Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS - page 10
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
27 November 2013: Nasdaq Subdued The Level Of 4000 Points
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main stock indices. The Standard & Poor's 500 index managed to keep over the level of 1800 points, whereas the index of blue chips Dow Jones is traded over the level of 16 000 points.
A considerable volume of statistics, which caused mixed reaction in the markets, were published yesterday. Housing prices in 20 capital regions of the USA in 12 months with the termination in September, increased to the maximum size since February 2006, which signals improvement on the housing market. Moreover, the number of permissions for construction of houses in October increased by 6.2%, which was more than expected. At the same time, data on the index of consumer confidence for November disappointed investors, the indicator, contrary to expectations, decreased from the reconsidered 72.4 points to 70.4 points, whereas retreat only to 72.9 points was expected.
Let's note that in the last half an hour of the trading session, indices reduced the obtained gain almost to zero as institutional investors tried to consider changes in structures of the MSCI indices coming into force. Despite that, the index of the hi-tech sector Nasdaq Composite managed to finish the session above the level of 4000 points for the first time since 2000.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average finished on the same price as the previous day at the level of 16072.80 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.1% to a level of 1802.75 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to a plus on 0.58% and reached the level of 4017.75 points.
Commodities prices are stable, Brent is adding 0.06% and is traded on a level of 110.95$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.25% at price of 93.45$. Gold and Silver are adding 0.39% and 0.32% accordingly, traded on a level of 1246.20$ and 19.91$ per troy ounce.
Due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, traditional weekly demands for unemployment benefits will be published today. Surprises are not expected, after the jump due to the budgetary crisis to 370 thousand, for weeks in a row now it has tended to decrease. The last value made 323 thousand, which, historically, is a rather low level.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
28 November 2013: The US Market Is Going To Be Closed In Honor Of Thanksgiving Day Celebration
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main stock indices. Indices were getting support from the published macroeconomic statistical data, and the hi-tech sector looked better than the market due to the successful reporting of Hewlett-Packard. The price of shares of the producer of the computer equipment, Hewlett-Packard, jumped up by 9.1% against the publication of the quarterly report. The company revenue in three months decreased from $29.96 billion a year earlier, to $29.1 billion whilst analysts expected only $27.8 billion.
Let’s be reminded that according to the published data, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits for last week was reduced from the reconsidered 326 thousand, to 316 thousand, whereas an increase to 330 thousand was expected. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in November decreased more than was expected to 63 points, average forecasts being at the level of 60, and the index of consumer confidence of university of Michigan for the current month, showed an increase from 72 points to 75.1, although an increase of only 73.5 points was expected. Disappointment occurred due to data on orders for long using goods for October. The indicator was reduced by 2%, which was slightly stronger than expectations.
So, successful confluence of encouraging macroeconomic statistics helped all three stock indices of the USA to go over some important trading levels. Even the trading volumes were lower than usual yesterday, due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day, when the exchanges will be closed.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.15% to the level of 16097.33 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.25% to a level of 1807.23 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0.67% and reached the level of 4044.75 points.
In the commodity market, Brent is adding in price and has managed to go over the level of 111.00$. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 111.42$ per barrel, and increasing by 0.09%. Light, at the same time, is falling in price, traded on the price of 92.22$ per barrel and decreasing by 0.08%. Gold and Silver are stable in the levels metals were yesterday. Gold is up by 0.09% on a level of 1238.95$ per troy ounce, Silver is up by 0.11% at price of 19.66$ per troy ounce.
As for the EUR/USD currency pair, the Euro continues to become stronger. EUR/USD had basis to continue strengthening as since the morning, the markets received news that Angela Merkel's block could create a coalition with the social democrats. It was quite an expected event, however this still encouraged demand for the pair. There was positive growth of the indicator of business climate in Germany. The index became stronger to 7.4 from the previous 7.1, which also played a supporting role. Today we shall pay attention to the labor market of Germany, and if the indicators will be positive again, the pair will be able to resume growth with the next purpose on 1.3640.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
29 November 2013: Investors Begin To Guess When The Rally In The Market Of The USA Will End
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday the trading session in Europe was rather quiet with just a small increase of the main indices. The statistics, which were published yesterday had a moderately positive character. So, unemployment in Germany in November appeared at the level of expectations and didn't change in comparison with to the previous month – 6.9%. The index of business climate in the Eurozone considerably surpassed the forecast, and made 0.18 points instead of the expected 0.03 points. The consumer price index in Germany in November also appeared to be slightly higher than expectations, which should weaken deflationary fears. As a result, the index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100, grew by 0.08%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40, by 0.22%, and the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX, by 0.39%.
