Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 40
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So far, so good. So far it is difficult to find even one economic indicator capable of predicting the future value of GDP better than simply taking the latest known value of GDP. Actually, it is possible to find such a predictor, but only if one already knows this future value. For example, by looking at history, one can select good predictors and find a fairly accurate model of "past" future values. But this is self-defeating. At each point in history it is only necessary to take the data available until that moment, select predictors on that data and build a model of the future. But so far the predictors chosen on past data are bad at predicting the future. "Poor" in the sense of worse than a trivial prediction equal to the last known value. Increasing the dimensionality of the model does not increase its accuracy. My theory is that if I can't find even one predictor, there is no point in looking for two predictors according to my numerous experiments. Replacing a linear model with a non-linear model only decreases accuracy.
Trading is the neurosurgery of economics.
You cannot become a neurosurgeon (after becoming a radio technician for example) by doing it "half an hour after work and an hour a day on weekends". This is common knowledge from trading books. If you really wanted to do something substantial in the economics and trading industry, you would have paid more attention to ECONOMICS, rather than trying to link radio correlation (and in Privalov style) to price series forecasting. And if you paid more attention to ECONOMICS you would know that the Swiss Central Bank has been plundering hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equities. And with it the central banks of other countries. And a hundred billion dollars can pull the SP500 up by itself for months on end - without any "fundamental" reason. Here is a socialist decision made in some central bank, "let's pack on US stocks because everything else is worse" and the SP500 goes up for a month or two. Get rid of that radio-technical arrogance of thinking all economists are idiots. They are not idiots. Yes, there are plenty of parasites and mediocrities out there, but the idiots are less than half. What makes you think that you are the only one who reads these thousands of economic indicators? They do too, and at times link the SP500 index to macroeconomic data. That is not what moves the price, or more accurately, NOT THAT. The price is driven by many factors and there is no simple radio model "for a system that I created myself + you know, some noise" that FULLY describes such a complex Alien system that doesn't belong to you, like the economy of an entire country.
You have gone so far in your delusions that you have forgotten the usual sequence of scientific investigation using statistics. I will take the liberty of reminding you of it:
= first the hypothesis of an internal regular (i.e.) stable relationship between phenomena is hypothesised from ANY EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS;
= then the presence of correlation is first checked with mathematical methods, and then it can be measured and calculated AFTERwards (this is method #1). if there is a relationship, only then do we move on;
= and only then is correlation calculated as an indicator of the relationship.
You have no first point at all, no model or hypothesis of correlation of phenomena. I have shown you above that there may not be one, because the semi-secret balance sheet of the Swedish Central Bank, which shows the growth (buying) of equities (US equities), you do not have it at all. You probably don't know that at all. Your primitive model of "all the stupid parasites on Wall Street read the latest US statistics and immediately rush to buy US stocks, which causes the SP500 to go up" has little to do with reality. It's trickier, and at times much smarter. It is a game of tricksters, or rather it WAS a game of tricksters, which is now becoming a game of the desperate. They buy SP500 stocks, because everything else is WAY worse, so the SP500 index is also dependent on the withdrawal of money by "investors" from other assets, which they consider unpromising there.
The other thing is forex. Here ALL currencies are correlated (but to a different degree) - that is FOREVER.
And if you paid more attention to economics you would know that the Swiss central bank has accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equities. And with it the central banks of other countries.
Not a single central bank in the world has shares on its balance sheet.
There aresecurities, but there are no shares.
There are no shares in the balance sheet of any Central Bank in the world.
There aresecurities, but there are no shares.
*** you, Dima. Your arrogance has been off the charts for months.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-31/despite-being-long-94-billion-stocks-swiss-national-bank-reports-record-loss-equal-7
The Swiss National Bank Is Long $94 Billion In Stocks, Reports Record Loss Equal To 7% Of Swiss GDP
*** you Dima. Your arrogance has been off the charts for months.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-31/despite-being-long-94-billion-stocks-swiss-national-bank-reports-record-loss-equal-7
The Swiss National Bank Is Long $94 Billion In Stocks, Reports Record Loss Equal To 7% Of Swiss GDP
One mention of equities and a balance sheet article on stock market operations.
Everything else is nonsense, speculation and conspiracy.
Read - one mention of equity securities and a balance sheet article on stock market transactions.
Everything else is nonsense, speculation and conspiracy.
The credibility of your statements (as well as opinions) is ZERO.
Zerohedge is everyone's famous website.
Who are you? Ah, yes, you sound like a hired gun from GS or the New York financial mafia that needs to keep the suckers in the dark while "their people" and relatives chop up the cabbage.
Hysteria?
OK, you've concluded that the Swiss Central Bank has been dealing in shares - your right to your conclusions. И?
