Oil - perspectives, expectations, opinions. - page 4
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That is the point: they do. Clinton talks about the exclusivity and primacy of the USA, while Trump says that we are like everyone else, let people live normally. Ordinary taxpayers do not care about foreign policy ambitions of the elite, but they do care how many more orange regimes they have to maintain and how much they can help the Saudis and others by overpaying for gas?
P.S. There is one thing, however - there are countries where "taking care of the people" really aims at perfection and there are countries where it looks ridiculous, cynical and mocking.
That's the idea, colleagues )
And the topic was not about politics at all in this thread, but about the prospects of oil prices.)
That's the whole perspective of oil.
The idea is good, but I don't think things will be so clear-cut after the FOMC
Well you're thinking so vertically )
It's a good idea but I don't think things will be that clear cut after the FOMC
This is not an idea, oil markets in sales, change in purchases, guess three times where it will go)
Oil cannot fundamentally go down. Yes, the share of consumption in the form of fuel is declining significantly. It's about time.
"Drowning in oil means drowning in appropriations" (c).
But look around you and look at all the things made out of oil nowadays.
"The plastic world has won" (c)
The iron age is being replaced by the plastic age. What was once made of iron and wood is now made of materials derived from hydrocarbons.
Pipes, all kinds of casings, 3D printing, furniture, clothing, building materials for decoration and construction ... Needless to say! Rice and vodka have learned to make plastic! Name the materials that can compete with them!
Oil cannot fundamentally go down. Yes, the share of consumption in the form of fuel is declining significantly. It's about time.
"Drowning in oil means drowning in appropriations" (c).
But look around you and look at all the things made out of oil nowadays.
"The plastic world has won" (c)
The iron age is being replaced by the plastic age. What was once made of iron and wood is now made of materials derived from hydrocarbons.
Pipes, all kinds of housing, 3D printing, furniture, clothing, building materials for decoration and construction ... Needless to say! Rice and vodka have learned to make plastic! Name the materials that can compete with them!
Excuse me, but I do not argue so "fundamentally", "can not, can not", I only see the facts, oil sold. 46.50-70 and down.
This is where the markets will cover their profitable buying and bring the price down.
Shall we watch?)
Sorry, but I don't reason like that, "fundamentally", "may or may not", I just see the facts, oil sold out. 46.50-70 and down.
This is where the markets will profitably cover the purchases they have been dumped and collapse the price.
Shall we watch?)
We'll be watching.)
http://ktovkurse.com/rossiya/bank-rossii-vnov-sygral-protiv-rublya
The price of oil, in the first approximation, depends on the strength of the dollar, a strong dollar means cheap oil, a cheap dollar means expensive oil. It is clear that if the dollar is expensive, you can buy more oil for USD 1, or the same oil in dollars will cost less. It is clear that this dependence is highly complex, non-linear, changing over time and also mutual. But in a rough approximation it can be considered linear.
In order for oil to go down to $30 in the current environment, the dollar would need to strengthen , I think, to somewhere around 1.050 against the euro. If the FOMC raises the rates tomorrow and Yellen announces at the press-conference that they are ready to raise the rates in December and maybe in March as well, the dollar will surely go to these levels for a couple of weeks maximum, and oil may drop to 30$ per barrel or even lower. But this scenario is the most improbable in my opinion.
Much more likely in my opinion, that the rate will not increase tomorrow, therefore the dollar will slide to the levels of 1.15-1.17, and the Brent will go to the area of $55. By December the US statistics will worsen, inflation will slow down and as a result the December rate hike will not take place either. As a consequence, EUR/USD will jump above 1.20 and Brent will consequently jump above $60.
The value of oil, as a first approximation, depends on the strength of the dollar, expensive dollar - oil is cheap, cheap dollar - oil is expensive. It is understandable that if the dollar is expensive, you can buy more oil for USD 1, or that the same oil in dollars will cost less. It is clear that this dependence is highly complex, non-linear, changing over time and also mutual. But in a rough approximation it can be considered linear.
In order for oil to go down to $30 in the current environment, the dollar would need to strengthen , I think, to somewhere around 1.050 against the euro. If the FOMC raises the rates tomorrow and Yellen announces at the press-conference that they are ready to raise the rates in December and maybe in March as well, the dollar will surely go to these levels for a couple of weeks maximum, and oil may drop to 30$ per barrel or even lower. But this scenario is the most improbable in my opinion.
Much more likely in my opinion, that the rate will not increase tomorrow, therefore the dollar will slide to the levels of 1.15-1.17, and the Brent will go to the area of $55. By December the US statistics will worsen, inflation will slow down and as a result the December rate hike will not take place either. As a consequence EUR/USD will jump higher than 1.20 and Brent will climb higher than $60.
I do not doubt that the dollar index will be above a hundred by the end of the year.
The most likely scenario, sales on the dollar have not yet gained as well as purchases on the euro.