 600 + 500 = 1100.
P.S. Понимаете, после того как Вы выиграли в лотерею, Вам уже наплевать какая у этого была вероятность.
Oh, my good man!
Remember your own work better. you MO explained it!
And be careful with the terms.
That goes for flooding as well.
Любезный!
Вспомните лучше собственное творчество. вы МО объясняли!
И в терминах поосторожней.
Это и флуда касается.
The AM of what? What is the value?
Do you even realise that there is no MO at all? There is a MO of specific values.
However, I am not surprised that you have confused the MO of the number of eagles in a series of three throws, assuming that the first two are eagles, with the MO of the number of reds in a series of 2000 throws, assuming that after the first thousand there are 600.
Have you tried running for chief of the Michurins? You would have a good chance with the real Michurinians.
P.S. Hint: The first value has an expectation of 2.5, the second has 1100.
Да, верно, я спутал насчёт n, правильно корень из n. Я не знаю о чём вы говорите, но в примере lasso речь идёт именно о процессе :).
Ошибка у него есть, матожидание после второй серии будет не 1000 на 1000 а 1100 на 900. Он также похоже путает вероятность получения 1000 после 2000 испытаний и полную вероятность двух маловероятных серий по 1000 испытаний подряд ( А1 && В2 ).
P.S.
После 2-ой серии n = 2000 А3 = А1 && А2 = {(600К, 400Ч в серии 1) И (600К, 400Ч в серии 2)}.............................. .............................................................
..................................................................................... МО=1100 Дисп= 2000*0,5*0,5 СКО=22,36 3*СКО = 67,08 Отклонение(A3)=(1200-1100)/22,36=4,47
Sir!
Which one of us is demonstrably confused?
Do you grasp the difference between average and ME?
Or are you used to being clever? Labeling?
Вы разницу между средним и МО улавливаете?
Let's go to textbooks. For such simple things, though, wikipedia will do.
Вы разницу между средним и МО улавливаете?
Candid wrote :>>
Go to textbooks. For such simple things, though, wikipedia will do.
A preaching ignoramus. And a boor. >> Nice.
But your ramblings will allow me to screen your posts, and on other threads too.
Thank you for revealing facets of your knowledge.
;)
I don't like to answer "you're a fool", but in this case it's my particular pleasure to answer: I hear from a boor. :)
You see, when you try to assess your opponent's level, you assess either his level or your ceiling. And you shouldn't confuse one with the other.
Still, for completeness of diagnosis I will give a link to the article about MO on wikipedia
P.S. If it turns out to be too much text, here is a quote: Mathematical expectation - the concept of the mean value of a random variable in probability theory
Still, to complete the diagnosis, I'll link to the MO article on wikipedia
P.S. If it turns out to be too much text, here is a quote: The mathematical expectation is the concept of the mean value of a random variable in probability theory.
The above quote is not the definition of ME. The definition of expectation itself is as follows.
ME is an expected value. In other words, it is what we expect the value of frequency of occurrence we expect from a random variable in the ideal behaviour (distribution).
And it does not depend on the results of specific (local) series of events.
MO is assumed: a) based on physical properties of the object, e.g. a regular cube p=1/6 MO=n*p
Or it is determined: b) by experience. For example, We made 50 series of 1000 tests in each series. From the values obtained in each series you find the average value.
After the first series you have already had 600 events. Expectation for the next series is 500. 600 + 500 = 1100.
You didn't calculate mathematical Expected, but some mix of Mat.Occurrence (600) + ME from the second series of 1000 events (500).
.......
In fact in the first series of 1000 we expected 500 and got 600. So what can you do? The magnitude is random after all!!! No one to complain.
In the second series of 1000 we again expected 500 (as the MO is this CB ), and got 600 again. Again, there is no one to complain. (Well, if only Matematu....).
And another observer (parallel to the first one) in the same period expected 1000 red events for 2000 (MO is again 1000) and 1200 "Red" events occurred.
.......
I was basing this on centuries and many thousands of observations of the roulette wheel, and the assumption that the roulette table and wheel are perfectly manufactured and balanced. There are no zeros on my tape measure (so that we don't get even more lost). 36 holes. 18 red. 18 black. i.e. pure 0.5 on 0.5.