What does that have to do with forecasting based on macro indicators?
Hysteria?
OK, you've concluded that the Swiss Central Bank has been dealing in shares - your right to your conclusions. И?
What does that have to do with forecasting based on macro indicators?
Cossack, google "tato, de sea?
That's what I thought.
Trading is the neurosurgery of economics.
You can't become a neurosurgeon (after becoming a radio technician, for example) by doing it "for half an hour after work and an hour a day at the weekend". This is common knowledge from trading books. If you really wanted to do something significant in the economics and trading industry, you would have paid more attention to ECONOMICS, rather than trying to link radio correlation (and in Privalov style) to price series forecasting. And if you paid more attention to ECONOMICS you would know that the Swiss Central Bank has been plundering hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equities. And with it the central banks of other countries. And a hundred billion dollars can pull the SP500 up by itself for months on end - without any "fundamental" reason. Here is a socialist decision made in some central bank, "let's pack on US stocks because everything else is worse" and the SP500 goes up for a month or two. Get rid of that radio-technical arrogance of thinking all economists are idiots. They are not idiots. Yes, there are plenty of parasites and mediocrities out there, but the idiots are less than half. What makes you think that you are the only one who reads these thousands of economic indicators? They do too, and at times link the SP500 index to macroeconomic data. That is not what moves the price, or more accurately, NOT THAT. The price is driven by many factors and there is no simple radio model "for a system that I created myself + you know, some noise" that FULLY describes such a complex Alien system that doesn't belong to you, like the economy of an entire country.
You have gone so far in your delusions that you have forgotten the usual sequence of scientific investigation using statistics. I will take the liberty of reminding you of it:
= first the hypothesis of an internal regular (i.e.) stable relationship between phenomena is hypothesised from ANY EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS;
= then we FIRST check with mathematical methods for the presence of correlation, which can be measured and calculated AFTERwards (this is method #1). if there is a correlation, only then move on;
= and only then is correlation calculated as an indicator of the relationship.
You have no first point at all, no model or hypothesis of correlation of phenomena. I showed you above that there may not be one, because the semi-secret balance sheet of the Swedish Central Bank, which shows the growth (buying) of equities (US equities), you do not have it at all. You probably don't know that at all. Your primitive model of "all the stupid parasites on Wall Street read the latest US statistics and immediately rush to buy US stocks, which causes the SP500 to go up" has little to do with reality. It's trickier, and at times much smarter. It is a game of tricksters, or rather it WAS a game of tricksters, which is now becoming a game of the desperate. They buy SP500 stocks, because everything else is WAY worse, so the SP500 index is also dependent on the withdrawal of money by "investors" from other assets, which they consider unpromising there.
The other thing is forex. Here ALL currencies are correlated (but to a different degree) - that is FOREVER.
Well, it's spring, the bear is awake, hungry ...
Shall I show how the S&P500 fell in 2008 during the negative growth of GDP, or shall I take a look for myself?
Go to the beginning of the thread and read about my goals - predicting crashes and avoiding long positions before they occur. I'm not interested in trading, so I use quarterly data. The main thing is capital preservation. And how the S&P500 fluctuates around its trends and flat is of no interest to me.
>> Get rid of that radio-technical arrogance of thinking all economists are idiots... What makes you think you are the only one who reads these thousands of economic indicators? They read them too.
I don't think they are all idiots, but most are, they postulate things to come, or they constantly predict a recession until it happens, and then they declare themselves geniuses. So far not one economist has predicted the 2008 crash, so, yes, idiots except for a couple. The Fed Bank uses its SDGE model with 16 generally accepted indicators to predict the economy and that model is dumb. And you probably haven't even heard of such a model.
It has nothing to do with radio engineering and correlation. I don't use radiotechnical methods, but I don't see any harm in them either. You are arrogant in the sense that you do not allow the existence of methods of analysis and the creation of models different from those generally accepted in economics. Ignoring the progress of modelling and machine learning in other branches of science is arrogance, or even stupidity, which prevents you from making new discoveries.
Well, it's spring, the bear is awake, hungry...
... So far no economist has predicted the 2008 crash, so, yes, idiots except for a couple. ....What do you mean? I predicted a global crisis, back in 2007. Here, check it out, with the proofs on the Israeli forum (where I certainly can't fake anything):
http://smart-lab.ru/blog/315300.php
My past economic predictions, from 2007.
Written by Mon Mar 19, 2007:
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Economic prosperity is ILLEGAL. In the event of unforeseen problems in the economy: oil, a major war and the like, the states are hedged. That is, it is insured by setting aside huge (trillions of dollars) of liquid assets in thousands of funds around the world.
The other countries have VERY little such insurance. Therefore the lifeline will only be thrown to the States.
