The best NEW ideas are well forgotten OLD ones !!!! Super money management - will it pull out any unstable trading system?
The idea is great. But.
1) Suitable for fixed lot trading.
2) The muving on the balance, not much different from the muving on the price - i.e. everything seems nice at first glance, but in real trade losses.
As you know, new is well forgotten old! So, while leafing through my archive, I came across a rather curious principle of trade management. And this principle applies to almost any trading system. Of course it must be at least marginally profitable, and it must have periods of account growth. Unfortunately, I have not found anything similar, let alone implementation of this principle in code.
The principle itself is very simple. We take the balance curve and attach a simple muving with the period of say 60. Although the absolute value is not critical here.
Then we will look at how our trading robot trades and at the same time, draw our own virtual balance curve for all trades executed by our trading robot. If the virtual balance curve is higher than the average one, we allow our robot to trade. However, as soon as the virtual balance goes under the mouving, the robot starts to trade on paper. Thus, the filter is activated and does not allow the robot to open real trades as long as the virtual balance curve does not exceed the moving average. Please refer to the screenshot.
I think it is clear that this idea can save a considerable amount of money on drawdowns. That is not a tricky approach.
And now the question!!! Who can implement it in code as a separate module that can be docked to any Expert Advisor?
By the way. Recently, I have analyzed Reshetov's Expert Advisors that he generates using his super program. So, for them this trick may be good enough. They have quite long periods of account build-up and sharp drawdowns that can be filtered out.
ZS. Especially for Reshetov.
I have a couple of ideas how to significantly improve your EA for the minute cable. In its original form it is unfortunately not stable.
The matter of fact is that if the balance repeats the price chart, it means that the EA will not work for a long time. This is the difference between the chart of the Expert Advisor and the chart of the previous one. If you look at the example of the Expert Advisor, your approach does not help.
The idea is great. But.
1) Suitable for fixed lot trading.
2) The muving on the balance, is not much different from the muving on the price - i.e. everything seems nice at first glance, but in real trading losses.
Disagree!!! It is possible to pick up a muving such that there will also be a profit.
In principle, when the balance repeats the price chart, it means that the Expert Advisor cannot work for a long time. And instead of torturing the Expert Advisor that does not work, it is easier to modify the TS. This is an example of the Expert Advisor where your approach will not help.
I cannot see the picture. Well, you're the one who says FITTEN!!!! >> and that doesn't usually go with the word STABILIZE.
I disagree!!! It is possible to pick up a muving such that there will also be a profit.
I disagree!!! You can pick a muving such that there will be profit.
Ohhhh, it got through. Please, half year linear volume report. current, i'm trading this strategy myself. here your muving will only cut profits if it makes any difference at all
That's the thing: it seems so simple in theory and not very workable in practice. Once upon a time I ran a special demo for which I kept detailed statistics in Excel. I was doing my best with figures, including the balance curve, even drew a mouwing, though with smaller periods than you suggest. Of course, my toolkit was not all that good, but I was unable to squeeze it out. As the author has correctly noted, we need a profitable Expert Advisor and I would say that's the most important thing. Even from the point of view of the above figure I can point out "zones" in which in practice there will be nothing but sinking/absence of positive effects.
Why is this the case? This is the first rule of anti-technical analysis: what happened in the past is not certain to happen in the future. That is, a paper balance, even if it has risen beyond the muving, has no guarantee of future growth. This has been proven.
All in all, the idea is very good, in terms of originality, I can say that I have picked up some very valuable things from my research, so my advice is to continue. Maybe you will somehow manage to squeeze something out of the idea, maybe something else will come out, but the approach is right.
P.S.
У меня есть пара идей как значительно улучшить Ваш сооветник для минутного кабеля. В исходном виде он к сожалению не устойчив.
Go ahead, write and discuss.
It sounds like a useless idea to me. How many times have they tried to squeeze something useful out of MA in those analyses? Do you think it will show itself better in MM? You can pick up the muwings. It is possible to find the ideal moving averages that show beautiful from hell balance lines. But it will be just a correction for the history.
Why so? It is the first rule of anti-technical analysis: what happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future. That is, a paper balance sheet, even if it has risen beyond the muwings, has no guarantee of future growth. This has been tested.
Ilya is absolutely right - no selection of the ideal moving averages for the tester will not save from Kolyan from the future.
It sounds like a useless idea to me. How many times have they tried to squeeze something useful out of MA in those analyses? Do you think it will show itself better in MM? You can pick up the muwings. It is possible to find the ideal moving averages that show beautiful from hell balance lines. But it will only be a tweak to the story.
Ilya is absolutely right - no selection of ideal muvings for the tester will save from Kolyan from the future.
To the skeptics!!!!
I didn't get lazy and did some research in Excel.
1. Took Reshetov's Expert Advisor https://www.mql5.com/ru/code/8870 and ran it from early 2008 till May 2009 - it was REALLY losing money.
2. I have copied the test results into Excel and slightly processed the balance curve.
3. i applied a simple mouwing with period 13 to it (i didn't optimized it from the ceiling) it's a bit time consuming to optimize it in Excel.
4. As a result I got the plum, but it was half as much. See the screenshot below.
Note: Dark blue line - balance curve. Purple - 13 period mouving on it, Yellow - New Balance with MM.
Attachment has an Excel file with the formulas according to which the calculation was done.
Conclusions:
- Even such a shamelessly losing Expert Advisor can improve the result. (So to say, to relieve the death throes :-)
- As you can see from the above screen, the New Balance behaves much "firmer" to drawdowns and has a more gentle view.
- If you want to understand better how this trading method of management behaves please send me tests in Excel format performed with profitable Expert Advisors.
Note: In my opinion, a serious effect can be observed in those Expert Advisors that have long series of both losing and profitable trades.
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As you know, new is well forgotten old! So, while leafing through my archive, I came across a rather curious principle of trade management. And this principle applies to almost any trading system. Of course it must be at least marginally profitable, and it must have periods of account growth. Unfortunately, I have not found anything similar, let alone implementation of this principle in code.
The principle itself is very simple. We take the balance curve and attach a simple muving with the period of say 60. Although the absolute value is not critical here.
Then we will look at how our trading robot trades and at the same time, draw our own virtual balance curve for all trades executed by our trading robot. If the virtual balance curve is higher than the average one, we allow our robot to trade. However, as soon as the virtual balance goes under the mouving, the robot starts to trade on paper. Thus, the filter is activated and does not allow the robot to open real trades as long as the virtual balance curve does not exceed the moving average. Please refer to the screenshot.
I think it is clear that this idea can save a considerable amount of money on drawdowns. That is not a tricky approach.
And now a question!!! Who can implement it in code as a separate module, which can be docked to any Expert Advisor ???
By the way. Recently, I have analyzed Reshetov's Expert Advisors that he generates using his super program. So, for them this trick may be good enough. They have quite long periods of account build-up and sharp drawdowns that can be filtered out.
ZS. Especially for Reshetov.
I have a couple of ideas how to significantly improve your EA for the minute cable. In its original form it is unfortunately not stable.