The oil issue ... - page 6
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Wondering :
The price of oil is falling, OPEC is not cutting production, the US is starting to export oil for the first time in 75 years, which it was not buying at current prices.
WHAT IS THIS?
"I don't see an end to this decline.", predicts major financier Thomas Regan...
Greetings all.
I, like Vladimir, am no expert on oil. The situation is, of course, somewhat absurd. One cannot help but be reminded of some sci-fi writers' ideas about "the world behind the scenes".
And if you abstract away from the realities that Vladimir listed in his first post, and look at the price chart - in my opinion, a very large market maker went for the "stops".
We, for our part, will love our loved ones and communicate on this interesting forum.
While you are counting how much oil has risen, I suggest taking a more global view of this commodity, on a 40+ year scale. I have marked interesting points in the figure with comments.
Wait for the absolute low and multiply it by 2.5 this will be the ceiling, if it is passed, the ceiling is around 90, otherwise the ceiling will be lower.
In general, happy HAPPY TO ALL OF YOU!!!
Isn't everyone still tired of this nonsense about printing dollars? Well they print as many as they want... but the price keeps going up and up and up... that's what's going on. And the ruble goes down and down.
That's why I downloaded 40 years of quotes. I could have done more, but Metatrader only got it from 1971.
I'm just tired of reading when everyone is happy or sad when oil is five dollars off) They start looking for someone who brought oil down or increased it on the contrary).
It has long been written in textbooks that commodity markets are cyclical.
Let's break the problem down into its components:
First, the cost of producing a barrel of oil.
US: oil shale (which is what we are talking about) has reduced the cost to $16 thanks to plasma fracturing, actively conducting research to reduce the cost to $10
Russia: $15, there is no exploration, costs are being optimized (i.e. workers are being cut). Guess who will be the first out of the race?
Saudis: Surprise Surprise, the production cost per barrel is $2.
Now about why the U.S. suddenly decided to compete with the Saudis? It's simple enough, the U.S. has a strategic plan to tie in the new agreements with the entire world trade, through the Pacific Partnership and the transatlantic partnership. So that there is no trade imbalance between Europe and the U.S., the latter need to sell something to Europe in large quantities. And then the shale gas revolution came up.
And what is the actual competitive price that shale producers can bear? Given that the decline in oil prices affects only the producing companies, even refining does not suffer, and the entire market wins, it is obvious that the U.S. oil companies will be given preferences, such as tax holidays and restructuring of debts (simply they are not required to pay the debt, they just need to serve it, and the interest is not exorbitant).
That is, the U.S. generally benefits from a low oil price, and God's chosen Russia has nothing to do with it, it benefits the domestic market.
There is only one question: how long will shale companies tolerate the price of $12 a barrel, a year or five years?
There is no doubt that the Saudis will set the same $12 price in their competition, it is a done deal. The only thing on the agenda is how long this price will hold?
Analysts have different forecasts, but two clusters stand out. Some say that the price of $12 per barrel will last a year, while others justify their forecasts for five years.
And yes, anticipating the criticism that it is too simple, complex geopolitical plans are doomed to fail, at least because they involve a lot of people, among whom there will always be fools who do not understand a complex plan and mess up in the most critical area. So if you want to get to the bottom of it, look for simple explanations.
Let's break the problem down into its components:
First, the cost of producing a barrel of oil.
US: shale (which is what we are talking about) has reduced the cost to $16 thanks to plasma fracturing, and is actively researching to reduce the cost to $10
Given the cheap money in the West and the low margin in the futures market of up to 10% of the value of the underlying asset. My guess is that the shale producers hedged their futures against a fall when oil was $100. These contracts will expire in two or three years. But, this is assuming that the cost of shale oil is around 80, or even longer if it is lower.
The US shale industry has the task of grabbing the European market, which is a higher priority than lining its pockets with the next few yards.
If it is achieved, the yards will be poured in for years to come.
Isn't everyone still sick of this nonsense about printing dollars? Well, they're printing as much as they want... But they keep going up and up and up... that's what's going on. And the ruble goes down and down.
The rouble is not falling, it is being artificially lowered.
Why?
It's very simple:
With the sale of one barrel of oil at $100, the Russian budget at the exchange rate of 1 to 32 rubles would have received ~ 3000 - 3200 Russian rubles.
At the price of $ 36 per barrel, to get 3000 - 3200 roubles, consider the exchange rate of ~ 70-80 roubles.
Unfortunately the price of oil does not depend on Russia or any other country, it depends on cartel deals and unions.
That is how the Russian budget gets its money from oil sales. If the exchange rate remains 1 to 32, the budget will shrink by 3-4 times.
Let me remind you:
The most important thing for any state is to maintain its social obligations to the people (pensioners, doctors, teachers, the military and others . who receive money from the budget and then spend it in private enterprises, giving a turnover and wages to private entrepreneurs).
It is import-dependent organizations (services, manufacturing, etc., with any imports obtained with a $ component), including high-tech industries, which suffer from the high exchange rate.
What should the authorities do to stabilize the situation?
1 Replace imports with domestic goods or goods bought for real money.
2 Develop technologies and domestic production or buy technologies not for $.
Everything is simple, and they are doing everything right in Russia, time will show... (IMHO).
I agree with many that a salary of 15,000 to 30,000 rubles makes these kopecks, but it is much worse if there is no work to earn these kopecks.
The rouble is not falling, it is being artificially lowered.
Why?
It's very simple:
With the sale of one barrel of oil at $100, the Russian budget at the exchange rate of 1 to 32 rubles would have received ~ 3000 - 3200 Russian rubles.
At the price of $ 36 per barrel, to get 3000 - 3200 roubles, consider the exchange rate of ~ 70-80 roubles.
Unfortunately the price of oil does not depend on Russia or any other country, it depends on cartel deals and unions.
That is how the Russian budget gets its money from oil sales. If the exchange rate remains 1 to 32, the budget will shrink by 3-4 times.
Let me remind you:
The most important thing for any state is to maintain its social obligations to the people (pensioners, doctors, teachers, the military and others . who receive money from the budget and then spend it in private enterprises, giving a turnover and wages to private entrepreneurs).
It is import-dependent organizations (services, manufacturing, etc., with any imports obtained with a $ component), including high-tech industries, which suffer from the high exchange rate.
What should the authorities do to stabilize the situation?
1 Replace imports with domestic goods or goods bought for real money.
2 Develop technologies and domestic production or buy technologies not for $.
Everything is simple, and they are doing everything right in Russia, time will show... (IMHO).
Yes I agree with many that on a salary of 15,000 - 30,000 rubles it has become a kopeck, but much worse if there is no work to earn these kopecks.
You killed it!
Buggagaaaaa....