Asian indices did not show uniform dynamics this morning. Unemployment in Japan for October appeared above expectations of the market and made 4%. The consumer price index coincided with forecasts and made 0.9%. As a result, the Japanese Nikkei decreased by 0.41%, and the Korean KOSPI, by 0.24%. Shanghai Composite grew by 0.07%, and the Hang Seng by 0.2%.
Participants of the world market, independently from the stock market they are trading in, now follow the American stock market with close attention. Everybody is interested in the outcome of the record rally of the US stock indices seen this year. That it will continue, everyone doubts, trees don't grow to heavens! Consequences of this outcome will be felt by the US, as well as all other stock markets.
Be reminded that on Sunday night preliminary estimates of the season of sales in America will become known, and there is a big share of probability that demand of consumers this year will be weaker, and the data on the whole will show negative results, which certainly could lead to correction. This is basis to believe that next week we will see the beginning of the correction on the American and other world stock markets.
Friday becomes a rather busy day from the point of view of macroeconomic statistics. Early in the morning, Japanese data confirmed preservation of annual inflation at the level of 1.1%, which is a good signal for the government which has set a purpose to overcome long-term deflation for stimulation of business activity in the country. In the European region the main data to be published this week, indicators of the labor market, and we expect at least a minor improvement of the coefficient of unemployment.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
02 December 2013: “Christmas Rally” - To Be, Or Not To Be?!
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
We are entering December, the last month of 2013. The current week is the first working week of the new month, and therefore will be traditionally saturated with important macroeconomic statistics and events, capable to have an essential impact on the stock, commodities and currencies markets, and also will set the mood of investors for all of December. Very soon we will be able to judge whether participants of the markets will be able to see a traditional “Christmas rally" or, after this year, December will become a correctional month at stock markets.
The external background at the beginning of the week can be described as poorly negative. The trading session in the US on Friday came to an end with the indices reaching different results. The traditional season of Christmas sales started on Friday in America, which pushed prices of the American retailers considerably up. Retail sales is a key factor of the national economy of the US, as two thirds of business activity are based on consumer expenses.
Usually during the Christmas period, the trading companies receive up to 40% of annual revenue. According to data of ComScore, online sales on "Black Friday" increased by 15%, and reached a record of $1.2 billion, thus for the first 29 days of the festive season, which begun on November 1, the general Internet sales made $20.6 billion which was 3.1% higher than data of the same period of last year. It should be noted that online purchases on Thanksgiving Day, grew, in turn, by 21% to $766 million.
However, only Nasdaq managed to finish the trading day in "a green zone", which added 0.37% and finished trading day at the level of 4059.89 points. Dow Jones lost 0.07% falling down to the level of 16086.41 points, and S&P 500 lost 0.08% decreasing to 1805.81 points.
Asian platform this morning are prevailing "bear" moods. The index of the Chinese stock market Shanghai Composite decreases by 0.82% after the publication of the corrected data on business activity in the country industry. So, according to the estimates of HSBC, PMI value in November made 50.8 points, when 50.4 points were declared earlier. NBS recalculation didn't bring any unpleasant surprises. The indicator remained at the level of 51.4 points. Also, Korean KOSPI decreases on Monday by 0.6%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng manages to grow up 0.54%.
In the commodities market, Oil is more or less on the levels reached last week. Brent bargains at the level of $109.68 for barrel adding in price 0.31%, Light is up by 0.47%, at the level of 93.45$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are losing their value in price. Gold is down for 0.32% at the level of 1246.35$ per troy ounce, and Silver is decreasing by 0.89% at the price of 19.86$ per troy ounce.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
03 December 2013: Statistics In The USA Didn't Inspire Investors On Rally Continuation
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday, the American stock market finished the trading session with a moderate fall due to profit fixing. Most likely, after a few advantageous weeks, investors decided to take a break before the FED meeting in December. The good figures published on the industry didn't inspire purchases.
