Why is the normal distribution not normal? - page 22
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You don't understand that the optimal number of points per month does not depend on the size of the month.
What is the optimal number of points for? There is a system, it works and generates income. What about optimality?
As for the time in the analysis, it works not only because of volumes and volatility. I have such systems that have been working for several years. And the volatility and volume approaches do not give the required performance for these systems.
A speculative gain is someone else's loss or lost profit. Many participants focus their decisions on run times, maximum position holding times, closing certain sessions, standard price presentation, etc. Yes everyone is time oriented. Banks, as most complex trades with clients have quite specific time frames, they have reporting periods, etc. Funds as they report returns for specific periods. Exchanges and many instruments traded on them (e.g. futures or options) have a calendar reference in circulation and expiry. There are tax reporting periods for all of them, the value of some taxes depends on the calendar moment of taking profit. There are many things related to astronomical times that most participants have to take into account. It means that speculators, who want to earn money at the expense of the others, have to take it into account.
Avals, what you say is true for the Stock Market.
In the forex market there are banking machines working around the clock, whose main task is to stabilise the exchange rate of the national currency. They do it according to known algorithms and closely monitor the market efficiency. Therefore, someone's earnings are a foam on the sea.
Neutron, at least one example where the estimation of the optimal number of points depends on time.
Avals, with the approach "there is a stable profit, why bother" you can forget about self-development and improvement at all. But if you want to increase the efficiency of the system, you have to take into account other considerations.
Avals, what you say is true for the Stock Market.
In the forex market there are banking machines working around the clock, whose main task is to stabilise the exchange rate of the national currency. They do it according to known algorithms and closely monitor the market efficiency. Therefore, someone's earnings are a foam on the sea.
You should not lump everyone into the same category. Different interests and FX is quite speculative. Somewhere there was a link to a detailed study, I'll look for it if I need to.
Exactly on FX the link to astronomical time is very important. I'm not just talking about theory, but because I work with it and know people who pay much attention to it. I do not know exactly why certain things related to time work, only speculations. But it's not just a change of activity, although that may be the basis. There is, for example, a clear link to the closure of certain periods and more. This is something really worth digging into. Not to ignore based on others' or your own stereotypes.
Neutron, at least one example where the estimation of the optimal number of points depends on time.
I can only show it mathematically, because there is no way to present two counts "with" and "without".
On the other hand, mathematics, is only a formalisation of the logical construction I have already voiced above... It will not add anything new to the understanding.
Avals, with the "there is a steady profit, why bother" approach, you can forget about self-development and improvement altogether. But if you still want to increase the efficiency of the system, you have to start from other considerations.
I'm constantly looking for and testing new ideas in different markets. For FX, most of the successful intraday ideas that I have tested are related to time.
So what I found, I found. We strive for the best, but we trade with what we have. I do not care about perfect profitability and profitability of other traders.
In my graph, the horizontal axis is TF derived from minutiae using the following algorithm: TF1 a(n)-a(n+1), TF2 a(n)-a(n+2),...,TFk a(n)-a(n+k). So, colleague, we are doing exactly what you advise.
Here is a graph of the distribution a(n)-a(n+1)
And this is the same TF, but a(n)-a(n+10).
Much better, isn't it?
I'm not talking about generation of new TFs but taking increments not with the previous bar but, for example, with the tenth one.
x1=a(0)-a(10); x2=a(1)-a(11); x3=a(2)-a(12)........
If I'm stupid, tell me. I'll walk away in shame...
I have a question - is it possible to translate the price into the horizontal plane in this way? In order to then forecast the price trend based on this data. Prediction is possible based on the figure above - the data is a broken curve - these are random variables.
With such conceptual differences, even the goals are different.
All the same EA, the optimal approach is many times small.
to Neutron, Avals
You guys should have taken a look at this advertised "Expert Advisor". It is such a child's calculator that looks into the future and calculates how many pips you could earn if you make trades on zigzag peaks. Hence the "genius" idea that trading on the zigzag with spread+1 parameter is optimal.
Looking at this achievement, one can understand that getch understands optimality as an efficiency, i.e. the percentage that could be earned compared with the maximum that his calculator gives. Obviously, one cannot earn more than that in principle.
And you're talking about real EAs, for which the KPI is a few percent at best, and that's not how you've set the task. Obviously you have not read much fiction in your childhood. :-)))