Forex Analysis by LiteForex - page 7
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XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
The price of gold remains below the level of 1097.66 where it was trading on high volumes last Friday.
According to forecasts, production of gold is declining due to the absence of new fields that could lead in the long-term to increase in the price. In 2016, its output could shrink by 3%. In addition, the price is supported by instability in the Middle East and continuing fall in oil prices.
At the same time, the price remains under pressure due to a likeliness of monetary policy tightening in the US that strengthens the Dollar.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1071.17.
Resistance levels: 1097.66.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1097.66 with the target at 1112.47 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
XAG/USD: technical analysis
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are barely changing. DI lines are moving up, while ADX is horizontal.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, but above the EMA50, all directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving down, while ADX is horizontal.
Key levels
Support levels: 14.00, 13.85, 13.67.
Resistance levels: 14.15, 14.39, 14.75, 14.99, 15.28, 15.51, 16.15, 16.34.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 14.15 with targets at 14.00, 13.85 and stop-loss at 14.30. Validity – 1-2 days.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 13.85 with the target at 14.25 and stop-loss at 13.67. Validity – 1-2 days
USD/CAD: pair growth and oil prices fall
Current trend
The Bank of Canada holds its monetary policy meeting today. As BoC Governor Stephen Poloz has repeatedly stated, the Regulator aims at keeping loose monetary policy and considers a possibility of a rate cut to -0.5%.
The Canadian currency is declining against the US Dollar amid a sharp fall in oil prices. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency reported oil supply might increase by 1.5 barrels per day in next six month. Moreover, oil prices are under pressure due to unfavorable conditions in global stock markets, China's stock market crash in particular.
In the given situation, the Bank of Canada might choose to wait on the sidelines and keep its interest rate on hold at 0.5% that, however, is unlikely to strengthen the national currency.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the year, USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 800 points.
OsMA and Stochastic on all timeframes, from 4-hour to monthly, recommend long positions. Any decline in the pair should be seen as a short-term correction.
Support levels: 1.4575, 1.4565, 1.4500, 1.4450, 1.4400.
Resistance levels: 1.4700.
Trading tips
Buy Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.4710 with targets at 1.4800, 1.4900 and stop-loss at 1.4670.
Sell Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.4550 with targets at 1.4450, 1.4400 and stop-loss at 1.4580.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid growing anxiety on the market due to declining oil prices. In addition, the Euro remained under pressure prior to the ECB Interest Rates Decision that is due later today. The decision could significantly affect dynamics in the pair.
At the same time, the pair was supported by data on the Consumer Price Index from the US that came out worse than expectations. In December, the index fell by 0.1%.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving in opposite directions, while ADX is horizontal.
Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0770 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0613, 1.0525 (beginning of December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0995, 1.1057 (middle of December 2015 highs).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0915 with targets at 1.0945, 1.0995 and stop-loss at 1.0900. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0863 with targets at 1.0802, 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0890. Validity – 1-2 days
AUD/USD: growth might resume
Current trend
On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair tested the level of 0.6950, the 23.6% Fibonacci correction level. The Australian currency managed to strengthen when the US released not so favorable December’s data on inflation. Though Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% in annual terms, it was 0.1% below the forecast. In monthly terms, the indicator was down to -0.1%. However, the pair is still under pressure from a gradual slowdown in China’s economy as the country is the largest trading partner of Australia
Support and resistance
The pair is heading to 0.6895, the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The breakdown of this level allows the pair to continue falling to 0.6835 and 0.6800. Alternatively, if the price turns up and overcomes the 23.6% Fibonacci level, it might grow further to 0.7020 and 0.7080.
Generally, according to technical indicators, the pair tends to grow. Bollinger Bands indicator is turning up. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are falling. Only Stochastic lines have crossed each other and turned down, forming a sell signal.
Support levels: 0.6950, 0.7020, 0.7080.
Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6835, 0.6800.
Trading tips
Long positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 0.6950 with targets at 0.7020, 0.7080. Moreover, Buy Limit orders can be placed at the level of 0.6895 with the target at 0.6950.
If the price consolidates below the level of 0.6895, short positions can be opened with targets at 0.6835 and 0.6800.
XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
The price of gold continues growing amid yesterday’s news regarding a possibility of the QE program expansion by the ECB. In the nearest future, the price is likely to grow to the level of 1112.50 where the pair traded at high volumes. After that, the price will fall.