As it became known from the ISM report, the American industry unexpectedly grew in November, and the index of economic conditions of ISM in the production sphere jumped to 57.3 points from 56.4 points, while a decrease to 55 points was predicted. Yesterday there were also statistics published on expenses on construction for 2 months at once. In September, the indicator was reduced by 0.3%, but in October it showed a 0.8% growth at average expectations of 0.4%.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with a minus of 0.48% on a level of 16008.77 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.27% to the level of 1800.90, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq, receded by 0.36% to a level of 4045.26 points. The current level of 1800 points for S&P 500 seems to be attracting a high volume and number of market participants, and thus we assume that a move from this level will be prompt and rather strong.
The trading session on the Asian platforms takes place mainly in the red zone. Independently stands the Japanese Nikkei, growing due to the falling Yen. An important event for the markets has been the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the interest rate at the level of 2.5%, at the same time other comments of the regulator were painted in rather negative colors.
Prices of Oil this morning are stable on the levels reached yesterday. Brent is flat traded on a level of 111.04$ per barrel, and WTI is adding 0.34% in value, traded on a level of 94.42$ per barrel. Precious metals fell under essential pressure at the beginning of the week. Quotations of Gold lost more than 2.5%, and Silver almost 4%. This morning, Gold and Silver are again losing in price, Gold is decreasing by 0.03% at a price of 1221.60$ per troy ounce, Silver is down by 0.17% at the level of 19.26$ per troy ounce.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
04 December 2013: Oil Quotations Showed Growth Waiting For OPEC Meeting
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Participants of the markets are again beginning to worry about the possible turning of the stimulating programs by the FED in the USA possibly in December, due to the improvement of statistics on the American labor market. The American indices closed the third trading session in a row in "the red zone". The negative is connected with the recognition of that the city of Detroit could become, on an official basis, bankrupt, and it creates precedent for other cities as well.
As a result, the Dow Jones index lost 0.59% and dropped below the level of 16000.00 to 15914.62 points. S&P decreased by 0.32% to a level of 1795.15 points, giving up the psychologically important level of 18000.00 points. Nasdaq appeared in a minus for 0.19% at the level of 4037.20 points.
Asian stock markets mainly stayed in the negative territory, following the American indices as important statistics, which could've given support to Asian platforms, weren't published. It should be noted that the Chinese Shanghai Composite index shows strengthening of positions, despite statements of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that target indicators of growth of the economy next year could be lowered to 7%, from the present 7.5%. Support to the Chinese Shanghai Composite is given by the publication of the index of business activity in the services sector according to the HSBC version, which showed an insignificant decrease to 52.5 points.
Oil quotations on Tuesday showed growth waiting for the meeting of member countries of OPEC, moreover, “black gold” is supported by news regarding the fast start of part of the Keystone Oil pipeline in the USA. Meanwhile, the minister of Oil of Libya, Abdulbari Al Arusi, declared on Wednesday that the country will restore Oil production in full, within 10 days. This news could put pressure on Oil prices, which managed to increase during the trading session yesterday.
Brent managed to increase to the level of 112.24$ per barrel, adding this morning 0.09%, WTI is leading with an increase of 1.15% up to the level of 97.34$ per barrel.
This week markets are waiting for important macroeconomic data on November unemployment, and the revised data on gross domestic product in the USA for the third quarter. Moods of investors will depend on that data for the near-term outlook. Also, today figures on Oil stocks in the USA will be published.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
05 December 2013: The End Of The Year In The Markets Promises To Be hot!
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
On Wednesday, the American stock markets closed the trading session in a minus against speculation over the QE3 program turning already in December. The main sign and, probably, the only reason for renewal of conversations on repayment of bonds, was the indicator of employment of ADP for the November, which considerably exceeded forecasts of experts of 173 thousand and made 215 thousand. In case of high data on the labor market of the USA, which will be published on Friday, most likely, we are going to see a fascinating ending to the year, thus in November hearings about reduction of volume of repayment of bonds practically weren't conducted.