The problem for the rest of the countries is so-called surplus liquidity, i.e. the proliferation of Americans and Japanese in all markets. But under this excess liquidity (under its cheerful economic indicators) ALL COUNTRIES have issued local LONG-TERM CREDITS (which has caused a simultaneous stupid house price increase in all countries).
Get it? In the event of any crisis, the States withdraw their FAST assets to HER, leaving the local authorities to deal with the LONG-TERM domestic loans.
Besides, the mood in the States is actually DANGEROUS:
http://forexpf.ru/_newses_/newsid.php?news=309359
As was evident in the incomprehensible dip in rates on February 27, 2007. Investors in the USA are ALREADY waiting for a crisis.
So the feast before the plague will be (in an economic sense) on borrowed money.
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http://forum.souz.co.il/viewtopic.php?p=1500490
Written by Thu Aug 09, 2007:
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Bankers all over the world have gone crazy: they are lending real estate loans of this size and to people they have never lent to before. In order to get around the "golden rule of banking - the amount of loans issued must not exceed the amount of liabilities" by means of cunning funds and mortgage bonds, "loans for loans" are actually speculation on the growth of mortgages, the equivalent of which is margin trade, that is speculation using an EXCELLENT - a bank (or broker) loan. In stock market speculation, this works fine if there are no shocks - due to such a "brake pedal" as a "margin call" - the instantaneous stopping of credit (and participation in the process) to someone who misbehaves. In the case of a mortgage, there is NO such margin call.
The process of getting into "the wrong" can go so far that no one notices. This is what happened to a number of European banks today - they are so "biddable" that they don't even KNOW their losses! They can't even reconcile their balance sheets! The Central Bank of Europe today issued 90 billion Euros (!!!) from reserves - to pay off this "balance sheet miscommunication".
Personally, all this is wild to me. What were they hoping for? To cheat their own balance sheet?
Again - this is not just Israel's problem - all bankers have gone mad. The only difference is that the US bankers can afford it - they have $20 TRILLION in quick (liquid) assets, i.e. LIVE MONEY. The rest of us have promissory notes.
Isn't that a bit abstruse? See what we're talking about?
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http://forum.souz.co.il/viewtopic.php?t=70900
Posted on Aug 19, 2007.
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The gap between official lending rates and real interbank rates is usually 0.5%-1.0%. The coming global liquidity crisis will cause this gap to widen and break the normal flow of money between banks. To give an analogy from medicine: it is equivalent to a massive thrombophlebitis - a blockage of blood vessels.
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http://forum.souz.co.il/viewtopic.php?p=1660775
Written by Mon Jul 23, 2007:
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ABOUT NEFTY in today's world.
Let's talk about oil.
Oil is evil. As a substance it is no more evil than gold. But just as the special properties of gold induce people to idolise it and make idols of it, the special properties of oil induce people to make an evil substance for themselves. Look at
Look at the daily business news - there is rarely a day that does not begin with the price of oil on the stock exchanges. Look at the top 20 largest companies in the world - the oil companies. Look at the number one company in the world - the oil (private) company.
The oil company has been elevated to the rank of a queen, and by the hands of humans, it does evil: it (i.e. people and oil) makes people talk about it endlessly, it attracts attention, it makes rulers ingratiate themselves with it. In a duet with the internal combustion engine, oil has placed itself on the throne of the world. Take a look at the
the news feed - among the world's events is sure to be the opening of a new motor show. Think about it - people are made to wait - for the release of another painted and varnished piece of metal - as a REVIEW.
A car is not just a piece of iron - it's a painted coffin. Cars claim an estimated 1,500,000 to 1.5 million human lives a year on the roads, but does it get mentioned in the news? - Well, unless it's an exotic car accident. The automobile, this simplest of mechanisms, has become like a wild
instinct-driven beast that comes out of the woods and steals people's lives.
People have made beasts for themselves and made them a thing to be worshipped.
Who needs modern weapons if there is no oil? Without oil, the rocket will not take off, the tank will not move, the tractor will not take the gun to the firing position, the infantry will not have time to reach the front line, the plane will not fly.
Oil has become as much a weapon as the ironclads it propels, and probably even more important than them.
...
Only the encyclopaedia article mistakenly refers to the state of Babylon as "the harlot of Babylon".
The harlot of Babylon in the Apocalypse is precisely the NEFT.
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http://forum.souz.co.il/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=70583
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Aren't you now surprised by the news about the collapse of the "European Union" and the European financial system? And yet I wrote about it back in 2013 here on the forum:
Professor, at least teach me how to deal only with "legal" currencies. How do you distinguish between an illegal currency like the "euro" and an illegal one?
The EU has no Constitution. No Constitution - no law. No law means no legitimate government. No government means paper monetary obligations issued by an unauthorised body are illegal.