AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 31.08 - 07.09: Rally under Primary Bearish - page 2
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newdigital, 2014.09.05 09:55
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx)
The EUR/USD may face a further decline over the next 24-hours of trade as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show the world’s largest economy adding another 230K jobs in August while the jobless rate is expected to narrow to an annualized 6.1% from 6.2% the month prior.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of a more robust recovery may further boost interest rate expectations as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to halt its asset-purchase program at the October 29 meeting, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the U.S dollar may gather pace throughout the remainder of the year as a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willing to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
The pickup in economic activity paired with the highest ISM employment prints for 2014 may highlight a further expansion in job growth, and an above-forecast NFP figure may spur fresh monthly lows in the EUR/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
On the other hand, the recent slowdown in private-sector consumption - one of the leading drivers of growth - may generate another weaker-than-expect print, and a soft employment reading may spur a more meaningful pullback in the greenback as it dampens the outlook for the world’s largest economy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Climb 230K or Greater While Jobless Rate Slips to 6.1% or Lower
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Job Growth Falls Short of Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Downside targets remain favored as RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory.
- Interim Resistance: 1.3350 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3370 (50.0% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.2870 (50.0% expansion) to 1.2900 (1.618% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:
AUDUSD M5 : 46 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:
The U.S. economy added 209K jobs in July, following a revised 298K increase the month prior. The print was below the average estimate of 230K. The jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 6.2% from 6.1% in June as discouraged workers returned to the labor force. Nevertheless, the greenback lost ground following the below-forecast print, with the EUR/USD rallying to a high of 1.3443 going into the European close.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.09.05
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 36 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event