Meanwhile, some other important statistical indicators appeared to be worse than market forecasts, which also had its influence and did not allow indices to lose much more in value. First of all, we will pay attention to the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere for November, which fell from 55.4 in October, to 53.9, whilst analytics were predicting 55. Deficiency of trade balance of the country, in turn, appeared above expectations of economists of $40 billion, and made $40.64 billion. The statistics on sales of new houses in the USA, published the previous day for 2 months, due to closure of government offices in October, also did not bring anything positive to the markets. For October, the indicator slightly exceeded forecasts of analysts, and in September, it was much lower than expectations.
As a result, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, decreased by 0.16% and was closed on a level of 15 889.8 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus by 0.13% to the level of 1 792.81 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, grew by 0.02% to a level of 4 038 points.
Oil isn't ready to lose the positions and tries to keep at levels reached at the beginning of the week. Light this morning is adding 0.05%, and is traded on a level of 97.48$. Brent is slightly down on 0.27% on a level of 111.13$ per barrel. Precious metals oppositely are losing in price, Gold is decreasing by 0.67% at a price of 1238.80$ per troy ounce, Silver is down by 0.88% at price of 19.66$ per troy ounce.
After yesterday's block of statistics in the USA, all attention gradually switches over to actions of the Central Banks. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are going to have meetings today. If the English regulator can keep the status quo, everybody is waiting for continuation on monetary policy mitigation from the European Central Bank.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
06 December 2013: The Markets Are Waiting For Evening Statistics From The USA
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Again the markets appeared under oppression of the expected reduction of QE3. Investors expect that the FED will make the decision to reduce the volume of the program of quantitative easing at the meeting of the FOMC in December. The question of reduction of the program of quantitative stimulation will be discussed at the FED meeting, which will take place on the 17th-18th of December, which was declared by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart. He does not have a voting right and didn't express his opinion regarding QE3 program reduction, however, he declared that if the decision will be taken, it is worth beginning to think about the start of the recovery of the economy of the country.
The block of statistical data which was published yesterday was negative, from the point of view of a toughening of the policy by the FED. In the 3rd quarter, the economy of the US showed maximal levels of growth since the beginning of 2012. Gross domestic product of the country grew by 3.6%, though earlier it was reported about growth of only 2.8%. Analysts expected revision of growth of the American gross domestic product to be 3.1%. The number of demands for unemployment benefits in the USA last week was reduced by 23 thousand and made 298 thousand, expected growth being at 4 thousand. Today we expect important data on November unemployment in the USA. These figures are going to be the main influencing factor which is going to set the mood of investors until the upcoming FED meeting.
Nevertheless, the spirit in the Asian markets since the morning was moderately positive. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.2%. Nikkei added nearly 1%. Yesterday, European stock markets drifted in neutral territory at the opening of the trading session, but by the end of the day, the American statistics and Draghi’s statement pushed them to go down. FTSEurofirst 300 lost 0.96%, IBEX index in Spain decreased by 1.56% and FTSE MIB in Italy lost 1.75%. The bank of England and the European Central Bank left interest rates without change. Draghi, also during his press-conference, reported that the European Central Bank is ready to act further, but did not decide yet what kind of actions to choose. Comments of Draghi provoked sharp strengthening of the Euro.
This morning, EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3658 points. Brent is up by 0.34% at price of 110.94$, WTI is up by 0.09% at the price of 97.70$. Gold and Silver are flat at the levels of 1231.91$ and 19.55$ per troy ounce accordingly.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
09 December 2013: The Positive Statistics Inspired Investors
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
On Friday the 6th of December, the American statistical bodies published a lot of the major American macroeconomic indicators. Despite the importance of each of them, the greatest interest was represented by the results of a detailed inspection of the national labor market, which is a priority for the assessment of the current state and prospects of the American economy. The central place was taken by the employment in the non-agricultural sector of the country.
Monthly extension of pay-sheets in the non-agricultural sector in November was estimated at 180-185 thousand, but actual growth was significantly higher than the predicted limits and made 203 thousand. Audits underwent the previous data on increase in employment in this sector. In November, the private sector added 196 thousand new regular positions, being expected at 180 thousand.
Afterwards, the focus of attention shifted towards another very significant indicator - a preliminary index of consumer confidence of Michigan university, which, in December, grew 82.5 points from 75.1 points in November, to the maximum level since July. Analysts were predicting a more modest advance to 76.0 points. Improvement of the consumer spirit of Americans and their readiness to strengthen consumer activity, was promoted by a certain improvement of the economic situation and encouraging shifts on the labor markets in the USA.
