EURUSD Technical Analysis 23.02 - 02.03: Ranging - page 2

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.27 07:56

Trading the News: German Unemployment Change (based on dailyfx article)

• German Unemployment to Decline for Three Straight Month
• Unemployment Reported to Hold at 6.8% for Third Month

Another 10.0K drop in German Unemployment may spur a bullish reaction in the EURUSD as it limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle at the March 6 meeting.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/27/2014 8:55 GMT, 3:55 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: -10K
Previous: -28K
Forecast: -10K to 10K

Why Is This Event Important:

With the ECB interest rate decision quickly approaching, positive developments coming out of Europe’s largest economy may limit the downside risk for the single currency, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to implement more non-standard measures this year amid the persistent threat for disinflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish Euro Trade: German Unemployment Falls 10.0K or Greater

• Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long Euro trade
• If the market reaction favors a bullish EURUSD trade, buy with two position
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to cost on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit

Bearish Euro Trade: Labor Report Disappoints

• Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short EURUSD entry
• Implement same setup as the bullish Euro trade, just in reverse

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EURUSD M5 : 19 pips price movement by German Unemployment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.27 07:56

Trading the News: German Unemployment Change (based on dailyfx article)

• German Unemployment to Decline for Three Straight Month
• Unemployment Reported to Hold at 6.8% for Third Month

Another 10.0K drop in German Unemployment may spur a bullish reaction in the EURUSD as it limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle at the March 6 meeting.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/27/2014 8:55 GMT, 3:55 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: -10K
Previous: -28K
Forecast: -10K to 10K

Why Is This Event Important:

With the ECB interest rate decision quickly approaching, positive developments coming out of Europe’s largest economy may limit the downside risk for the single currency, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to implement more non-standard measures this year amid the persistent threat for disinflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish Euro Trade: German Unemployment Falls 10.0K or Greater

• Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long Euro trade
• If the market reaction favors a bullish EURUSD trade, buy with two position
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to cost on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit

Bearish Euro Trade: Labor Report Disappoints

• Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short EURUSD entry
• Implement same setup as the bullish Euro trade, just in reverse

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.27 16:02

2013-02-27 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -4.2%
• forecast data is -0.5%
• actual data is -1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Drop 1% Amid Weak Aircraft Demand

While the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing a drop in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of January, orders unexpectedly rose when excluding transportation equipment.

The report said durable goods orders fell by 1.0 percent in January after tumbling by a revised 5.3 percent in December.

Economists had expected orders to drop by about 1.6 percent compared to the 4.2 percent decrease that had been reported for the previous month.

The drop in durable goods orders was largely due to weakness in demand for transportation equipment, which is typically very volatile.

Trading USD - Durable Goods Orders news event by images (trading example) :

• open 2 pending trades
• if one pending trade is executed so delete opposite pending trade, and place stop loss and take profit

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

1

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

2

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

3

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

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[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.28 12:56

2013-02-28 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 0.7%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

Eurozone Inflation Remains Stable In February

Eurozone inflation came in at 0.8 percent for the third consecutive month in February, flash estimate from Eurostat showed Friday. The rate was forecast to slow to 0.7 percent.

Inflation has stayed below the European Central Bank's target of 'below, but close to 2 percent' for the thirteenth consecutive month and matched a four-year low.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.28

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EURUSD M5 : 86 pips price movement by EUR - CPI news event

[Javier Crespo]

I Believe That the Eur / Usd we will see in a maximum period of 3 months at the level of 1.42