EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 01.02 - 08.02: Total Bearish with Possible Ranging; Monthly Breakdown Continuing - page 2
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Press review
newdigital, 2015.02.05 05:27
EUR/USD Drops Below 1.1350 on Renewed Greece Worries (based on marketpulse article)
The euro took a spill early on Thursday after the European Central Bank said it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral for its liquidity operations, dealing a blow to Athens which is seeking debt relief from euro zone lenders.
The common currency last traded at $1.1331, having fallen as far as $1.1315. It has completely reversed a short-covering rally that lifted it to $1.1534 on Tuesday.
It shed a full cent after the ECB surprised markets late on Wednesday by announcing it would reimpose minimum credit rating requirements for Greek bonds, effectively shifting the burden on to the Greek central bank to finance its lenders.
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Press review
newdigital, 2015.02.05 16:30
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further Euro Gains Expected (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro pulled back after rebounding against the US Dollar as expected following the formation of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 1.1318, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1.1185. Alternatively, a push below the February 3 high at 1.1533 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.1659.
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newdigital, 2015.02.06 10:57
Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
A 230K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by faster wage growth may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a short-term selloff in EUR/USD as it boosts expectations of seeing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) normalize monetary policy in mid-2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, a further improvement in labor dynamics may put increased pressure on the Fed to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner-rather-than-later, but the subdued outlook for inflation may prompt the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle as price/wage growth remains weak.
However, the rise in planned job-cuts paired with the slowdown in private-sector consumption may generate a weaker-than-expected NFP print, and a dismal employment report may generate a larger correction in EUR/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Job/Wage Growth Exceeds Market Expectations
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Report Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as the RSI retains the downward trend carried over from back in October 2013.
- Interim Resistance: 1.1600 pivot to 1.6110 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.1300 (161.8% expansion) to 1.1310 (100% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
EURUSD M5: 46 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) beat market forecasts as the economy added 252K jobs in December following an upwardly revised 353K expansion the month prior. At the same time, the unemployment rate narrowed more-than-expected to an annualized 5.6% to mark the lowest reading since August 2008. However, Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly slowed to 1.7% during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.2% print, and the weakening outlook for inflation may push the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for price growth. Nevertheless, the initial bullish reaction in the greenback was short-lived as EUR/USD worked its way back above the 1.1800 handle, with the pair ending the day at 1.1839.
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.06
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EURUSD M5: 124 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event