Thankfully, due to all this data, on Friday we could see the long-awaited change in the moods of the investors, who, lately, were having doubts regarding the inevitable approaching terms of reduction of volumes of financial stimulation from the FED. This time, players reacted to successful statistics on employment and consumer confidence adequately, and the markets showed steady growth from the very beginning of the trading session. However, even with significant growth following the results of the day, it couldn't compensate for the loss of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices that interrupted their long advantageous series of 8 weeks.
As a result, the Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 1.26% to 16020.20 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index increased by 1.12%, having closed at the level of 1805.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised on 0.73% to value of 4062.52 points.
The price of Gold this morning continues to fall, and Gold is traded on a level of 1227.84$. Silver is also losing 0.09% in value being at a price of 19.51$ per troy ounce. Investment appeal of Gold as a form of 'safe' investment, decreased against encouraging American data on employment.
Oil prices in the meantime managed to keep their gains and this morning continue to show positive dynamics. Brent is on a level of 111.34$ per barrel, increasing by 0.11%; WTI is up by 0.08% on a level of 97.98$ per barrel. Oil increased in price against very positive data on the American labor markets and consumer confidence, which gives strong grounds to count on an increase in demand for energy carriers. For the last week, the total increase of prices for Oil made 5.3%, which is the best result since July.
The main event of this week is going to be the report on retails for November, which will be published on Thursday. Participants will gradually be preparing for the meeting of FED planned for December 17-18. Respectively, we should very closely follow the speech of the "FED’s loud-hailer" - James Bullard - who, today, will address the representatives of the CFA association.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
10 December 2013: Markets Move Carefully Before FED Meeting
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
The stock markets proceeded with careful growth. In the morning, the quotation of risky assets were supported by data on growth of the Chinese export in November by 12.7% after a growth of 5.6% in October. This data was regarded not only as positive for the economy, but also as a testimony of growing world demand. It should be noted that investors aren't rushing to draw conclusions about an early beginning of turning of stimulating measures from the FED, after obtaining strong data on gross domestic product of the USA for the III quarter, and strong statistics on the American labor market in November. So, the index of the wide market S&P 500 reached a new historical record yesterday.
As a result of the trading session, the Dow Jones increased by 0.03% up to the level of 16025.53 points. Nasdaq added 0.15% and reached a level of 4068.75 points, and S&P 500 increased by 0.18% up to the level of 1808.37 points.
Yesterday, markets also heard the opinion of two representatives of the FED, both of them being relatively positive. There was a statement from the head of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, who, in the current year, has the right to vote at meetings. He reported that the latest improvements on the labor market increase the probability of fast reduction of stimulating measures, however, these actions have to be undertaken carefully, as inflation is at minimum levels. The statement from the head of FED of Dallas, Richard Fischer, who will acquire a vote for FOMC next year were surer. He called the current time 'suitable' to start the turning of volumes of QE, however, he also explained that any operations of the regulator have to proceed in the conditions of full clarity and transparency for the markets.
According to recent polls of Bloomberg, about 34% of economists and analysts expect the beginning of turning of volumes of quantitative incentives at the December meeting, thus the vast majority is sure that at the end of the I quarter 2014, the volume of purchases of assets from the FED will be less than the current 85 billion Dollars a month.
The beginning of the new week in the commodity markets was negative, pressure on which has been amplified due to a number of objective reasons. Quotations of Oil and the majority of metals considerably decreased yesterday after the publication of statistical data from China and Germany. The volume of import to China in November slowed down in growth rates from 7.6% to 5.3% in annual expression. Besides, industrial production volume in Germany in October unexpectedly decreased to a minimum since May values, having fallen by 1.2% in September against forecasts of growth of 0.9%. Additional pressure upon Oil quotations was observed, due to the first meeting which begun in Vienna, of experts of Iran and six other countries, concerning development of mechanisms of implementation of the interim agreement reached at the end of November.
Brent is traded on a level of 109.63$ per barrel adding 0.45%, WTI is on a price of 97.95$ per barrel increasing by 0.40%. Gold is up by 0.87% at price of
1244.98$ per troy ounce, and Silver is trying to get back what was lost last week, and is up by 1.22%, at a price of 19.94$ per troy ounce.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd