There is a difference in probability between 2 different gains?

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Mrluck07
426
Mrluck07  
Some people say that at any given time, the probability for the price, for example, to go up 10 pips, or go down 10 pips, is 50% for each side, right? But what's the probability at any given time, for example, that the price will move for example only 2 pips up and 10 pips down? Is 50% too? Thanks for answer
Max Victor
21
Max Victor  
That is a hard question. Probabilty depends on multiple factors like trend, market sentiment etc. There is no fixed number, but generally the probability is less than 50% considering the spread and commission.
Minions Labs
1702
Minions Labs  

It is never 50/50. All events have variables which affect every and each one in different ways.

Forget for a moment about the Stock Market and start with a simple event called Coin toss. People think that this action is random and it has a 50/50 chance, but this is false. Why? Coin toss has its variables also: human factor.

http://time.com/4040408/why-the-coin-toss-is-random/

;)

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Icham Aidibe
11295
Icham Aidibe  
Mrluck07:
Some people say that at any given time, the probability for the price, for example, to go up 10 pips, or go down 10 pips, is 50% for each side, right? But what's the probability at any given time, for example, that the price will move for example only 2 pips up and 10 pips down? Is 50% too? Thanks for answer

If 5 indicators tells you to go long, it'll very likely bull - hence the EA mades of plenty of indicators. 

ADRIAN MATUSIAK
1256
ADRIAN MATUSIAK  
Max Victor:
That is a hard question. Probabilty depends on multiple factors like trend, market sentiment etc. There is no fixed number, but generally the probability is less than 50% considering the spread and commission.

That is totally right.

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