Support and resistance
The RSI is below the 70 mark indicating that the growth can continue to the level of 1115.00.
Support levels: 1074.52 (moving average with 200 period).
Resistance levels: 1112.50.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1112.50 with the target at 1074.80 and stop-loss at 1114.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1114.00.
USD/JPY: no change in trend yet
Current trend
A growth in stock indices followed ECB President Mario Draghi comments on future monetary policy in the eurozone. Japanese stock index NikkeiStockAverage also gained support when an aide to Japanese Prime Minister pointed out that further easing of monetary policy is necessary. Together with the index, the USD/JPY pair is growing as well. If the Bank of Japan introduces additional stimulus measures, the pair will manage to gain back its recent losses.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Markit Manufacturing PMI for January and CB Leading Indicator for December, due in the US. If the indicators come in above the forecast, the USD/JPY pair will strengthen.
Support and resistance
During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair grew by 30 points from the level of 117.70 and continues moving up, having strengthened above the level of 118.20.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions. However, as long as the price remains below the level of 118.80, no significant growth is expected.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.40 with targets at 118.80, 119.20, 119.65, 120.00, 120.55 and stop-loss at 117.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 117.30 with targets at 117.00, 116.50, 116.10 and stop-loss at 117.80.
USD/CAD: pair fell
Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly fell amid substantial growth in oil prices.
In addition, the Canadian Dollar was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Canada. Retail Sales in November 2015 grew by 1.7% while economists predicted a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in December grew by 1.6%, against a 1.4% growth in the previous month that was, however, slightly worse than forecasts. Similar index by the Bank of Canada in December fell by 0.4% that was also a little worse than expectations.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic reached its critical level in the oversold zone thus limiting further fall potential.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.4100 (local low), 1.4050, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.3915, 1.3850, 1.3780, 1.3700.
Resistance levels: 1.4169 (local high), 142.00, 1.4245, 1.4315 (21 January high), 1.4400, 1.4450, 1.4500, 1.4609, 1.4700 (20 January high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.4100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.4200, 1.4250 and stop-loss at 1.4000. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.4100 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4150. Validity – 1-3 days
USD/JPY: ahead of BoJ meeting
Current trend
On Friday, the Bank of Japan releases its decisions on interest rates and quantitative and qualitative monetary easing programme. Last week, BoJ Governor stated the Regulator will not hesitate to adjust policy as needed to achieve the inflation target of 2%.
Amid a slowdown in Japan’s economic growth and, therefore, different approaches to monetary policy in the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is likely to grow in the medium term.
Support and resistance
By the opening of the European session, the USD/JPY pair declined by almost 50 points, but then managed to gain back some of its losses, having found a support at 117.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the hourly chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the monthly chart recommend short positions. The indicators on the daily chart are giving sell signals; on the weekly chart, they have started turning to long positions as well. However, according to the indicators on the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue moving down in the short term.
After the breakdown of the support levels of 117.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the hourly chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) and 117.40, a decline will continue towards 116.00 (lower border of a descending channel on the daily chart).
As an alternative scenario, the price might overcome the resistance levels of 118.70 (EMA144), 119.20 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continue growing towards 120.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 120.55 (61.8% Fibonacci and ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 117.90, 117.40, 117.00.
Resistance levels: 118.70, 119.20, 120.00, 120.55.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.40 with targets at 118.70, 119.20, 120.00, 120.50 and stop-loss at 117.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 117.30 with targets at 117.00, 116.50, 116.10 and stop-loss at 117.70.
NZD/USD: investors waiting for interest rates decisions
Current trend
This week, the NZ Dollar, like other commodity currencies, is losing its positions again, following a decline in the price of oil. The price of oil is under pressure from concerns that an oversupply of the global oil market might deepen.
On Wednesday, market participants will turn their attention to the publications of interest rate decisions in the US and New Zealand. Further dynamics in the NZD/USD pair will largely depend on these releases.
Support and resistance
The pair is trading at the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, 0.6480. The breakout of this level leads to a growth to 0.6540. Otherwise, the price might decline back to 0.6420. In the short term, the pair is likely to remain within the range of 0.6540-0.6420.
Technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is about to enter the negative zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic is directed up.
Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6370.
Resistance levels: 0.6480, 0.6540, 0.6625.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6490 with the target at 0.6540. Pending sell orders should be placed at the level of 0.6540 with targets at 0.6480 and 0.6420.