Fibonacci levels: myth or reality? - page 11
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
I've been thinking about Fibo levels as well. I think it's a fact that any trend rolls back at least 38.2%. It's like the law of any trend. This rule is never broken.
Here's an example. The green lines in the picture show the trend and its extremums. The trend length is 14886-14546=340 pips. Its pullback is 14886-14777=109 pips. This is approximately 32.1%. So it turns out that the trend has not corrected at least 38.2% and went further up? It didn't. Who says the trend here is correct? It's not a fact that the trend is correct. If we first consider the trend shown by the red lines, we can calculate that its length is 14826-14546=280 pips and it rolled back to 14826-14714=112 pips, that is about 40%. That is, we have not one trend here, but two. The first starts from 14546 and the second from 14714. So both trends have rolled back at least 38.2%, although initially we could have thought that there was one trend here and it didn't roll back 38.2%.
I have looked at a lot of charts. And I have noticed that any trend, even the most powerful and unpredictable one, always rolls back at least 38.2%. I believe that in Forex this is a law that is never broken. If you find a trend that has not rolled back 38.2%, show me, I'll take a look.
I'm trying to use this law in my EA now. It turns out to be not so easy to use this property of the market. The Expert Advisor shows a stable profit on long segments, but several times a year it has 500-1000 point trends on М15. At those moments there is a loss, because there is not enough margin. I am currently working on this problem. It seems to be bewitched everywhere. I cannot think of a universal system.
The Expert Advisor shows stable profit on long sections, but several times a year there are 500-1000 pips trends on M15. At these moments there is a loss, because there is not enough margin. I am solving this problem now.
>> Why break it? ) it still needs to be working. You can sift out such outliers - more .... %. stop trading for how many candles... or until a new input signal. For example.
The argument is fundamentally wrong! (As is the mistake in the name :))
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Фибоначчи
The formula for calculating according to Fibonacci theory:
We get the sequence:
0.6180339887 0.38196601118843 0.23606797744262 0.1458980337032 etc.
(Please note that 0.5 is not visible here... maybe that's why this level doesn't always work? ;))
So what are you trying to prove anyway?
If you take other levels, it will already be your own composition tool, but by no means Fibonacci :)
And it, like any other tool, may or may not work in the situation you presented.
Why break it ? ) You still need it to work. You can weed out such outliers - more than .... %. stop trading for how many candles... or until a new input signal. For example.
I've tried that. But all the same it comes down to the fact that it is impossible to predict the length of the trend. If deals have already been made expecting a pullback of at least 38.2%, then all deals will anyway close in the negative direction when the trend continues, or in the positive direction when the trend pulls back.
While writing this EA on the history I noticed that all situations which are theoretically possible occur on any pair. I mean low volatility currencies and high volatility ones. By the way, though it is considered as a low-volatility pair, but last September-October there were such jumps on M15 that even the GBP had a rest. But in all cases the trend always rolls back 38.2%, sometimes more, but never less. There are even 38.2%, but never less. But how to use it?
About zigzags: the simple fact is that if you randomly flip one time between all extrema, the system will be profitable...
Please formalise the concept of "once between", especially "between". I want to check the truth of the statement. =)
>> How do you use this one?
You have to look in detail and from different angles, what are the reasons for such moves (maybe it's just the news), etc. Another option is to change the entry point (but here you need to understand where the price usually goes after a pullback).
If you want to check the position position, you have to look in details, from different angles, due to what such shifts happen (maybe just due to the news), etc. Another variant is to change the entry point (but here you should analyze where the price usually goes after a pullback.)
I've tried everything. I don't think the news has anything to do with it. I am telling you that all theoretical variants that may occur can be shown by any pair in practice. For instance, the sharp fall of 500 pips and then the sharp reversal at the next candlestick and change of the trend by the same 500 pips or even more. It may be a reverse slow movement of 500-1000 points. Sometimes 500 points are overcome by one candlestick. All variants that are possible, any pair shows within a year. The invariable law that always works is the one I mentioned above.
Therefore, it is impossible to find the safe entry point. You will also not be able to foresee sharp bounces. No one can fundamentally foresee such surges. Therefore, I believe that knowledge of the news will not help. I do not know how to use this law that always works.
I've been thinking about Fibo levels as well. I think it's a fact that any trend rolls back at least 38.2%. It's like the law of any trend. It's a rule that's never broken.
Now that's something you can check.